XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR Slide 10% as Ripple Swell 2025 and SEC Decision Set Stage for $3.60 XRP Breakout

Ripple’s XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR Face Sharp 10% Drop Ahead of Swell 2025 as SEC Decision and Whale Accumulation Define Market Path

XRP ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) closed at $13.51, down 10.41%, while REX Osprey XRP ETF (BATS:XRPR) finished the session at $18.77, a 10.70% decline, reflecting intensified volatility as investors brace for pivotal regulatory and institutional catalysts. After-hours trading offered a mild recovery to $13.64 for XRPI and $18.86 for XRPR, signaling cautious accumulation from dip buyers. Both ETFs are now trading just above their 52-week lows—$12.69 for XRPI and $18.31 for XRPR—and well below their recent highs of $23.53 and $25.99, respectively. Despite this correction, institutional flows and imminent SEC developments continue to fuel speculation that Ripple’s ETF narrative could redefine digital-asset exposure within U.S. markets.

Institutional Momentum Builds as XRP ETF Approval Nears

Momentum around the spot XRP ETF accelerated after the SEC missed multiple review deadlines in October due to the U.S. government shutdown, potentially triggering automatic approval of several filings. Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, projected that the first XRP ETF approval could occur within two weeks, citing regulatory backlogs and precedent from Litecoin and Hedera ETF listings. Grayscale’s XRP ETF was first approved on October 17, followed by applications from 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and WisdomTree. Among them, Bitwise’s updated filing, featuring a 0.34% management fee and plans to trade on NYSE Arca, indicates operational readiness. Canary Capital’s revised launch target of November 13 suggests imminent ETF activation, potentially unleashing over $1 billion in initial inflows, according to projections by Geraci and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

Ripple’s Legal Victory Reshapes Institutional Access to XRP

The legal dismissal of the SEC’s five-year lawsuit against Ripple Labs removed the primary barrier preventing U.S. institutions from directly holding XRP-linked assets. The case, which accused Ripple of selling unregistered securities, had cast uncertainty across global capital markets. Its closure earlier in 2025 under the leadership of new SEC Chair Paul Atkins, appointed by the Trump administration, marked a regulatory turning point. This decision legitimized XRP as a compliant, tradable digital asset under U.S. law, paving the way for fund issuers to construct ETFs with insured custody and transparent pricing models. Market analysts now interpret the upcoming ETF approval as the “final institutional unlock,” enabling advisors, pension funds, and endowments to access XRP without navigating crypto exchanges or unregulated custodians.

XRPI and XRPR ETF Price Performance Mirrors XRP Volatility

As speculation intensified, both XRPI and XRPR mirrored the underlying XRP-USD volatility. XRP itself trades at $2.42, down 4.67% in the past 24 hours after peaking at $2.54, with trading volume spiking 75% week-over-week. This surge reflects heightened positioning ahead of the Ripple Swell Conference 2025, scheduled for November 4–5 in New York. Historical patterns show that XRP often rallies into Swell events—up 31% before Swell 2023 and up 82% before Swell 2024—followed by post-event corrections. The 2025 conference is expected to feature key regulatory updates, RLUSD stablecoin integration news, and new partnerships with Nasdaq, Citigroup, BNY Mellon, and Fidelity—participants that could enhance institutional trust in Ripple’s ecosystem.

Whale Accumulation and Treasury Moves Signal Strategic Positioning

Blockchain analytics from Santiment and Coinglass reveal that wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP expanded their collective holdings from 6.9 billion to 8.24 billion tokens in the last three weeks. On October 31 alone, net whale inflows exceeded $4 million, signaling accumulation despite price weakness. This accumulation trend correlates with treasury activity from Evernorth, a Ripple-backed firm planning to build a $1 billion XRP corporate reserve, showing early adoption by institutional treasuries preparing for regulated ETF flows. The correlation between whale positioning and ETF anticipation suggests that long-term holders are consolidating supply ahead of capital inflows from traditional finance.

Macro Backdrop and Market Rotation Shape Near-Term ETF Sentiment

The broader macro environment continues to weigh on crypto sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm near 100, pressuring risk assets. Bitcoin’s retreat to $106,763 and Ethereum’s drop below $3,600 triggered risk-off positioning, pulling funds temporarily from altcoin ETFs like XRPI and XRPR. Nonetheless, XRP’s appeal as a payments-focused asset with cross-border utility gives it a differentiated thesis relative to Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. Institutional models predict XRP ETF flows could exceed $1 billion within three months, fueled by demand from registered investment advisors (RIAs) seeking compliant crypto exposure within managed portfolios.

Technical Outlook: XRP-USD Eyes $2.80 Resistance and $2.00 Support

From a technical standpoint, XRP-USD remains in a consolidation phase between $2.00 and $2.80. The $2.34 pivot serves as short-term support, while a decisive breakout above $2.80 could open room toward $3.10–$3.12, aligning with Murrey Math resistance. Should ETF approval materialize this month, momentum could push the token toward $3.60, and in a high-volume scenario, even $5.00, replicating Bitcoin ETF launch behavior that saw $17 billion in inflows within 30 days. Conversely, a regulatory delay or muted Swell announcements could send XRP back to retest $2.00–$2.10, where heavy on-chain support resides. For XRPI, the next recovery target lies near $15.50, while XRPR could rebound to $21.00 if ETF approval coincides with renewed market optimism.

XRP ETFs and the Future of Cross-Border Payments

Approval of XRP ETFs could mark a watershed for crypto-finance integration. With Ripple’s payment technology already adopted by banks and remittance firms globally, ETFs like XRPI and XRPR offer regulated exposure to XRP’s settlement infrastructure. This opens institutional access for entities seeking liquidity and compliance in cross-border payments without engaging in direct crypto transactions. Moreover, the introduction of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, expected to gain NYDFS approval, will further strengthen XRP’s role as a bridge asset between fiat and on-chain liquidity, enabling real-time global payrolls and transaction settlements.

Regulatory Clarity Spurs Global ETF Expansion

Outside the U.S., XRP-based ETPs such as 21Shares AXRP (listed on SIX Swiss Exchange) and CoinShares Physical XRP have already accumulated over $366 million in assets, proving demand for XRP investment vehicles. With the SEC now establishing uniform standards for spot crypto ETFs, U.S. approval of XRPI and XRPR would synchronize global market access. Analysts anticipate that once the SEC confirms the first listing under NYSE Arca or BATS, copycat filings in Europe and Asia could double global XRP-linked ETF AUM to $2 billion within six months.

Ripple Swell 2025 and the Path Ahead

The upcoming Ripple Swell Conference represents the most pivotal event in XRP’s institutional journey since its legal exoneration. Expected announcements regarding RLUSD integration, potential ETF approval timelines, and new financial partnerships could ignite a medium-term rally. The participation of senior policymakers from the White House, executives from Nasdaq, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, and Fidelity, and the inclusion of DeFi integration panels mark a new era of legitimacy for Ripple’s ecosystem.

Verdict: BUY — XRPI and XRPR Positioned for ETF-Driven Institutional Repricing

Considering the regulatory setup, whale activity, and macro alignment, both XRP ETFs — XRPI (NASDAQ) and XRPR (BATS) — earn a BUY rating. With spot prices consolidating near multi-month support, ETF inflows projected above $1 billion, and Ripple’s global payments network expanding, the risk-reward profile favors accumulation. Short-term volatility remains likely around the $13–$15 zone for XRPI and $18–$21 for XRPR, but structural catalysts—including ETF approval and Swell-driven announcements—support an upside target of $3.60 for XRP-USD, translating into ETF price recovery toward $25 for XRPR and $20 for XRPI once institutional demand accelerates.

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