USD/JPY Price Forecast - USDJPY Tests 153 Support as BoJ April Hike Talk Lifts Yen

USD/JPY – price pinned around 153.00 after a violent yen squeeze

USD/JPY is locked around 153.0 after a sharp intraday reversal from the 153.70 area and a failed push lower toward 152.70–152.80. The pair has spent the last four sessions trapped in a tight but nervous band between roughly 152.7 on the downside and 153.7 on the upside, reflecting a market torn between an entrenched medium-term uptrend and fresh doubts about how much rate-differential support the dollar can still command. On the daily chart the pair is sitting directly on a key support pocket at 152.80–153.00, an area that coincides with recent lows and short-term horizontal demand. That zone has now been tested multiple times without a clean break, underlining how important it has become for near-term direction. A decisive daily close below 152.80 would be the first clear sign that the correction from the 158–160 region is evolving into something deeper. For now, every dip toward 152.7–153 still finds buyers, but they are paying a steadily higher risk premium for defending that line.

USD/JPY – BoJ normalization chatter and weak Japanese data pulling in opposite directions

The latest leg of yen strength that knocked USD/JPY off its recent highs was triggered by comments from a former Bank of Japan board member flagging April as the most likely timing for the next rate hike and sketching out a gradual path toward roughly 1.25% over time. The message is clear enough for macro desks: the era of purely one-way policy in Tokyo is over, and investors need to price a slow but real trajectory away from negative or near-zero rates. Against that, the hard data out of Japan have not delivered a “clean” macro backdrop for aggressive BoJ tightening. Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP grew only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter after a 0.7% contraction in Q3, badly missing the 0.4% consensus. On an annual basis the economy expanded just 0.2%, far below the 1.6% that markets expected. That combination of a technical recovery on paper with very weak momentum keeps the growth side of the mandate fragile and explains why the BoJ has been so cautious about tightening into a soft domestic cycle. Fresh service-sector numbers point in the same direction: the December Tertiary Industry Index dropped 0.5% month-on-month, versus expectations for a much smaller 0.2% decline and after a 0.4% fall previously. With services representing roughly 70% of Japanese output, that -0.5% print signals fading demand and softer inflation pressure just as markets try to front-run policy normalization. The result is a messy mix: structural expectations for more hikes are adding medium-term support to the yen, but near-term Japanese data do not yet justify a fast or aggressive BoJ tightening path, limiting how far USD/JPY can really unwind without cooperation from the US side of the rate spread.

USD/JPY – Fed path, US dollar positioning and global risk sentiment behind the 153 handle

On the US side of USD/JPY, the macro backdrop is one of resilience rather than boom, with markets now treating coming data as calibration rather than regime change. Headline CPI has eased back toward roughly 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest zone since mid-2025 and visually closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, while the latest nonfarm payrolls report delivered about 130,000 new jobs, the strongest print since July 2025. That combination of cooling inflation and solid employment is textbook “soft landing” material, yet the Fed is still being priced as holding rates in the near term, with rate-cut expectations pushed out toward mid-year. Fed minutes, Q4 GDP and the PCE deflator due later in the week are the next catalysts for repricing that curve. Positioning adds another layer: survey data show US dollar exposure in institutional portfolios running at record underweights, building a structural short base into any upside surprise in US yields or data. Despite that, the Dollar Index is holding around 97.0–97.1, up roughly 0.25–0.27% on the day, which underscores how reluctant markets are to lean further against the greenback while the Fed is still officially on hold. Risk sentiment is not delivering a clear signal either. US equity indices are grinding higher but with visible fatigue: the Dow trades near 49,600, the S&P 500 around 6,854 and the Nasdaq close to 22,625, all up about 0.2–0.4%, but with the volatility index still near 20, a level consistent with elevated anxiety. Within that, heavyweights like Apple rallying roughly 3.8–3.9% toward the $265–$266 zone help keep the Nasdaq supported, even as AI-linked worries cap enthusiasm. For USD/JPY, this backdrop is classic “two-way risk”: the dollar is not strong enough to punch the pair to new highs on its own, but it is also not weak enough to deliver the clean, trend-breaking yen rally that bears are waiting for.

USD/JPY – intraday structure: four-day box, hourly averages and the 153.734 ceiling

On the intraday timeframe, USD/JPY has spent four consecutive sessions locked inside a well-defined box. The floor has formed around 152.7–152.8, while the ceiling has repeatedly been reinforced between 153.66 and 153.734. Price briefly slipped below a rising trend line on the hourly chart earlier today, giving sellers a clear technical opportunity, but the break attracted no follow-through. As soon as the pair reclaimed the 100-hour moving average near 153.127, short-term momentum flipped back in favor of the buyers and the move lower was treated as a false break. That 153.127 level now matters as the line where intraday bias toggles. As long as USD/JPY holds above the 100-hour average, dip-buyers can argue that the corrective phase is being contained rather than accelerating. The immediate challenge for the bulls is the 153.734 cap. That price has repelled the pair multiple times: two separate hourly highs last Thursday stalled just below it, and Friday’s rally also failed directly under that ceiling around 153.66. The market has effectively tagged this as the trigger line for any short-term breakout. A sustained push above 153.734 would expose the next intraday layers of resistance around 154.32, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the February downswing, followed by the 200-hour moving average near 154.506 and the 100-day moving average around 154.628. All three are packed tightly above current spot, forming a dense resistance band that any rebound has to chew through in sequence.

USD/JPY – daily chart: fading momentum, moving averages as a lid and RSI in the high-30s

The daily profile of USD/JPY shows a pair that has shifted from relentless upside to a grinding, corrective pullback. Price is now trading below both the 15-day and 20-day moving averages, which have started to flatten out. That change in slope is a textbook sign that the prior bullish impulse has cooled and that the market is searching for a new equilibrium rather than trending. As long as price remains capped under the 154.60–155.00 corridor, where those short-term averages cluster, rallies are more likely to be sold than chased. The 14-day RSI has slipped into the high-30s, reflecting a meaningful erosion of bullish momentum but not yet an extreme oversold washout. That leaves room for both scenarios: a tactical bounce off support that relieves pressure without changing the broader picture, or another leg lower that drags RSI into deeper oversold territory before any durable base forms. There is no confirmed bullish divergence from RSI at this point, which reinforces the message from price that the path of least resistance remains sideways-to-lower until the market gets fresh fuel from either BoJ or Fed headlines. From a level perspective, the 152.80–153.00 shelf is the first line that buyers absolutely need to defend. A clean break below there would open up a wider retracement toward the 150.50–151.00 region, where prior congestion and psychological support could attract medium-term demand.

USD/JPY – weekly structure: uptrend still alive, but 152 and 154.80–155 define the battlefield

Stepping back to the weekly log-scale chart, USD/JPY is still riding an ascending support line that originates at the April 2025 lows. Measured from that base, the structure remains a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, which means the current slide is a correction within an uptrend, not a confirmed reversal. However, if you switch the reference point to the 2026 highs in the 158–160 region, the recent move looks increasingly like a meaningful pullback with enough depth to challenge the trend. The market is now probing the 152 area for the third time. This level is not only an obvious horizontal support but also sits close to the lower bound of the ascending channel that has contained the trend since 2025. Holding 152 on a weekly closing basis keeps the bullish pattern intact and leaves the door open for another leg higher once the current consolidation resolves. Losing 152 on a clear break, especially if accompanied by a drop through 150.5, would signal that the market is migrating into a broader distribution phase with 149 as the next obvious downside waypoint. On the topside, the 154.80–155.00 zone stands out as the decisive pivot for medium-term sentiment. Regaining and holding above that band would confirm that the corrective phase has been absorbed, reopen the path toward 157.80 and 158.80 and, by extension, re-expose the psychologically charged 160 handle. Those upper targets are not just technical curiosities: moves into the high-150s and 160 historically bring verbal and potentially direct intervention risk from Tokyo, because the authorities become sensitive to the pace and extent of yen weakness at those extremes. That threat effectively places a soft ceiling on how aggressively macro funds can chase USD/JPY higher, even if the level-by-level chart picture turns bullish again.

USD/JPY – liquidity conditions, cross-asset signals and why the range refuses to break

Trading conditions around USD/JPY have been distorted by global holiday calendars, which helps explain the lack of follow-through on both sides of the tape. US markets have only just reopened after the Presidents Day long weekend, while Lunar New Year closures in mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan have kept Asian liquidity thin. In that environment, intraday spikes tend to overshoot and then mean-revert quickly, which is exactly what unfolded when the pair dived after the rate-hike comments from the former BoJ official and then snapped back once the move ran into empty order books near 152.7–152.8. Meanwhile, cross-asset signals are mixed rather than aligned. Gold and silver are both trading lower as real yields edge up and the dollar grinds higher, but that move has not translated into a broad dollar surge across G10 FX; instead, the greenback is only marginally firmer against most majors. Equity behavior tells the same story of hesitation: the Nasdaq has failed repeatedly to break above the 26,000 region since October 2025, leaving the index bouncing between support near 24,500 and resistance around 25,800, with more than five visible pullbacks from that upper band. A sustained close back above 25,200 and then 25,800 would set up a run toward the 26,300 record high and possibly beyond 27,000, but until that happens the index is effectively in a distribution range. A break below 24,500, in contrast, exposes 24,200, 23,900 and then 22,900, with the more brutal reset scenario pointing toward the former resistance zone near 22,200 defined by the December 2024 and February 2025 highs. For USD/JPY, that equity backdrop matters because any sharp equity drawdown would likely restore the yen’s safe-haven appeal and amplify downside moves if support finally cracks. At present, though, equities, yields and the dollar are all sending “cautious but not panicked” signals, which is why the pair keeps snapping back into the 152.8–153.7 corridor instead of trending.

USD/JPY – trading verdict: hold with a bearish bias, sell rallies while the 154.80–155 cap holds

Pulling the strands together, USD/JPY is no longer in the one-way, yield-differential trade that defined the climb to 158–160, but the bears have not yet wrestled full control away from the structural uptrend either. The pair is sitting directly on the 152.80–153.00 support shelf, below the 15-day and 20-day moving averages and in the high-30s on daily RSI, with intraday resistance layered every few tenths of a figure between 153.73 and the 154.6–155 band. BoJ normalization talk, an April hike window and the possibility of rates drifting toward roughly 1.25% over time are slowly rebuilding the yen’s medium-term case, but weak GDP at just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, only 0.2% year-on-year growth and a -0.5% print on the Tertiary Industry Index mean Tokyo cannot slam the brakes. On the US side, solid NFP at 130,000 and inflation near 2.4% keep the Fed in “hold now, cut later” mode, with the Dollar Index anchored around 97 and dollar positioning still heavily underweight. In that environment, the cleanest risk-reward configuration is tactical rather than heroic. While USD/JPY trades below the 154.80–155.00 cap, the balance of evidence favors treating strength into 154.3–155.0 as a selling opportunity with downside targets around 151.0 first and 149.0 on a break of 152.8, recognizing that a sustained push above 155.0 would invalidate that stance and reopen 157.8–158.8 and potentially 160. On a strategic horizon, that translates into a Hold rating on USD/JPY with a clear bearish bias over the next few weeks: the structural uptrend from 2025 is not broken while 152 and 150.5 still hold, but the weight of technicals, positioning and evolving BoJ expectations argues that rallies should be sold, not chased, until the market either decisively clears the 155 barrier or capitulates below 152.

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