XRP Price Forecast - Fed Rate Cuts Define $3.00 Rebound Path as XRP-USD Holds $2.06

Ripple (XRP-USD) Faces Heavy Selling as Whales Exit, ETFs Cool, and Fed Cuts Loom

XRP Trades Near $2.06 With ETF Inflows Slowing and Whale Selling Pressure Rising

Ripple’s token XRP (XRP-USD) trades at $2.06, down 4.5% on December 10 as the broader crypto market braces for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The token has failed repeatedly to break the $2.12–$2.17 resistance zone, reversing each attempt with sharp selling. Large-scale holders have accelerated their distribution phase—510 million XRP moved to exchanges in the past week—signaling renewed bearish pressure.

Weak Technical Structure Below $2.12 Signals Control by Sellers

After touching a high of $2.17, XRP fell below its short-term trendline and now trades under all major moving averages: 50-day EMA $2.26, 100-day EMA $2.42, and 200-day EMA $2.46. The failure to close above $2.12 flipped sentiment negative, converting the level into entrenched resistance.
Momentum indicators confirm exhaustion—RSI 43.9 (neutral-bearish) and MACD hovering near its red signal line—while volumes continue to decline on rebounds, confirming a loss of buyer conviction. A sustained break below $2.05 would expose $2.00 and the next major support at $1.90, already tested multiple times since November.

Whales Shift From Accumulation to Distribution as Exchange Flows Spike

On-chain data from large wallets (>10 million XRP) show rising outbound flows to exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. In previous bullish phases, whales accumulated during consolidation; now they are reducing exposure.
The buy-sell ratio of large orders has reversed, with market makers avoiding defense of the $2.10 level. Heavy sell walls between $2.15 – $2.20 cap any short-term rallies. Institutional behavior mirrors liquidity harvesting rather than long-term positioning—indicative of tactical trades, not conviction.

ETF Inflows Lose Momentum as Institutional Interest Fades

After seventeen consecutive days of inflows, XRP ETFs added just $9 million on Tuesday, bringing total inflows to $944 million with $945 million in net assets. A push above the $1 billion mark is needed to confirm sustained institutional demand.
At the same time, XRP futures Open Interest stands at $3.71 billion, far below July’s $10.94 billion peak. This indicates weakening retail participation and fading speculative leverage, both of which limit the potential for large upside moves.

AI Models Split on Direction but Agree on Incoming Volatility

Independent model testing by CryptoPotato compared three neural networks to evaluate near-term XRP potential.
A trend-based neural net identified a strong structural floor between $2.05 – $2.10, assigning a 62% probability of an upward breakout if volume stabilizes above 3.7 billion USD per day.
An LSTM pattern model predicted 73% odds of a volatility event up to ±18%, describing the current compression as a “coiled spring.”
A multi-factor AI pointed to rising XRPL transaction velocity (0.0324, the highest of 2025) and growing cross-border settlement activity—signs of deep liquidity that could mitigate sharp downside moves.
Combined, the models indicate volatility with a mild upside bias if macro catalysts align.

Macro Environment and Fed Policy Could Decide Direction

The market’s focus remains the Federal Reserve’s December decision, expected to lower rates to 3.50% – 3.75%. A dovish tone could lift risk sentiment, aiding XRP-USD recovery toward $2.26 (50-day EMA). However, if the Fed signals caution, XRP may remain capped below $2.12, with bears maintaining control into mid-December.

Short-Term Forecast: Compression Persists Between $2.05 – $2.17

Technical models suggest continued sideways action until either $2.05 or $2.22 breaks decisively. Forecast path:

• Dec 12: $2.06

• Dec 13 – 14: $2.05

• Dec 15: $2.08
  This projects a mild -1.7% weekly dip, consistent with tightening volatility and reduced liquidity inflows.

Long-Term Catalyst: Utility Adoption Required for Any $10 Ambition

Analysts emphasize that ETF inflows alone cannot push XRP to double digits. Avinash Shekhar, CEO of Pi42, notes that lasting appreciation depends on real-world payment adoption—institutional settlement, remittances, and enterprise rails. Without that, every ETF-driven surge risks fading as speculative money rotates out.
Still, if ETF demand continues above $1 billion and on-chain payment volumes expand concurrently, long-term projections between $7 – $10 remain plausible within 24 months.

Outlook and Verdict

XRP holds a fragile equilibrium. Momentum remains weak, whales are selling, and ETF flows are slowing. Yet the macro backdrop and strong structural support near $2.00 keep full capitulation at bay.
Verdict: Hold / Neutral Bias.
Upside scenario requires a close above $2.22 – $2.30 to target $2.57 short-term; downside breach below $1.90 reopens $1.75 – $1.55. Long-term bullish potential survives only if adoption metrics improve and ETFs exceed $1 billion inflows.

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