Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Clings to 23,500 as Dow Sinks on Bank Selloff and Trump’s Greenland Tariff Shock

Stock Market Today: AI-led Nasdaq holds ground as banks, tariffs and gold reprice risk

Index snapshot: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, crypto and key benchmarks

The U.S. large-cap tape is split. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed at 6,920.93, down 0.34% on the day after briefly trading above 6,940 earlier in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.94% to 48,996.08, wiping out roughly 466 points in one session as bank and cyclical names came under pressure. By contrast, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) in that same session edged up 0.16% to 23,584.28, and more recently printed 23,515.39, off 0.06%, showing that tech and AI-heavy components are still attracting incremental capital even as other sectors stall. A separate snapshot of the broader market shows the S&P 500 later at 6,940.01, down 0.1%, the Dow at 49,359.33, down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq at 23,515.39, down 0.1%, which underscores how tight the index ranges are despite heavy news flow. Outside equities, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $95,133, down roughly 0.3%, indicating a modest risk-off tone even in high-beta crypto. Taken together, this is a market that is near record levels in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the Dow drifting lower and crypto pausing, while sector internals do most of the real work.

Financials and housing risk: JPM, BAC, BX and the political hit to banks

Financials were a clear drag. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) both slipped, with moves on the day measured in single-digit percentages but enough to pull the Dow lower because of their index weight. The trigger was a combination of softer-than-expected December ADP employment data and renewed political noise. The ADP print signalled the labour market cooling a bit faster than hoped, which feeds through to loan growth expectations, fee income and credit quality assumptions for 2026. On the policy side, Donald Trump’s repeated comments about banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes went straight at a core profit engine for large alternative asset managers. Shares of Blackstone (BX) fell as markets priced in the scenario that institutional landlords are restricted or even forced to shrink their footprint in U.S. housing. The Blackstone move is not about a one-day tweet; it is about the risk that portfolios worth tens of billions of dollars, with yields that have underpinned BX’s mid-teens return profile, could be structurally repriced if they are no longer allowed to grow. With the Dow sitting near 49,000 and bank valuations already reflecting a rate-cut path, this extra political layer caps upside. On risk-reward, large diversified banks such as JPM and BAC line up as Hold, with solid capital ratios and dividend support, but limited re-rating room while labour data softens and policy noise rises. For BX and similar housing-heavy institutions, the balance tilts towards Sell or Underweight until there is clarity on whether a ban on institutional home buying becomes actual policy or remains campaign rhetoric.

Tariff shock and safe havens: Trump’s Greenland gambit, FTSE 100, gold and silver

The next macro shock is coming from trade. Trump’s latest escalation is a threat to impose new U.S. tariffs on eight NATO members – Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland – unless they agree to support a U.S. acquisition of Greenland. The proposed structure starts with a 10% levy on goods from those countries from 1 February, rising to 25% from 1 June if there is no agreement. Weekend pricing on derivatives platforms shows the impact before cash markets even open. The UK’s FTSE 100 is indicated down about 0.9% for Monday’s open, while IG’s weekend Wall Street contract points to a 0.5% fall for the Dow Jones. That kind of move, if realised, would slice roughly 450 to 250 points off the Dow’s 49,000 region and shave close to 70 points off the FTSE 100 in a single gap. Safe havens are already responding. Gold on weekend markets traded around $4,625 per ounce, just $17 below last week’s record high at $4,642. Silver traded near $90.41 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Separate commentary has highlighted that silver is already up about 25% in 2026, signalling that investors are not just seeking yield plays but are willing to hold non-yielding hedges when they see political risk climbing. The logic is straightforward. A 25% tariff on a wide range of goods from major European exporters crushes margins or forces price hikes, which threatens earnings in industries like autos, machinery and industrials on both sides of the Atlantic. That increases the appeal of hard assets and keeps pressure on policymakers. In this environment, gold remains a straightforward Buy, with the tape already validating that view, and silver stays in a high-beta Buy camp for investors willing to tolerate larger swings.

AI leadership and index structure: NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN and the Nasdaq bull

The Nasdaq Composite is now deep into its latest bull market. The index bottomed at 15,268 on 8 April 2025, more than 24% below its prior peak at 20,173 from 16 December 2024. From that low, the Nasdaq has rallied approximately 54% to the 23,515–23,584 range, satisfying the two classic conditions for a new bull: a 20% rise off the bear-market low and a new all-time high. The character of this advance is extremely concentrated. Nvidia (NVDA) accounts for about 11.5% of the Nasdaq Composite, Apple (AAPL) about 10.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) 9.1%, Alphabet (GOOG) 8.9% and Amazon (AMZN) 6.3%. Those five names alone make up 46% of the index’s weight. On the day when the S&P 500 slipped 0.34% and the Dow fell 0.94%, NVDA still managed a small gain, while the broader table of large caps showed MSFT around $460.16, up 0.8%, AMZN at roughly $239.36, up 0.5%, GOOG at $330.51, down 0.8%, META at $620.25, down 0.1%, NVDA around $186.51, down only 0.3% in that later snapshot, and TSLA near $437.86, down 0.2%. These prints show that even on a more negative tape, buyers continue to support AI and software leaders on modest dips. Historically, the last six Nasdaq bull markets since 1990 delivered an average total return of 281% over roughly 1,817 days, equivalent to about 31% annualised. The first year of those bulls has averaged a 71% gain, the second year about 17%. If this pattern holds, starting from 15,268 on 8 April 2025, a 71% rise would put the index near 26,108 by 8 April 2026, and a further 17% would take it to about 30,546 by 8 April 2027. From the current 23,515 region, that implies roughly 11% upside to the one-year mark and about 30% to a two-year horizon. There are no guarantees, but the numbers say this bull market is advanced, not exhausted, and the earnings and spending plans in AI, cloud and semiconductors still validate high, though not unlimited, valuations. For positioning, direct exposure to the AI core – NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN – remains Buy, with the caveat that entries should be timed on pullbacks rather than chased after multi-percentage-point intraday spikes.

Single-stock winners and laggards: ASTS, MU, IBRX, VST, RKLB, FLY, APOG

Under the index surface, dispersion is high. Among high-beta outliers, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) jumped about 14.3% to roughly $115.77, adding $14.52 in a single day, driven by renewed enthusiasm for satellite-to-phone connectivity and speculative AI-infrastructure adjacency. Micron Technology (MU) rallied about 7.7% to $362.48, up $25.85, as investors continue to price in a full DRAM and NAND upcycle tied to AI servers and high-bandwidth memory. Biotech name ImmunityBio (IBRX) surged roughly 39.7% to $5.52, a $1.57 gain that reflects binary sentiment around its clinical and regulatory news flow. On the downside, Vistra (VST) fell about 7.5% to $166.60, losing $13.58, showing that even in the power-and-utilities complex, valuation air pockets exist once growth expectations overshoot. Rocket Lab (RKLB) climbed around 6.0% to $96.23, adding $5.47, and Flywire (FLY) advanced about 12.3% to $33.41, up $3.66, underlining how mid-cap growth can still outperform when fundamentals line up. Elsewhere, Apogee Enterprises (APOG) was hit after missing on revenue and issuing a weaker outlook, extending its slide as investors penalised the stock for failing to meet expectations in a market where the S&P 500 trades near all-time highs. APOG’s exact percentage drop was less important than the message: when the index is at 6,900–6,940, investors see no reason to sit in small industrials that deliver negative surprises. In this context, high-beta winners like ASTS, MU, IBRX and RKLB remain High-risk Buy or Trading Buy for aggressive investors, while VST and APOG fall into Avoid or Sell territory until they rebuild confidence through clean quarters and clearer guidance.

ETFs and concentration risk: QQQ vs ONEQ and index-level pricing

ETF structure matters because of the extreme concentration at the top of the Nasdaq. The Fidelity Nasdaq Composite ETF (ONEQ), which tracks almost the full Nasdaq Composite, has delivered roughly 1,120% over the last twenty years, about 13% per year, and charges 0.21%, meaning $21 annually on each $10,000 invested. Its current price sits around $92.46, with daily moves typically tied very tightly to the composite’s percentage change. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, has returned about 1,580% over the same period, nearly 15% per year, with a 0.18% fee, or $18 per $10,000. QQQ trades near $621.26, and because of its modified market-cap weighting, it keeps the collective weight of names above 4.5% capped at 48%. As a result, while the top five holdings in the composite represent 46% of that index and therefore of ONEQ, those same five represent around 36% of QQQ. That 10-point difference materially reduces single-name risk if something goes wrong in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG or AMZN. Given these numbers, the market is paying 0.03 percentage points less in annual fees for QQQ and receiving a stronger long-run performance record with less concentration in the largest five names. On valuation and structure, QQQ is a clear Buy for broad AI and growth exposure, ONEQ is a Hold or secondary Buy for investors who want a closer match to the full composite, including smaller caps.

Macro calendar, holidays and earnings: MLK Day, Davos, PCE, NFLX, INTC, GE

The trading schedule and event calendar will shape volatility over the coming week. U.S. equity and bond markets are closed on Monday, 19 January, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange both reopen on Tuesday, 20 January, for standard hours. For the rest of 2026, U.S. markets will be closed on Presidents Day (Monday, 16 February), Good Friday (Friday, 3 April), Memorial Day (Monday, 25 May), Juneteenth (Friday, 19 June), Independence Day (Friday, 3 July), Labor Day (Monday, 7 September), Thanksgiving (Thursday, 26 November, with a 1 p.m. early close on Wednesday, 25 November) and Christmas (Friday, 25 December, with a 1 p.m. early close on Thursday, 24 December). These dates define when liquidity disappears and when overnight futures and options gaps can be largest. At the same time, the World Economic Forum in Davos is underway. Trump is slated to speak on Wednesday, with a focus on housing affordability and reform. His proposals include banning large institutional investors from buying homes and ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase more mortgage bonds to lower borrowing costs. These themes directly affect mortgage REITs, homebuilders and balance-sheet lenders. On Thursday, the market receives delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures for October and November, the final reading on third-quarter GDP, and weekly initial jobless claims for the period ending 17 January. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and any reading meaningfully below earlier CPI prints will strengthen the case for rate cuts at upcoming meetings, while a surprise to the upside would force a re-pricing of the front-end curve. The earnings calendar is packed. On Tuesday, key names include Netflix (NFLX), 3M (MMM), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Fastenal (FAST), D.R. Horton (DHI), United Airlines (UAL), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR). Wednesday brings Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Truist Financial (TFC), Travelers (TRV), Halliburton (HAL) and Citizens Financial Group (CFG). Thursday features GE Aerospace (GE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Intel (INTC), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One Financial (COF) and CSX (CSX). Friday rounds out the week with Ericsson (ERIC), First Citizens (FCNCA) and Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), alongside data such as final January consumer sentiment and flash U.S. PMI. For traders, that combination of a holiday, Davos, PCE and a heavy earnings slate means one thing: expect larger percentage moves on gaps and in post-earnings trading than in quiet weeks.

Global markets and flows: FTSE 100, Saudi TASI, private deals and zero-commission trading

Globally, the tariff threat is already visible in implied pricing. IG’s weekend book points to the FTSE 100 opening about 0.9% lower, and its Weekend Wall Street product implies roughly a 0.5% drop in the Dow, reflecting tens of billions of dollars of market cap at risk before any U.S. cash trade prints. In metals, gold’s presence at $4,625 per ounce, less than 0.4% below its $4,642 peak, and silver at $90.41 per ounce after a roughly 25% year-to-date jump, show that institutional and retail accounts are paying up to own insurance against a policy mistake. In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia’s equity market continues to show its own momentum. The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) closed the first session of the week up about 0.9%, while the Nomu parallel market gained roughly 0.1%. A private transaction in Al-Taawuniyah saw 100,200 shares change hands at 118 Saudi riyals each, a block worth around 11.8 million riyals, which signals substantial institutional interest at that price level. At the same time, Derayah Financial’s move to a zero-commission trading model for Saudi markets aligns the local brokerage landscape with the U.S. approach that has prevailed since the late 2010s. Elsewhere in Asia, headlines indicate that South Korea is seeking negotiations with the U.S. on chip tariffs, which matters directly for global semiconductor supply chains and indirectly for names like INTC, NVDA, MU and memory-equipment exporters. For investors with regional exposure, the combination of strong Saudi GDP forecasts, market-structure reforms like zero-commission trading, and continuing capital-market development keeps TASI in a Buy category on a multi-year view, while European indices such as the FTSE 100 are closer to Hold or Underweight until there is clarity on whether the 10% and 25% U.S. tariffs become reality.

Strategy call: Nasdaq and AI in Buy, S&P 500 in Hold, Dow and banks in Underweight, gold in Buy

At current numbers, the risk-reward profile across the main assets is defined by concentration, policy risk and macro momentum. The Nasdaq Composite, currently around 23,515–23,584 after a 54% rise off the 15,268 low, and AI-focused ETFs like QQQ near $621, remain in Bullish Buy territory. Historical bull-market returns of 71% in year one and 17% in year two, plus the earnings and capex outlook for NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG and AMZN, justify continued overweight positions, with risk managed by using pullbacks for entries rather than chasing every breakout. The S&P 500, at roughly 6,920–6,940, warrants a Hold with a growth tilt; valuations are rich, but index-level earnings growth is still underpinned by the same tech and communication leaders that drive the Nasdaq. The Dow, at approximately 49,000, is more vulnerable, given its heavier exposure to banks, industrials and tariff-sensitive multinationals, and sits in Hold to Underweight territory while tariffs over Europe and housing policy overhang financials and exporters. Large banks like JPM and BAC are Hold, with decent dividends and capital buffers but capped upside until labour and regulatory noise settles. Institutional housing plays like BX are closer to Sell or Underweight on a 6–12 month horizon because their business model sits directly in the crosshairs of potential bans on institutional home buying. Gold, close to $4,625 per ounce and within a half-percent of record highs, is a clear Buy as a hedge against tariff risk, political shocks and any surprise in inflation that complicates the Fed’s path. Silver, at about $90 and already up roughly 25% year to date, remains a High-beta Buy for those willing to ride larger swings. Saudi TASI is a Buy based on growth forecasts, structural reforms and visible institutional flows such as the 11.8 million riyal Al-Taawuniyah trade. Airlines, cyclicals and homebuilders, sitting between earnings uncertainty and policy risk, fit best in Hold until the Davos speeches, PCE data and Q1 guidance resets give clearer numbers to work with.

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