Solana Price Forecast: SOL-USD Battles To Defend $100 As Bears Eye Deeper Losses

Solana (SOL-USD) Price – Breakdown, Oversold Signals And Real Risk Levels

Solana (SOL-USD) Around 100 Dollars – Where The Market Actually Trades Now

Solana (SOL-USD) has moved from controlled consolidation into a clean downside trend and is now trading around the 100–105 dollar band after briefly breaking below 100 dollars for the first time in roughly nine months. Spot levels are fluctuating near 103.70 dollars, with a 24-hour low around 96.60 dollars and a high near 105.45 dollars, putting the market cap close to 58.75 billion dollars and 24-hour volume above 8.7 billion dollars. Over the last week Solana has dropped more than 15%, and the last seven days show a slide of about -15.4%, confirming that the dominant direction is down, not sideways. The move is happening in a stressed macro crypto tape: the total crypto market cap has fallen to roughly 2.54 trillion dollars with more than 500 billion dollars erased in a few sessions, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has collapsed into “extreme fear” territory around 14, which tells you this is broad risk-off, not an isolated SOL headline.

Derivatives Positioning In Solana – Funding, Leverage And Forced Selling Pressure

Derivatives data is fully aligned with the downside in SOL-USD and is not signalling a strong contrarian bottom yet. OI-weighted funding on perpetual futures turned negative, flipped below zero over the weekend and is sitting roughly between –0.0080% and –0.0057%, which means shorts are paying longs to stay in the trade because the majority of leverage is positioned for further declines. Long-to-short ratios on major venues hover around 0.94–0.97, so there are clearly more short accounts than long accounts on leverage, and that skew has persisted across sessions. Liquidation data confirms who is losing: around 35.3 million dollars in Solana positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with approximately 24.7 million dollars of that coming from long positions, showing late buyers trying to catch “cheap” levels around 117–120 dollars are being taken out as price pushes into the 100–95 dollar pocket. This combination – negative funding, sub-1.0 long/short ratios, and long liquidations dominating – is exactly what you expect in a trend leg down, not at the end of a completed washout.

Solana Spot ETF Flows – First Weekly Outflow Signals Institutional De-Risking

Institutional behaviour through spot ETFs has turned from a quiet tailwind into a mild headwind for Solana (SOL-USD). After a series of weeks with net inflows into Solana spot ETFs following launch, the last week printed the first net outflow, around 2.45 million dollars leaving the structures. On its own that number is not huge, but the direction shift matters: the marginal large capital is now redeeming rather than subscribing. If these outflows repeat or expand over the coming weeks, ETF desks will keep selling spot SOL into weakness to meet redemptions, adding structural supply on top of derivatives-driven selling. For now, the data describes an early de-risking phase: institutional money is not panic-dumping, but it has clearly stopped chasing upside and has started taking chips off the table, which caps the odds of a V-shape reversal from this first touch of 100 dollars.

Solana (SOL-USD) Market Structure – From 117–147 Dollar Range To A Clear Downtrend

Price structure on Solana is now objectively bearish on both 4-hour and daily charts. For an extended period, SOL traded in a broad 117–147 dollar range, using the lower 117 support band and the upper 140–147 zone as the main auction edges. That range has been broken decisively to the downside: first, price failed to hold above 130–140 dollars, then it lost the 120 dollar floor and accelerated lower into the 100–95 region. From that point, the candle sequence has been consistent with a trend leg, not a random spike: lower highs and lower lows, a descending channel structure and repeated rejections at the upper boundary of that channel on attempts to recover. Value-area analysis showed that SOL slipped below its local value-area low, transitioning from a balanced range to a directional imbalance where sellers control the auction. The break below 100 dollars intraday confirms that the market is now testing fresh territory under the former range rather than oscillating inside it.

Momentum And Oscillators On SOL-USD – RSI, MACD, MFI And Awesome Oscillator

Momentum indicators on SOL-USD show a market that is stretched to the downside but still trending, not yet showing classical reversal structures. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index has dropped to around 25, which is deep oversold territory and reflects the violence of the recent leg from 120–130 dollars down to sub-100 levels. On lower timeframes such as the 4-hour chart, RSI trades close to 30.03, also oversold, but without a clear bullish divergence – price keeps making new local lows without RSI forming higher lows, which means sellers remain in charge despite short-term exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator turned bearish back around January 19 and remains decisively negative: the MACD line is well below the signal line and the histogram bars are still expanding on the downside, signalling that negative momentum is persistent rather than flattening. Money Flow Index is sliding towards oversold on the daily frame, showing sustained capital outflows rather than capitulation-then-recovery; money is leaving SOL, not rotating aggressively back in yet. The Awesome Oscillator sits below zero with repeated red histogram prints, confirming that bearish momentum dominates on the broader trend. Together, these tools describe a market that is oversold enough to justify relief rallies but not yet showing the classic structural momentum shift needed for a reliable bottom call.

Key Support And Resistance Levels For Solana (SOL-USD) – 100, 95, 79, 126, 146, 150 Dollars

The current fight in Solana (SOL-USD) is centred on a tight cluster of well-defined levels that now act as decision points. On the downside, the first and most obvious level is the 100 dollar psychological handle, which is now being tested as both intraday resistance and support. A firm daily close below 100 dollars opens the way to the April 7 swing low around 95.26 dollars; that low is the next concrete demand zone, and several analyses align around 95 as the first meaningful downside target once 100 is lost on a closing basis. Under 95, the market eyes the January 23, 2024 low near 79 dollars as the next historical support, which would represent a reset of a large portion of the 2025 rally. Some structural work also highlights an intermediate demand cluster around 94.07 dollars and a broader 88–90 dollar area as secondary supports if selling pressure accelerates.
On the upside, any rebound from oversold conditions faces multiple layers of resistance. The first objective for a serious recovery is regaining the broken 117 dollar zone, which acted as the lower boundary of the previous range. Above that, a weekly resistance band around 126.65 dollars stands out as the area that recently rejected attempts to push higher before the latest 15% drop. Higher up, 131.61 dollars appears as a key retracement level that would need to be taken out for the structure to start shifting away from a clean downtrend. For a full corrective rally from this sell-off, 146 dollars is the obvious target given its role as prior high-timeframe resistance; above that, bulls would aspire to re-test the 150 dollar band, but that would require a complete reset in flows and sentiment, not just a mechanical oversold bounce.

Sentiment And Macro Crypto Context Around Solana (SOL-USD)

The backdrop for Solana is not happening in isolation; it is part of a broader de-risk phase across digital assets. Bitcoin has slipped back under the mid-70,000 dollar area and has retreated from recent highs, while large caps such as Ethereum and XRP are also under pressure, with ETF flows mixed or softening and retail interest fading. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting at 14 shows that investors are in “extreme fear”, not greed, and the total market cap drawdown of over 500 billion dollars in a matter of days confirms that systemic profit-taking and forced de-risking are in play. For Solana specifically, this means dips are not being bought aggressively by cross-asset rotation – capital is leaving the space or moving to cash and stablecoins rather than rotating out of one altcoin into another. That environment increases the probability that breaks of support such as 100 dollars trigger follow-through instead of instant mean reversion.

Short-Term Scenarios For SOL-USD – Relief Rally Versus Deeper Flush

In the near term, Solana (SOL-USD) is essentially trapped between oversold momentum and still-bearish structure. If price manages to defend the 95–100 dollar region on a daily closing basis while RSI starts to climb back from the mid-20s toward neutral, a relief rally is the most likely outcome. In that scenario, short covering from overcrowded derivatives positioning, plus a normalization of funding back toward zero, could drive SOL-USD back into the 117–126 dollar zone, with an extension toward 131–146 dollars if buyers regain some control and ETF flows stabilize. Such a move would be corrective in the context of the larger downtrend, not a confirmed start of a fresh bull leg, unless those resistance levels are reclaimed with strong participation and higher highs are printed on the daily chart.
If instead Solana closes decisively below 100 dollars and fails to attract meaningful dip demand at 95.26 dollars, the correction can extend into a deeper flush toward 90–88 dollars and potentially into the high-70s where the January 2024 low around 79 dollars sits. With derivatives shorts in profit and ETF investors starting to redeem, the path of least resistance in that case remains lower until either liquidations flip to being short-side dominated, outflows slow, and clear bullish divergences appear on momentum indicators. At that point, an attractive high-reward entry setup could emerge, but that is not what the current configuration is showing yet.

Medium-Term Outlook And Risk Framework For Solana (SOL-USD)

On a medium-term horizon, the key question for SOL-USD is whether the current move is a sharp but temporary reset in a broader uptrend, or the start of a new, more sustained bear phase. The descending channel structure, loss of the 117–120 dollar base, negative ETF flows and persistent negative funding argue that the market is still in the “repricing” stage rather than in “re-accumulation”. For medium-term participants, the cleanest bullish signal would be a break and weekly close back above 131–146 dollars with funding normalizing and spot volumes increasing on up days, indicating genuine demand rather than short squeeze mechanics. Until that happens, rallies into the 117–146 band should be treated as potential distribution zones where early longs and institutions may continue lightening up exposure. Risk management for any long exposure currently in the book should anchor around the 95–90 dollar band and, more structurally, the 79 dollar low: a sustained break below that level would indicate that the prior cycle’s higher-low structure has failed and that the market is entering a different, more aggressive downtrend phase.

Verdict On Solana (SOL-USD) – Direction, Stance And Rating

Putting all the data together – the break of the 117–120 dollar base, the move under 100 dollars, negative funding around –0.005% to –0.008%, long liquidations above 24 million dollars in a day, the first 2.45 million dollar weekly outflow from spot ETFs, daily RSI around 25 and 4-hour RSI near 30 without a clear bullish divergence, and layered downside targets at 95, 90 and 79 dollars – the current picture for Solana (SOL-USD) is short-term bearish with oversold conditions that justify tactical bounces rather than a clean long-term bottom. The market is paying traders who are short, institutions are starting to redeem, and structure has shifted clearly to lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel.
Given that combination, the rational stance is Hold for investors already in the name, with risk tightly controlled below the 95–90 dollar cluster, and no high-conviction fresh long for conservative capital until SOL-USD proves it can reclaim at least the 117–126 dollar band and start breaking back toward 131–146 dollars on strong volume. Aggressive traders can attempt short-term long trades off the 95–100 dollar zone, but that is a tactical oversold play, not a structural bullish call. Overall, direction remains bearish in the short term, with the base case that Solana explores more downside or trades a choppy corrective bounce before any durable upside trend can resume.

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