Stock Market Today - Dow Jumps 493 Points as Fed Cut Bets Surge; Nasdaq Surges With NVDA,ORCL and LLY, S&P 500 Extend Broad Market Rally

Wall Street Ends Volatile Week With Broad Gains As Fed Cut Bets Rise

The final trading sessions of the week saw a sharp reversal in sentiment across U.S. indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbing nearly 493 points (+1.1%), the S&P 500 (SPX) advancing 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) adding 0.9%. Despite the rally, all three benchmarks closed the week lower — the Nasdaq down 2.5%, S&P 500 off 2%, and the Dow retreating 1.8%, reflecting the lingering tension between rate expectations, AI sector valuation concerns, and global growth uncertainty.

Federal Reserve Signals Trigger Market Turnaround

Markets shifted decisively after New York Fed President John Williams indicated potential support for a rate cut “in the near term.” The CME FedWatch tool now prices a 70–73% probability of a December rate reduction, up from 39% a day earlier. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10-year note yield sliding to 4.06% from 4.10%, while the U.S. dollar index (DXY) hovered near 100.20.

Lower yields reignited buying across homebuilders (BLDR, DHI, LEN, PHM, KBH) and real-estate-linked equities (Z, RKT), which jumped between 5%–7% on hopes of cheaper mortgage financing. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) gained 5.4%, while the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) rose 5.7%, marking their best session since July.

AI Sector Sees Profit-Taking Amid Valuation Tensions

The week underscored growing skepticism toward the AI trade, despite strong corporate earnings. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported record Q3 revenue and upbeat guidance but slid 3.2% Thursday and another 1% Friday, pressured by fears of overinvestment and stretched valuations. Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) remained the week’s biggest casualty, down 5.7% Friday and over 40% below its September highs, as traders dumped leveraged AI infrastructure plays. Its debt load now exceeds $100 billion after a recent $18 billion bond raise, while investors weigh its exposure to the $500 billion Stargate AI infrastructure project alongside OpenAI and SoftBank.

Rivals Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) declined 1.9% and 1.1%, respectively, mirroring weakness across AI hardware providers. Meanwhile, Vistra (NYSE: VST) and Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) — both major nuclear power suppliers for data centers — dropped 3% and 2.2% as traders reassessed AI-energy euphoria.

Retail, Discount, and Consumer Staples Lead Sector Rotation

The defensive consumer trade led Friday’s rebound. Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) jumped 8.4% to a record $173, driven by a 10.4% YoY revenue gain to $5.6 billion and 7% same-store sales growth, signaling sustained demand for value retail. Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) surged 8% after reporting Q3 EPS of $0.62 on $3.94 billion in revenue, beating estimates and revising full-year sales growth to 1.7–2%, up from 1–2% prior.

Walmart (NYSE: WMT), which led the Dow Thursday with a 6.5% spike on strong earnings and a move to switch its listing to Nasdaq, declined 2% Friday as traders locked in profits. Shares remain up 16% YTD. BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) added 4.5% premarket after lifting FY profit guidance to $4.30–$4.40 EPS.

Tech and Software Mixed as Select AI Beneficiaries Rebound

Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) outperformed with a 4% rally, buoyed by Q1 FY26 EPS of $3.34 (+25¢ above consensus) and revenue up 18% to $3.89 billion. Growth in QuickBooks Online Accounting (+25% to $1.21 billion) reinforced its positioning as a stable AI-integrated software play. Cognizant Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: CTSH) advanced 5.5% after a William Blair upgrade to Outperform, highlighting five consecutive quarters of constant-currency growth and an improving AI-services portfolio.

Conversely, Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) plunged 15%, despite posting $0.64 EPS vs. $0.58 expected and raising FY26 revenue guidance to $1.72B, as investors balked at slowing revenue growth momentum (16% vs. 20% prior quarter).

Healthcare Becomes Market’s Safe Haven

Amid AI volatility, capital rotated aggressively into healthcare, the only S&P 500 sector up in November (+5% MTD). Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) briefly hit a $1 trillion market cap, trading as high as $1,061/share, buoyed by blockbuster drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. The company’s valuation now rivals Walmart (WMT) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN) also surged, making healthcare the month’s top-performing group while technology declined 8%.

Crypto and Commodities Mirror Risk Sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) extended its correction, dropping below $81,000, a 35% slide from its October record of $125,000, while Ether (ETH-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD) also retreated. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) fell in tandem. Analysts note cross-asset correlations are tightening, with BTC now trading as a speculative proxy for broader market sentiment.

In commodities, WTI crude (CL=F) slumped to $57.98 (-1.7%), its lowest in a month, while gold (XAU/USD) held firm at $4,060/oz, underpinned by falling Treasury yields and geopolitical demand.

China and Global Markets: Shanghai and Europe Mixed

The Shanghai Composite Index climbed to 3834.89, supported by growth in the STAR Market—China’s tech-oriented board dubbed its “NASDAQ.” However, Stoxx 600 (Europe) was flat at 562.10, mirroring global caution despite SSE’s Global Investors Conference emphasizing international cooperation and STAR market listings expansion. The SSE’s STAR Growth Tier continued to attract biotech and AI firms, underlining China’s tech self-sufficiency push.

Weekly Forecast: Fed, AI, and Retail Drive Direction

Looking to next week, the focus remains on Fed communication ahead of the Dec. 9–10 FOMC meeting, Black Friday–Cyber Monday retail data, and AI sector digestion post-earnings. Traders expect continued volatility in NVDA, ORCL, and AMD, alongside potential momentum in consumer discretionary and housing if rate-cut probabilities hold near 70%.

Technically, the S&P 500 faces near-term resistance at 6680, with support around 6520; the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) finds resistance at 24,400, while the Dow eyes 46,500 as its next breakout level. The VIX near its weekly high indicates fragile sentiment but improved short-term risk appetite.

Verdict: Moderately Bullish Short-Term, Rotation-Led Recovery

Market positioning favors a short-term rebound driven by rate-cut bets, consumer strength, and healthcare leadership, though AI-driven tech remains vulnerable to valuation compression. Based on price action, breadth, and sector flows, the outlook for the coming week is cautiously bullish, with selective buys in ROST, INTU, LLY, DHI, and BLDR, while NVDA, ORCL, and AVGO remain short-term holds amid potential consolidation.

Trading News Verdict:
U.S. Equities – BUY (Short-Term Rotation Rally)
AI Sector – HOLD (Valuation Reset in Progress)
Healthcare – STRONG BUY (Earnings Momentum, Defensive Appeal)
Crypto – SELL (Extended Downtrend, Weak Correlation Flows)
Oil – HOLD (OPEC+ Risk, Weak Demand)

Indices Outlook:

• S&P 500 (SPX): 6631.50 (+1.0%) — Bullish Bias Above 6520

• Nasdaq (IXIC): 24349.00 (+0.9%) — Support 24,000 / Resistance 24,800

• Dow (DJIA): 46,377.00 (+1.1%) — Eyeing 47,000 Resistance

The week closed with a classic “everything rally,” yet macro conditions demand discipline. With rate cuts back on the table and sector rotation accelerating, investors are recalibrating for a December policy pivot that could redefine Q4 momentum.

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