XRP Price Forecast: $1.72 Support Vs. $2.30 Ceiling As XRP ETF Outflows Hit $40M

XRP-USD: LATE-CYCLE HEAVYWEIGHT STUCK BETWEEN $2.30 RESISTANCE AND $1.70 SUPPORT

Short-Term Structure For XRP-USD: Compressed Between $1.72–$1.95 After A 23% Shakeout

XRP-USD is trading around $1.90–$1.95 after a fast round-trip from the early-January high near $2.41. The drop was brutal: roughly a 23% decline after price hit a long-running descending trendline that has rejected every serious advance since mid-2025. That rejection flushed longs and forced the pair back into a familiar demand zone. On the downside, the $1.84–$1.72 band has again proved critical. That range absorbed heavy selling earlier in the month, exactly as it did in prior pullbacks. The current spot area near $1.91–$1.92 sits just above that floor and just below the immediate ceiling at $1.95, which now acts as the first real battleground. Technically, the structure is fragile. On the eight-hour chart, XRP-USD has built a clear bearish pennant: a vertical drop from about $2.4145, followed by a tightening triangle as volatility contracts. Price is also trading below the 50-day moving average near $1.99 and well under the 200-day moving average around $2.55, turning both into overhead supply. As long as XRP fails to close and hold above roughly $1.95–$2.00 with strong participation, the move off the lows looks like a corrective bounce inside a broader down-tilted structure, not a confirmed trend change.

Liquidity, Derivatives And ETF Flows Around XRP: First Outflow Week Hits As Futures Go Sideways

Spot liquidity is solid but not aggressive. On one venue, XRP traded between $1.8886 and $1.9591 over 24 hours with about $2.25 billion in volume and a daily move around +1.3%, while still down roughly 4.7% over the week. Another snapshot shows daily volume near $1.64 billion and a weekly slide close to 7%. The message is consistent: money is active, but not in “chase mode” above $1.90. In derivatives, positioning has shifted from expansion to a holding pattern. Open interest sits around $3.34 billion after months of sideways movement, while futures volume near $4.35 billion suggests traders are mostly maintaining or trimming risk rather than adding fresh leverage at current levels. There is no evidence of forced capitulation, but also no sign of aggressive new long campaigns while price is pinned under resistance. On the listed-product side, spot XRP ETFs just printed their weakest week since launch. Net outflows this week reached about $40 million, pulling against cumulative inflows of roughly $1.23 billion since the vehicles started trading in November. It is the first weekly outflow event, and it landed while XRP-USD is stuck below $2.00. That combination signals that some institutional holders are taking profit or de-risking rather than averaging down into the $1.90 zone. At the same time, index design shows how entrenched XRP remains in institutional baskets. A proposed S&P Crypto 10 product assigns XRP a 5% weighting, while another broad crypto ETF benchmarked to the CoinDesk 20 Index gives XRP roughly 19.88%, placing it just behind BTC and ETH in impact. The flows say digestion, not abandonment: strategic weightings remain high, but short-term capital is no longer one-way.

RLUSD Stablecoin, Binance Distribution And The Ripple Stack Around XRP

Ripple’s dollar-pegged stablecoin RLUSD has become a structural piece of the XRP story even though the market cap has stalled around $1.3 billion for months. Growth has paused, but the integration breadth just widened. Binance has expanded its support for RLUSD, listing it against USDT, its dollar-margined segment and XRP itself, while launching zero-fee promotions on selected pairs to seed volume. The exchange is also pulling RLUSD into its Earn, Convert and VIP Loan products, making it borrowable on margin and available across cross, isolated and portfolio margin modes. That turns RLUSD from a niche instrument into a stablecoin that can sit inside leveraged trading, yield products and basic conversions on one of the largest venues in the market. On top of that, RLUSD is lined up for expansion to other chains through Wormhole, which extends Ripple’s reach into multi-chain liquidity rather than confining it to a single network. Despite these plumbing upgrades, price behaviour makes one point clear: the market currently treats RLUSD as infrastructure, not as an immediate upside trigger for XRP-USD. The stablecoin’s flat market cap and XRP’s inability to clear $1.95–$2.00 show that traders are waiting for hard evidence of volume migration, settlement flows and stablecoin share gains before they re-rate the token on this factor.

Regulatory Footprint: 75+ Licenses As A Compliance Moat For XRP

Ripple’s licensing map is now one of the largest in crypto, with more than 75 regulatory licenses and approvals secured across major jurisdictions. In the UK, Ripple has both an Electronic Money Institution license and crypto asset registration from the FCA, allowing regulated digital payment and asset services in one of the top global banking hubs. In the EU, preliminary EMI authorization in Luxembourg gives passporting rights under the MiCA framework, meaning Ripple can roll out licensed services across all 27 member states from a single base instead of chasing separate approvals country by country. The footprint stretches through Europe, the UK, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and North America, matching the corridors where cross-border settlement is most relevant. Recent headlines add more layers: Japanese regulators are preparing to recognize XRP as a regulated financial asset, and XRP has started to appear in real retail flows, including acceptance as a payment method at a KFC location in Phoenix, Arizona. These steps do not move the chart intraday, but they compound the long-term theme: XRP is increasingly framed as compliant infrastructure for banks, payment companies and institutions rather than a pure speculative meme. That is a defensive moat when regulators are tightening rules and when large counterparties demand clarity before deploying scale.

Market Cap Near $117B, $2.10–$2.30 Resistance And The Asymmetry Problem

At around $1.90 per token and a market capitalization close to $116–$117 billion, XRP is no longer a small-cap story. Analysts tracking the asset note that it is currently boxed under a heavy resistance band between $2.10 and $2.30. That zone has rejected multiple breakout attempts and now concentrates profit-taking and hedging activity. With price already at late-cycle valuations and capitalisation north of $100 billion, a number of medium-term projections for 2026–2027 cluster in a modest 15–35% upside range from current levels, assuming no extraordinary new catalyst. In other words, the asymmetry that existed when XRP traded far below $1 is gone. That is driving some early XRP holders to look at earlier-cycle contenders, such as new lending protocols like MUTM, which still sit at sub-$1 valuations and low single-digit cents entry points, with smaller caps and steeper theoretical upside if their first utility cycles succeed. The contrast is simple: XRP is now priced as a systemically important settlement asset with a massive installed base and regulatory moat; emerging tokens are priced as options on future discovery. That does not disqualify XRP as an investment, but it changes the risk-reward profile. For new capital, paying nearly $117 billion in market cap for a projected 15–35% gain over the next couple of years is a very different decision than paying sub-$10 billion with hundreds of percent of potential upside. The bar for fresh re-rating is higher.

Technical Risk Map For XRP-USD: Bearish Pennant, Moving Averages And Key Levels

The current technical map is tilted cautious. On the eight-hour timeframe, XRP-USD has carved a bearish pennant: a sharp drop from approximately $2.4145, followed by lower highs and higher lows compressing into a converging triangle. That structure typically resolves in the direction of the prior move, which in this case is down. The immediate support band is the $1.84–$1.72 zone that has already absorbed one 23% selloff this year. Below that, the next significant reference is around $1.7712, the December 19 low, roughly 7.6% below current prices. If that level fails, the market will look toward the deeper pivot near $1.61, last year’s floor, as the next place where value buyers may step in size. On the momentum side, the relative strength index sits near 41 and trends lower, leaving room for further weakness before oversold conditions trigger reflexive buying. Price remains below the 50-day moving average around $1.99 and well below the 200-day near $2.55. These moving averages now stack as resistance layers: initial supply just under $2.00, then more durable supply above $2.50 if bulls ever manage a squeeze. Structurally, there is also a longer-running descending triangle in play, where flat support contrasts with a down-sloping series of lower highs. Such formations often lean bearish if the floor eventually gives way. Combined with the bearish pennant, the technical side of the ledger is not yet aligned with a clean, high-conviction upside break.

Macro, Fed Week And Cross-Asset Flows Around XRP

The macro tape explains part of the lethargy. Across the crypto complex, weakness has emerged even as risk assets elsewhere have rallied. BTC trades around $89,000–$90,549, and ETH around $2,951–$2,987, with both under mild pressure. At the same time, U.S. equity indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are hovering near record highs, and precious metals like gold and silver have printed fresh records this year. That cross-asset context signals a rotation: capital has shifted toward equities and metals while reducing incremental exposure to crypto at the margin. The immediate macro catalyst is the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting on January 27–28. Markets are oscillating around the question of how long rates stay elevated and how fast cuts may come. Every shift in that path affects dollar liquidity and risk appetite. Crypto has already shown that “higher for longer” rhetoric can crush speculative leverage quickly. For XRP, that means the Fed week is a volatility event: a dovish tone that weakens the dollar and supports risk could help defend the $1.84–$1.72 floor, while a hawkish surprise could combine with the bearish pennant to push price toward $1.77 or even $1.61. Meanwhile, institutional infrastructure is still expanding. UBS is preparing to let selected Swiss private-bank clients trade BTC and ETH, BitGo’s IPO valued the custody firm at about $2.59 billion after a 24.6% first-day jump, and stablecoins are moving deeper into mainstream finance. Those developments reinforce the structural case for regulated, payment-centric tokens like XRP, but they do not override short-term rate risk or technical deterioration.

Risk Balance And Verdict On XRP-USD: Hold, With A Bearish Tactical Bias Until $1.95–$2.30 Clears

Putting all the data together, XRP-USD sits at an uncomfortable intersection: late-cycle valuation near a $116–$117 billion market cap, a fragile short-term chart, and a powerful but already priced-in regulatory and infrastructure story. On the positive side, Ripple’s 75+ license footprint, FCA and EU approvals, MiCA passporting, Japanese regulatory momentum and real-world payments like KFC Phoenix establish XRP as one of the most credible assets for regulated cross-border settlement. RLUSD integration on Binance and multi-chain plans through Wormhole deepen the stack: a branded stablecoin tied to XRP rails and embedded in major exchange products. Index inclusion confirms institutional relevance, with weights of 5% and 19.88% in new broad crypto ETF proposals, and cumulative ETF inflows still sit near $1.23 billion despite the recent $40 million weekly outflow. On the negative side, the chart shows a bearish pennant under a long-term descending trendline, price trades under the $1.99 50-day and $2.55 200-day moving averages, ETF flows have turned negative for the first time, and futures metrics indicate a market that is waiting rather than committing. The $1.84–$1.72 band has held, but if that floor breaks, a slide toward $1.77 and potentially $1.61 is a realistic scenario. At the same time, resistance in the $1.95–$2.30 zone is dense, and multiple forecasts put expected 2026–2027 gains in the 15–35% range from current prices, which is a modest reward against the downside defined by the bearish patterns and macro uncertainty. The rational stance in this configuration is clear. XRP-USD is a Hold, with a bearish tactical bias while price remains trapped between roughly $1.72 and $2.10. For existing holders with a structural thesis around licensing, payments and RLUSD, the setup argues for risk management rather than panic: respect the $1.72–$1.84 support as the line that keeps the late-cycle range intact and recognize that a breakdown toward $1.61 would be the area where asymmetry starts to improve again. For new capital, the data does not justify calling XRP an outright Buy at $1.90 with resistance overhead and limited projected upside; the better risk-reward appears either on a deep washout into the $1.60–$1.70 region or after a decisive, high-volume break above $2.30 that invalidates the current bearish structures and opens the door to a new leg higher.

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