XRP ETF Warning: XRPI And XRPR Under Pressure As XRP-USD Battles The $2 Line

XRP ETF Complex: XRPI, XRPR And XRP-USD After The First Real Stress Test

Price Map For XRP-USD, XRPI And XRPR After The Pullback

XRP-USD is trading in the $1.80–$1.92 zone after a drop of roughly 4–5% on the week, with intraday prints around $1.81–$1.91 and a recent weekly low near $1.8489. The December floor sits at $1.7712, and the January spike high touched $2.4151, so the token is roughly 25% below the recent local high but still well above the late-2025 base. That pullback is happening while the ETF infrastructure around XRP is already live and holding over $1.36 billion in spot ETF assets, which means the price is correcting into a market that finally has institutional rails in place instead of purely speculative offshore flows
On the listed product side, XRPI (NASDAQ: XRPI), branded simply as an XRP ETF, closed around $11.04, down 0.09% on the day (-$0.01), with an after-hours tick back to $11.05. The session range of $10.86–$11.30 sits inside a 52-week band of $10.44–$23.53. The ETF is trading at more than 50% below its 52-week high even though the XRP ETF complex has pulled in over $1.23 billion of cumulative net inflows since launch. Average volume of roughly 550,000 shares confirms that XRPI is liquid enough for institutional execution without meaningful impact
XRPR (REX Osprey XRP ETF, BATS: XRPR) closed at $15.77, up 0.38% on the day (+$0.06) after a $15.47–$16.01 range. Its yearly range stretches from $14.79 to $25.99, so XRPR is also sitting around 40% below its 12-month high. The material difference is depth: average volume is only 12,600 shares, which pushes XRPR into higher-beta, higher-slippage territory compared with XRPI. Structurally, both funds give exposure to XRP-USD, but XRPI behaves like the institutional core vehicle, while XRPR looks more like a satellite trade for investors willing to tolerate thinner liquidity for a potentially more aggressive response when XRP breaks out again

ETF Flow Regime: First Weekly Outflow, But The Cumulative Picture Still Favors XRP

The first serious test for the XRP ETF story came in the week ending January 23–25, 2026. US XRP spot ETFs broke a 10-week inflow streak, printing weekly net outflows of about $40.64 million off a single heavy outflow day and then modest inflows. On January 20, the complex saw $53.32 million in net outflows; flows then flipped back to $12.68 million of net inflows across Wednesday–Friday, which is exactly the pattern of a one-day de-risking spike followed by tentative re-entry rather than a structural exit
At the product level, the Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) took the hit, recording around $55.39 million of net outflows for the week, even though its total historical net inflow still stands near $232 million. On the other side, the Bitwise XRP ETF was the main stabilizer, posting weekly net inflows of about $8.69 million, with one article showing a $3.43 million single-day inflow on January 23 and cumulative flows into that fund alone of roughly $319 million. Across the whole XRP ETF shelf, the total net asset value sits near $1.36 billion, the ETF ownership ratio is around 1.17% of XRP’s total market cap, and historical cumulative net inflow is about $1.23 billion
The critical point: the first weekly outflow for the XRP complex coincided with XRP-USD dropping roughly 4.29% on the week, but the scale of outflows in XRP products ($40.64 million) remains small relative to the $1.32 billion pulled from US BTC spot ETFs in the same reporting window. Structurally, institutional money is still more committed to the XRP ETF story than the headline shock suggests; the outflows are meaningful as a sentiment signal, not catastrophic from a balance-sheet perspective

Legislation, Tariffs And Macro Shocks: Why Policy Is Steering The XRP-USD Tape

The immediate bearish trigger for XRP-USD, XRPI and XRPR was not a protocol failure or a crypto-native issue but a combination of US policy risk and legislative delays. Two developments hit in sequence
First, the US Senate Agriculture Committee and Senate Banking Committee delayed progress on the Market Structure Bill. The Agriculture Committee pushed back the release and markup of its draft text—initially targeting January 27—due to weather conditions, while the Banking Committee postponed its markup vote originally set for January 15. Market reaction was clear: XRP-USD rallied to around $2.4151 after the markup date was first announced, then sold off toward $1.8489 once the delays became visible. This linked XRP’s price directly to US regulatory momentum: every step toward a clear market structure framework unlocks additional utility and institutional demand; every delay compresses that risk premium
Second, tariff risk re-entered the picture. President Trump threatened tariffs on eight European NATO members tied to disputes over Greenland and NATO burden-sharing before withdrawing the threat. The initial tariff headline triggered a classic flight-to-safety rotation and risk-off move that hit XRP ETFs, contributing to the weekly outflow print. The tariffs were walked back, but the message to risk assets was simple: geopolitics can still intrude abruptly, and crypto ETFs are now traded in the same macro bucket as other risk-on vehicles
Layer onto that the broader macro backdrop: markets are trading the probability of H1 2026 Fed cuts, the shape of the Bank of Japan’s neutral rate (debate over whether neutral sits closer to 1.0–1.25% or a more hawkish 1.5–2.5%), and the sensitivity of yen carry trades that can unwind and pressure global risk assets. XRP is now fully plugged into that macro grid through XRPI, XRPR and the broader ETF complex, which means the token will increasingly react to rate-path probabilities and policy shocks, not just crypto-native stories

Technical Structure: Fibonacci, EMAs And The Wedge That Controls The Next 25% Move

The technical picture for XRP-USD is very clean and very binary. The correction from the October high near $2.70 has landed price in a consolidation zone between a base around $1.77 and a series of Fibonacci retracement levels anchored on that move
Key Fibonacci levels cited across the data:
– 0 level (swing low): $1.7707
– 0.236 level: $1.9888 (first major resistance)
– 0.382 level: $2.1238
– 0.5 level: $2.2828
– 0.618 level: $2.3419
– 1.618 extension: $3.2663
Price is oscillating between the $1.80 demand zone and the 0.236 retracement around $1.9888, exactly where the 20-day EMA sits near $1.9993. The 50-day EMA is quoted around $2.0367, and the 200-day EMA near $2.2917, so the entire short- and medium-term moving-average stack is concentrated between $2.00 and $2.30, slightly above current spot. That cluster forms the technical gate for any credible push back toward $2.50–$3.00
One dataset describes RSI around 44–67 depending on timeframe, with MACD hovering near the zero line, ADX in the mid-30s and CCI in stretched positive territory. Translation: the prior uptrend has cooled, momentum is neutralizing, and the market is waiting for a break either above $2.00 or below $1.80 to choose direction
A separate analysis flags a rising wedge structure in XRP-USD, with support pinned around $1.85–$1.86. A daily close below $1.85 is projected to unlock a move toward $1.70, and in an acceleration scenario down toward $1.42, which implies roughly 25% downside from current levels. That wedge call sits on top of the earlier hidden bullish divergence between price and RSI (higher price low versus lower RSI low). Critically, that divergence failed: instead of a strong upside reaction, price stalled. When a bullish divergence fails to generate a bounce, it signals that buyers are either exhausted or absent, and that support is more fragile than the raw indicator suggests
On the upside, bulls need a sequence: break the short-term descending trendline around $1.93–$1.94, close above $2.00, reclaim the 0.236 Fibonacci at $1.9888, then attack $2.12 (0.382) and the $2.28–$2.34 band around the 0.5–0.618 retracements. Only then does the chart start to justify a medium-term drive into the $3.00–$3.66 zone discussed in the forecasts

Derivatives, Leverage And Positioning: Futures And Options After The Flush

The derivatives data around XRP-USD is consistent with a market that has recently been cleaned out of weak leverage and is now rebuilding positioning carefully
– Futures open interest rose about 1.96% to approximately $3.37 billion
– Futures trading volume increased 10.79% to roughly $4.32 billion
– The long/short ratio is around 0.98 overall, effectively balanced
– Top traders on Binance show a 3.02 long/short ratio, meaning larger accounts are leaning materially long while retail is more evenly split
– Liquidations over 24 hours were muted at roughly $3.03 million, with $2.05 million of that hitting longs. That low liquidation number tells you the leverage reset has mostly happened; there is less crowded leverage left to trigger a cascade on marginal moves
On the options side, open interest dropped about 4.89% to $70.78 million, signaling unwinding of hedges and a recalibration of implied volatility expectations. That is typical after a sharp but contained correction: traders pay for protection into the event, then bleed off those hedges once realized volatility normalizes
Taken together, this is a textbook “clean-up and reload” structure. The market flushed out late leverage buyers on the drop through $2.00, cleared weak hands with the ETF outflow day, and is now rebuilding positions with more conservative leverage and more selective options exposure. That structure supports the view that the next big move will be driven more by new information—legislation, flows, or macro—than by forced liquidations of existing positions

Sentiment, Headlines And The German XRP ETF Hype Loop

Sentiment around XRP-USD, XRPI and XRPR is being distorted by an aggressive headline cycle, particularly in Germany. Several sources note that German-language outlets and social channels are amplifying claims of imminent XRP ETF approvals, four-digit XRP targets and “guaranteed” upside. At the same time, more conservative commentary (for example, Yahoo Finance DE–style cautions cited in the data) is warning retail traders not to trade on screenshots and tweets instead of regulator filings
One analysis frames the discipline clearly: in the US, ETF approvals show up in SEC filings; in Germany, investors need to see official notices from the listing exchange, the issuer and BaFin. If a product or approval cannot be located in those channels, it is hype, not reality. That simple filter is even more important now that XRP spot ETFs already exist in the US and real XRPI/XRPR volume is on screens. Retail flows can get sucked into unlisted products, offshore notes or marketing schemes that piggyback on the real ETF narrative without having the same regulatory backbone
For XRPI and XRPR, this hype loop has two practical consequences. First, it creates short bursts of retail buying on misleading headlines, which can temporarily push XRP-USD and the ETFs into overbought levels without any fundamental catalyst. Second, when those headlines are disproved or fail to result in actual filings, the unwind can be sharp as the same retail cohort exits in frustration. That contributes to intraday and intraweek volatility but does not change the structural ETF demand that shows up in SoSoValue’s cumulative AUM and flow data

Ark Coindesk 20 Crypto ETF: XRP As Part Of A Broader Institutional Basket

A separate but important building block in the institutionalization of XRP exposure is the Ark Coindesk 20 Crypto ETF, a futures-based commodity pool filed with the SEC on January 23. This product is not an XRP-only ETF; it tracks the Coindesk 20 Index via regulated futures contracts, excluding stablecoins, memecoins, privacy tokens and certain other classes
As of December 31, 2025, the index composition shows bitcoin, ethereum, XRP, solana and cardano making up roughly 88.15% of the total weight, with the remaining 15 assets each under 3% but each above $1 billion in market cap. The approximate notional value of the index future at that date is cited around $26,751, and settlement uses a volume-weighted average price across five-second intervals from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. London time
The key point for XRPI, XRPR and XRP-USD is that XRP is now appearing in three parallel institutional channels:
– Pure XRP spot ETFs such as XRPI/XRPR/GXRP/Bitwise XRP
– Multi-asset futures baskets such as the Ark Coindesk 20 ETF
– Ongoing derivatives markets (futures and options) tied directly to XRP-USD
That diversification of access reduces single-vehicle risk. If flows temporarily rotate out of pure XRP spot ETFs after a strong run, they can re-enter via a broader crypto basket. That keeps XRP in institutional portfolios even when single-asset risk budgets are tight, which is structurally positive for XRPI/XRPR correlation with the broader crypto market cycle

Flow, Holder And Whale Data: Demand Slows, Not Collapses

On-chain and ETF behavior confirm that the latest drawdown is a demand slowdown, not a full-scale exit. Long-term holder data (Hodler Net Position Change) shows balances around 232.1 million XRP on January 20 versus 231.55 million XRP on January 24 for the long-term cohort—a reduction of only ~0.55 million XRP, not a capitulation. That is effectively a pause in accumulation, not distribution at scale
The more aggressive selling has come from whale addresses in the 10–100 million XRP bracket. Balances in that band fell from roughly 11.16 billion XRP to 11.07 billion XRP, meaning around 90 million XRP—roughly $160–$180 million at current prices—has been distributed. Combined with the $40.64 million weekly ETF outflows, that explains why the price could not launch off the failed hidden bullish divergence: every attempt at a bounce hits structural sell supply from whales and profit-taking from ETF holders rebalancing after a strong prior run
From an XRPI/XRPR perspective, this is not benign, but it is manageable. Whales taking profit into strength and ETFs recording their first outflow week are typical after a fast appreciation period. What matters is whether the structural investor base—long-term holders, ETF AUM, and institutional product creation—remains intact. With XRP ETF AUM at $1.36 billion, cumulative inflows at $1.23 billion, and no evidence of mass redemptions beyond the one-week outflow, the structural base is still in place

Risk Cases: What Breaks The XRP Bullish Structure For XRPI And XRPR

The downside scenarios are clear and must be quantified if you are trading XRPI, XRPR or XRP-USD with size
– Technical breakdown below $1.85–$1.86: A daily close under that wedge support zone activates the $1.70 target and potentially the $1.42 extension, which implies roughly 25% downside from the current $1.90 area. That would drag XRPI toward the lower end of its $10.44–$23.53 range and likely revisit the $10–$10.50 band, while XRPR would risk retesting or undercutting $14.79
– Persistent ETF outflows: If the $40.64 million weekly outflow is not a one-off but the start of a multi-week pattern, the cumulative $1.23 billion net inflow becomes a source of supply rather than a support. A sustained negative flow regime would cap rallies and force the ETF complex to become a source of XRP distribution on every macro shock
– Legislative failure or long delay: If the Market Structure Bill stalls beyond H1 2026 or gets watered down into a framework that does not materially increase XRP’s utility, the core bull argument—rising on-chain use plus regulated capital market access—weakens. Price would then be driven almost entirely by macro and ETF flows, making it harder to justify medium-term targets like $3.00–$3.66
– Macro shock and carry-trade unwind: A more hawkish BoJ stance (neutral closer to 2%), higher-for-longer Fed expectations, or renewed tariff volatility could trigger a broader risk-off move like the mid-2024 yen carry unwind. In that scenario, crypto ETFs across the board get hit, and XRP would likely underperform given its beta and the presence of leveraged players in futures and options
If those risk elements stack—technical break below $1.85, multi-week ETF outflows, legislative stagnation and a macro risk-off—the probability of a retest of the $1.42 zone spikes, and XRPI/XRPR revert closer to their 52-week lows rather than climbing back toward prior peaks

Upside Cases: Path Back To $3.00–$3.66 And What That Implies For XRPI/XRPR

The bullish roadmap is equally explicit and built around clear triggers
Short-term (1–4 weeks), the constructive scenario targets around $2.50. For that to materialize, XRP-USD needs to: reclaim $2.00, hold above the 0.236 Fibonacci at $1.9888, and close above the 20-day EMA (~$1.9993) and 50-day EMA (~$2.0367). That shift would signal that the correction from $2.70 has finished and the market is rotating back into trend resumption. In that environment, XRPI moves away from the $11 area toward the mid-teens, and XRPR starts approaching the $18–$20 region again
Medium-term (4–8 weeks), several analyses cluster around a $3.00 target for XRP-USD, assuming the Market Structure Bill progresses, ETF flows turn positive again, and macro conditions stabilize with rising odds of H1 2026 Fed cuts. A move from $1.90 to $3.00 is roughly 58% upside in the underlying. Given typical ETF tracking plus slippage, XRPI would be positioned to challenge the upper half of its range, pushing toward the high teens or low twenties. XRPR, with thinner liquidity, could overshoot proportionally, moving back toward $22–$24
Longer-term (8–12 weeks), the referenced projections focus on $3.66, essentially a retest of XRP’s prior all-time high on major spot venues. Some scenarios then outline a 6–12 month extension toward $5.00 if legislation, ETF adoption, and macro tailwinds all align. For XRPI and XRPR, those levels imply testing or surpassing their current 52-week highs ($23.53 for XRPI, $25.99 for XRPR), especially if new capital enters via US spot ETFs and multi-asset products like the Ark Coindesk 20 fund
The necessary conditions for that upside path are clear:
– Sustained ETF inflows resuming after the recent $40.64 million outflow week
– Senate passage of a credible Market Structure Bill that unlocks more XRP utility
– Macro environment that shifts from rate uncertainty to a clearer easing trajectory
– Technical confirmation via breaks above $2.00, $2.12, $2.28 and $2.34, followed by an attack on $3.00–$3.66

Verdict On XRPI, XRPR And XRP-USD: Buy, Sell Or Hold?

Based strictly on the numbers, flows and structure you provided, the XRP ETF complex is in a corrective phase inside a still-intact medium-term bull structure
– XRP-USD: trading around $1.80–$1.90, sitting on top of $1.77–$1.85 support, with clear upside targets at $2.50, $3.00 and $3.66, and clear downside at $1.70–$1.42 if support fails
– XRPI (XRP ETF, NASDAQ: XRPI): around $11.04, heavily discounted versus its $23.53 52-week high, with robust liquidity and direct sensitivity to US spot ETF flows
– XRPR (REX Osprey XRP ETF, BATS: XRPR): around $15.77, thinner but higher-beta, also well below its $25.99 high and more sensitive to retail and tactical flows
The first weekly XRP ETF outflow of $40.64 million is a warning that the easy inflow regime is over, not a signal that the structural story has collapsed. Cumulative inflows of $1.23 billion, $1.36 billion AUM, continued net inflows into funds like the Bitwise XRP ETF, and futures data showing cleaned-up leverage and renewed positioning support a moderately bullish stance with explicit risk management
On that basis, and given current prices well below recent highs but above structural support, the data supports the following stance:
– XRP-USD: BULLISH / BUY with defined risk, as long as $1.77–$1.85 holds on a daily closing basis and ETF flows do not flip into sustained multi-week heavy outflows
– XRPI: BUY for investors seeking the core, liquid ETF expression of the XRP trade, accepting volatility but benefiting from solid volume and direct linkage to the US spot ETF ecosystem
– XRPR: HIGH-BETA BUY / SPECULATIVE OVERWEIGHT for accounts that can tolerate lower liquidity and sharper swings; structurally exposed to the same XRP drivers but more sensitive to retail sentiment and execution risk
If $1.85 breaks and weekly ETF outflows persist, that rating drops to HOLD with focus on capital preservation and re-entry closer to the $1.42 area. As long as support holds and the Market Structure Bill remains on the table, the asymmetry still favors owning XRP-USD, XRPI and XRPR into volatility rather than standing aside.

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