Stock Market Today - Stock Market Falls as Shutdown Hits Jobs Data, S&P 500 at 6,670, Nasdaq 22,582, Dow 46,369

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Under Pressure as Shutdown Fuels Risk-Off Trade

The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.26% to 6,670.93, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 77 points, or 0.34%, to close at 22,582.82. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) held slightly firmer but still eased 28 points to 46,369.20. The weak open to Q4 came after the federal government officially shut down at midnight, raising uncertainty over the release of key economic data and the path of fiscal negotiations. Markets had just finished a strong September where the S&P 500 advanced more than 3.5%, making the immediate pullback notable.

Labor Market Shock: ADP Shows 32,000 Job Losses

ADP reported that U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the steepest decline since March 2023. This was far below the anticipated 45,000 increase, and August was revised down sharply from +54,000 to -3,000. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics furloughed under the shutdown, the crucial nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for this Friday will not be published, leaving the Federal Reserve flying blind ahead of its late October policy meeting. Traders now price in an almost certain October rate cut, with a second cut possible in December.

Dow Jones Hit by Bank Stock Losses

Large banks dragged the Dow (DJIA) lower. Citigroup (C) shed more than 1%, Wells Fargo (WFC) fell 0.8%, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) alongside Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) lost about 0.6%. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index dropped nearly 1% to 151.07. With Treasury yields sliding, the 10-year yield dropped to 4.107% and the 2-year fell 5 bps to 3.547%, compressing net interest margins. Investors are questioning whether financials can sustain momentum in a slowing economy.

Nasdaq Dragged by Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix, Meta

The Nasdaq (COMP) came under pressure from high-profile tech stocks. Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 2% after raising vehicle prices in China, a move that signals margin pressure in a competitive EV market. Nvidia (NVDA) lost nearly 3%, extending its recent underperformance as traders reassess stretched AI valuations. Netflix (NFLX) slipped over 2% and continues to trade below its 50-day moving average. Meta Platforms (META) also retreated 2% to $734.38, reflecting broader caution on advertising-driven models.

Russell 2000 Shows Resilience Despite Market Turbulence

The Russell 2000 (RUT) was one of the few bright spots, recovering from a steep futures decline to close modestly higher at 2,429.34. This move reflects selective rotation into smaller-cap stocks, particularly in industrial and energy sectors, even as large-cap tech weighed on the broader market.

Corporate Earnings and Movers: Nike, Lithium Americas, Peloton

Nike (NKE) shares surged 4% to $72.04 after reporting stronger-than-expected results. Revenue climbed to $11.72 billion, topping consensus of $11.0 billion, while EPS of $0.49 beat expectations by 22 cents. However, net income dropped 31% and gross margin contracted 3.2 percentage points to 42.2% as tariff costs rose by $445 million. Executives now expect tariffs to hit $1.5 billion for the fiscal year, up from $1 billion.
Lithium Americas (LAC) rocketed 18.6% to $6.77 after the U.S. Department of Energy confirmed plans to take a 5% stake in the Canadian miner and its Thacker Pass lithium project. Year to date, the stock is up 92%, positioning it as one of the sector’s biggest gainers.
Peloton (PTON) slipped 6.8% to $8.39, despite unveiling a new AI-powered commercial line and raising subscription prices. Shares remain up 45% over the past six months, but skepticism over execution and profitability remains high.

Dollar Weakness and Commodity Moves

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.24% to 94.93, extending its year-to-date decline to nearly 10%, the sharpest drop since 2003. Gold surged to a record $3,900 per ounce, up 0.71%, as investors sought safe havens. Oil softened, with WTI crude (CL=F) sliding 1.31% to $61.55 per barrel and Brent also weaker, as demand concerns overshadowed supply risks.

Market Outlook: Buy, Sell, or Hold

With the S&P 500 at 6,670, the Nasdaq at 22,582, and the Dow at 46,369, markets are contending with elevated valuations, deteriorating labor market data, and heightened fiscal risk. The contraction in payrolls, combined with the shutdown, tilts sentiment toward caution. Financials (JPM, GS, C) and megacap tech (TSLA, NVDA, NFLX, META) are flashing weakness, while defensive outliers like Nike (NKE) and commodity-linked plays such as Lithium Americas (LAC) show resilience. The stance for broad indices is Hold-to-Sell, with selective opportunities in healthcare and energy metals, but risk remains skewed to the downside unless fiscal clarity emerges.

That's TradingNEWS