XRP Eyes ETF Breakthrough as SEC Review Nears — XRP-USD Holds $2.39 After $708M Selloff

Ripple’s XRP-USD Surges as SEC Nears ETF Decisions Amid $19B Liquidation Shock

The digital asset market faced one of its most volatile weeks in recent memory, with XRP-USD rebounding sharply to $2.39, up +0.42%, after a series of heavy liquidations wiped nearly $708 million from XRP-linked futures positions. The crash came as part of a wider crypto flash event that erased over $500 billion from total market capitalization and sent Bitcoin plunging from $123,000 to $107,000 within minutes. Despite the turbulence, XRP’s resilience has drawn renewed institutional focus as six XRP spot ETF filings approach the SEC’s review window between October 18 and 24, potentially redefining Ripple’s market position.

ETF Momentum Builds: XRP ETF (XRPI) and REX-Osprey™ XRP ETF (XRPR) Under Spotlight

Two funds are taking center stage ahead of the SEC’s long-awaited decision—XRP ETF (XRPI) and REX-Osprey™ XRP ETF (XRPR). The XRPI ETF, listed on Nasdaq at $16.02, slipped 4.36% on the day and further to $14.35 after hours, marking a 10.42% decline amid ETF-related uncertainty. Despite the drop, the fund retains $198.82 million in net assets and maintains a NAV of $16.70. Operated by Volatility Shares LLC, it provides managed exposure to XRP futures contracts registered with the CFTC, leveraging collateralized positions in high-quality securities. In contrast, the REX-Osprey™ XRP ETF (XRPR), trading on Cboe at $22.07, recorded a 3.92% intraday decline and fell 10.97% after hours to $19.65, trading within a day’s range of $21.79 to $23.42. With trading volume exceeding 323,000, the ETF mirrors sentiment-driven volatility as investors await regulatory clarity.

Ripple’s ETF Race Intensifies as BlackRock and Grayscale Signal Entry

The potential approval of multiple spot XRP ETFs—including filings by Grayscale, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton—marks a pivotal shift in institutional positioning. Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign a 97% probability of SEC approval, a level unseen since Bitcoin’s own ETF clearance earlier this year. Analysts forecast that, should XRP follow Bitcoin’s ETF trajectory, the token could target $3.30 to $3.50, representing nearly a 50% upside from current levels. The growing competition between asset managers underscores Ripple’s expanding role in digital settlement technology and its increasing proximity to mainstream financial markets.

Ripple Faces Macro Headwinds: U.S.-China Tariffs and Government Shutdown Delay ETF Momentum

Market sentiment around XRP-USD has been further shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty. The announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports by President Donald Trump rattled risk assets, triggering a liquidity cascade that affected nearly every major crypto. Data from Derive.xyz revealed that over $7 billion was liquidated within an hour, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for $3.3 billion and XRP joining a broader altcoin selloff. The timing proved critical—Capitol Hill gridlock over the U.S. government shutdown, now projected to last over 31.9 days, threatens to push back ETF decisions initially expected this month. Analysts estimate that six out of the seven pending XRP ETF launch dates may face delays if the shutdown extends into November, dampening near-term institutional participation.

Technical Breakdown: XRP Holds $2.3 Support, Tests $2.4 Resistance

Despite recent market turmoil, XRP-USD has shown impressive technical resilience. After dropping to $2.7755 earlier in the week, the token recovered above $2.38 and continues to hover near its key support at $2.3. Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook—the 50-day EMA at $2.86 and the 200-day EMA at $2.63 both point to a prevailing bearish bias, yet a sustained move above $2.40 could open room toward $3.00. Analysts identify support levels at $2.30, $2.00, and $1.90, while bullish traders eye a breakout above $2.84 as confirmation of momentum recovery.

Institutional Catalysts: BlackRock’s iShares XRP Trust and Ripple’s Banking License Bid

Institutional momentum continues to build behind Ripple. Reports suggest that BlackRock may soon file an S-1 registration for its iShares XRP Trust, signaling a formal move into the XRP ecosystem. At the same time, Ripple’s ongoing application for a U.S.-chartered banking license and potential inclusion in the Market Structure Bill could redefine its standing within regulated finance. These developments coincide with speculation that blue-chip firms may explore XRP as a treasury asset, particularly as volatility-driven yields in DeFi remain suppressed. Ripple’s integration with cross-border payment networks also threatens SWIFT’s dominance, potentially accelerating adoption across institutional corridors in Asia and Europe.

Ripple’s XRP ETFs in Context: Comparing XRPI and XRPR Performance Metrics

The XRPI ETF launched with a 0.94% expense ratio and has delivered a 16.37% three-month return, though its YTD and 1-year returns remain flat as it awaits liquidity inflows tied to ETF approvals. By contrast, XRPR has traded within a 52-week range of $21.78 to $25.99, maintaining price parity with XRP’s broader market trend. Both funds remain speculative vehicles until final SEC rulings unlock institutional participation, with analysts projecting potential daily volume expansion above 1 million shares post-approval.

Macro Correlations: XRP’s Link to Global Risk Assets and Yield Curve Inversions

The XRP ecosystem has become increasingly correlated with macro risk indicators. As oil prices dropped below $60 and Treasury yields broke lower last week, capital rotation into digital assets temporarily supported XRP before renewed volatility hit. Bitcoin dominance above 60% and short-dated volatility surpassing 50% now define a market entering a structural shift. XRP’s position as a liquidity-focused digital asset places it at the intersection of macro risk hedging and fintech innovation—a rare duality that could amplify returns if institutional demand solidifies through ETF inflows.

Ripple’s Strategic Outlook: Can XRP Overcome Policy Delays and Volatility Traps?

Ripple’s short-term trajectory hinges on three immediate catalysts—SEC ETF approvals, U.S.-China trade clarity, and Capitol Hill budget resolution. A synchronized positive outcome across these fronts could reignite investor confidence and propel XRP-USD above the $3.00 threshold. Conversely, extended policy deadlock and BlackRock’s hesitation to advance its ETF filings could expose XRP to a renewed drop toward $2.00. The coming weeks will determine whether Ripple’s transformation into an institutional-grade liquidity asset gains regulatory validation or faces another cycle of speculative rotation.

Final View: XRP-USD and ETF Complex Enter Critical Crossroad

The combined setup of XRP-USD trading at $2.39, XRPI ETF at $16.02, and XRPR ETF at $22.07 reflects a market standing on the edge of regulatory breakthrough. With $198.82 million in XRPI assets, growing ETF inflows, and near-unanimous expectations of SEC approval, Ripple’s ecosystem sits at an inflection point between volatility and institutional maturity. If ETF approvals align with a de-escalation in U.S.-China tariffs and a resolution to the government shutdown, XRP-USD could retest $3.50, signaling the start of a new liquidity-driven cycle. For now, despite macro stress, data supports a Bullish outlook on Ripple (XRP-USD) with rising accumulation, ETF optimism, and robust technical defense above $2.30.

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