Robinhood Stock Price Forecast - HOOD at $71: Crypto Crash Pain, Margin Story Intact

Robinhood Stock (NASDAQ:HOOD) – Crypto Reset, Margin Engine and Valuation Test

Robinhood Stock (NASDAQ:HOOD): Price, Range and Current Sentiment

Robinhood stock (NASDAQ:HOOD) trades near $71.55, sharply below the recent peak above $153.86 and down from a previous close of $78.07, after moving in a $71.55–$79.00 range during the latest session. The current market cap is about $65.3 billion, the trailing P/E is roughly 35x, and the 52-week range runs from $29.66 at the low end to that $153.86 high. The market has repriced the name aggressively after Q4 2025, even though 2025 as a full year delivered record numbers on revenue, deposits, and client assets. Sentiment right now is dominated by the crypto drawdown and margin compression in Q4, not by the structural progress in the business model, which creates a disconnect that needs to be dissected in detail.

Full-Year 2025 Performance – Revenue, Assets and Monetization Profile

Across 2025, Robinhood generated roughly $4.5 billion in revenue, marking a record year for the platform. Total platform assets reached about $324 billion, up around 68% year-on-year, indicating that more capital is being parked and actively managed on NASDAQ:HOOD. Net deposits over the year totaled roughly $68 billion, and while quarterly flows slowed in Q4 versus Q3, the annual figure still underlines strong inflows. Monetization per account is trending higher: average revenue per user climbed from around $151 to $191, a 16% year-over-year increase, even if it flattened sequentially into Q4. That figure matters because it shows that Robinhood is not just adding new accounts; it is extracting more revenue per existing relationship through a broader product set, higher balances, and deeper engagement.

Q4 2025 Reset – What Actually Went Wrong for NASDAQ:HOOD

The Q4 release that triggered the current selloff printed $1.28 billion in revenue, up about 27% year-on-year but below expectations near $1.34 billion. Net profit fell from roughly $916 million in the prior-year quarter to around $605 million, with per-share earnings sliding from about $1.01 to $0.66. Operating expenses jumped roughly 38% to around $633 million, pulling the operating margin down from about 54.8% a year earlier to roughly 50.7%. That margin compression, combined with a top-line miss against a bar that had been raised after multiple upward estimate revisions, is what broke short-term confidence. The key driver of disappointment was the crypto line. Crypto transaction revenue came in around $221 million, down about 38% year-on-year from roughly $358 million and lower sequentially despite help from the Bitstamp acquisition. At the same time, December retail data in the macro backdrop and more cautious commentary around consumer strength added to the narrative that transactional activity could cool further. The market reacted by marking down NASDAQ:HOOD as if the entire growth story were a pure crypto play, even though crypto represented only about 18% of total revenue for the year.

Crypto Winter Impact – Real Hit, but Only One Piece of the Engine

Crypto exposure is the most volatile line in the income statement and the main source of earnings noise. In 2025, Robinhood generated close to $1 billion in crypto revenue, but that sum still represented only around 18% of the full-year top line. In Q4, crypto assets as a share of platform assets dropped from around 11% in the first three quarters to about 8.6%, reflecting both price declines and lower engagement. January metrics showed crypto trading volume down roughly 57% to about $8.7 billion, signaling that the pressure has continued into early 2026. Given that commissions are a percentage of notional traded, a 50%+ drop in the underlying price plus weaker volumes creates a strong double impact on crypto transaction revenue. This drag is real and will keep quarter-to-quarter results choppy while the crypto market works through its reset. However, the revenue mix already shifted meaningfully away from a single-line dependency. With less than a fifth of revenue tied directly to crypto and the rest driven by options, equities, net interest income, and subscriptions, crypto weakness hits the growth rate but does not break the model.

Options, Prediction Markets and Net Interest Income – the Underappreciated Growth Pillars

The key point the market is underpricing is how broad the revenue base has become. In Q4, options trading generated roughly $314 million in revenue, exceeding crypto and staying in growth mode even as sequential momentum slowed. Equities trading revenue also increased by roughly 54% year-on-year, showing that Robinhood still gains share in classic brokerage flows. The most important structural shift is net interest income, which reached about $411 million in Q4 as client cash, margin balances, and securities lending scale with platform assets. On top of that, there is a near-annuity layer from subscriptions and other lines. Gold subscriptions, which give paying clients research tools and AI-assisted ideas, grew about 58% year-over-year to around 4.2 million in Q4 after a 77% increase the prior quarter to 3.9 million, creating a stable recurring revenue base. Across the product set, Robinhood now counts 11 separate lines with more than $100 million in annualized revenue, which demonstrates that the company has moved far beyond its original single-product identity. Prediction markets are a long-duration call option on top of this. Estimates put the global prediction market volume at around $63.5 billion, with the potential to expand to roughly $1 trillion by 2030. Robinhood generated about $110 million in prediction markets revenue in Q4 and roughly $300 million in 2025 on about 12 billion contracts traded. January already saw 3.4 billion contracts, with catalysts like the Super Bowl and the Olympics still adding volume. Even if competitive platforms such as Coinbase, DraftKings, Kalshi and Polymarket are aggressive, there is clear room for Robinhood to multiply this business several times if it executes.

User Growth, Deposits and Engagement – Is NASDAQ:HOOD Still Gaining Ground?

Despite the noisy Q4 snapshot, user and asset metrics are still moving in the right direction. Total platform assets climbed to about $324 billion, a 68% year-on-year jump. Net deposits in Q4 were around $15.9 billion, which translated into an annualized 19% growth rate versus beginning-of-quarter assets; this was down from about $20.4 billion and a 29% annualized rate in Q3, but still indicates that more money is flowing in than out. Average revenue per user at roughly $191 is up 16% year-over-year, which confirms that clients are using more products and giving Robinhood broader access to balances and flows. Management has also begun leaning into features that promote deeper engagement and stickiness, such as retail short selling, which launched in mid-November and already saw “billions of notional” traded, and more sophisticated tools bundled into Gold. As these advanced features become standard for active accounts, the platform shifts from a lightweight entry app to a full-featured environment where switching away becomes more painful. That stickiness is critical if Robinhood wants to justify premium multiples and continue flexing pricing power across products.

Margin Expansion, Operating Leverage and the Cost Line

The structural story is still about operating leverage. In Q4, Robinhood booked roughly $1.28 billion in revenue, broken down into about $776 million in brokerage transaction revenue, $411 million in net interest income and around $96 million in other revenue. Operating income grew about 98% year-on-year, a direct result of high incremental margins on new revenue. Net margin sits around 52%, already in the territory of elite financial platforms, even after the Q4 cost uptick. The Q4 margin compression from about 54.8% to 50.7% reflects two elements: a mix shift away from high-margin crypto and a conscious decision to spend on growth, technology and compliance. If revenue growth resumes at even mid-teens rates and operating expenses normalize at a slower trajectory than the top line, there is room for net margins to migrate toward the 60–70% range over time, closer to where established players like Interactive Brokers operate with net income margins around 75%. That margin headroom is a critical part of the equity thesis: small improvements in efficiency or yields on client balances can create outsized EPS leverage.

Valuation Versus Growth Outlook and Peers – Does 35x P/E Make Sense?

On current numbers, NASDAQ:HOOD trades at roughly 35x trailing earnings and around 34–35x forward earnings, with consensus projecting that the multiple will compress toward about 31x over the next 24 months as earnings grow faster than the share price. Revenue expectations call for a move from about $4.5 billion in 2025 to roughly $6.4 billion in 2027, which implies high-teens compound growth rather than hypergrowth. On price-to-sales, the stock sits around 10x projected 2027 revenue, which is rich in absolute terms but not out of line for a high-margin platform with multiple early-stage growth levers. By comparison, the broad market trades at a blended P/E in the mid-20s, while peers like Interactive Brokers and SoFi carry lower multiples but also different business mixes and margin profiles. At prior peaks above $150, Robinhood was priced for near-perfect execution across crypto, prediction markets and broader financial services, with a forward P/E north of 70x in some periods. The reset to the mid-30s P/E range, alongside clear evidence of margin expansion, diversified revenue and strong asset growth, shifts the risk-reward profile from speculative to more balanced. The current price embeds a meaningful discount to the long-term margin and revenue potential but still demands real execution and sustained growth.

Key Risks – Crypto Exposure, Competitive Pressure and Rate Sensitivity

The first obvious risk is that the current crypto winter lasts longer and cuts deeper than expected. With crypto revenues still around 18% of the total and historically delivering very high incremental margins, sustained weakness in prices and volumes would keep earnings volatility high and may cap near-term upside. The second major risk is competition across prediction markets, crypto and core brokerage. Platforms like Coinbase and DraftKings are investing heavily in prediction markets, while private players such as Kalshi and Polymarket push innovation on event contracts. In core trading and wealth, Interactive Brokers, legacy banks, and super-apps are all fighting for the same high-value users. Intense competition can compress transaction spreads, erode fee income, and increase customer acquisition costs. The third structural risk is interest rate sensitivity. Net interest income of roughly $411 million in Q4 is tied to the current rate environment. If the Federal Reserve moves into an aggressive cutting cycle, yields on client cash and margin decline, and net interest income growth can stall or reverse even if balances grow. Finally, the valuation, while reset, is still above market averages. A broad equity market correction or a risk-off turn in tech and financials would likely hit NASDAQ:HOOD harder than defensive names because of the higher multiple and beta.

NASDAQ:HOOD – Buy, Sell or Hold After the Crypto and Q4 Reset

Putting the pieces together, the stock at around $71–$72 reflects a business that the market currently values mainly through the lens of crypto volatility and a soft Q4, while the underlying structure looks considerably stronger than that narrow story. The company delivered $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025, $68 billion in net deposits, $324 billion in client assets, double-digit ARPU growth and net margins above 50%. Crypto revenue of about $221 million in Q4 is important but no longer dominates the mix; options, equities, prediction markets, subscriptions and net interest income together account for more than 80% of the top line. There are 11 products already over $100 million in annualized revenue, Gold subscriptions are growing 58% year-on-year to 4.2 million users, and new tools like retail short selling and AI-driven assistance deepen platform stickiness. Against that, the stock trades at roughly 35x earnings and about 10x forward sales, down from far richer valuations when it traded above $150. That multiple is still premium but is now anchored by proven profitability and multiple levers for growth rather than pure story. On that combination of factors, the setup justifies a Buy stance with a clear caveat: positioning should be built on weakness, not chased on sharp bounces. The current zone near $70 is already attractive for gradual accumulation, with any forced selling toward the $60 area increasing the asymmetry in favor of the long side, as long as the structural metrics on margins, deposits and product usage continue to move in the right direction.

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