XRP Price Forecast: $1.90 at Risk as Market Tests $1.85 and $1.77 Support

XRP-USD: Price Pressured Below $2.00 As Market Fear And Flows Turn Against Bulls

Macro Shock, Regulation Delays And The Break Of The $2.00 Anchor On XRP

XRP-USD is trading around $1.90–$1.94, after losing the $2.00 psychological level and dropping roughly 11% in the last week and about 20% from this month’s high. The move is driven by a combination of macro stress and regulatory noise, not just token-specific weakness.
Recent Trump tariff threats on multiple European countries over the Greenland dispute have pushed global risk assets into a defensive mode. Capital rotated out of crypto and into cash and gold, with XRP pulled down together with Bitcoin and the broader market. At the same time, the CLARITY Act, a key US crypto market structure bill, has been delayed again in the Senate, extending regulatory uncertainty for XRP and the rest of the sector.
Sentiment reflects this risk-off mood. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is around 24, in “extreme fear”. Historically, that regime often precedes either a final capitulation flush or a violent mean-reversion spike, but not before weaker positions are forced out.

ETF Flows, Institutional Appetite And The First Clear Sign Of Distribution In XRP

The ETF data confirms that the institutional bid has stepped back. The five US-listed XRP ETFs just ended a seven-day inflow streak that had attracted nearly $70 million. The latest session flipped to about $53.3 million in net outflows, which is the sharpest one-day withdrawal since launch.
That shift matters because it shows that professional money is not trying to “buy the dip” aggressively at $2.00. Instead, the ETF channel is being used to de-risk. Combined with spot selling, that converts $2.00 from a demand zone into a failed level that traders now watch as resistance rather than support.

Daily Structure On XRP-USD: Below $2.00 With $1.77 Back In Play

On the daily chart, XRP-USD has done structural damage. Price has slipped below a multi-month descending trendline that repeatedly acted as support and resistance in previous swings. More importantly, it has broken the horizontal $2.00 pivot, which had functioned as a psychological anchor and decision level for months.
Momentum has rotated lower. The daily RSI fell from overbought territory above 70 back to below 50, which confirms that the early-January surge was a counter-trend squeeze inside a broader downtrend rather than the start of a new bull leg. At the same time, the MACD on the daily turned bearish, with the signal line crossing down and drifting toward or below the zero line. That is not a bottoming signal.
With $2.00 gone, the next logical reference is the December low near $1.77. Several desks now see $1.77 as the main downside test over the coming sessions if buyers continue to hesitate. Below that, some analyses point at the $1.50 area as the deeper extension if the current support cluster fails. The tape is still corrective; nothing on the daily chart justifies calling a sustainable trend reversal while price trades under $2.00–$2.05.

4H Price Map: $1.92, $1.85 And $1.77 As The Critical XRP-USD Support Ladder

On the 4-hour chart, sellers still control the intraday structure. XRP-USD trades around $1.89–$1.90 after another failed bounce. The prior support band at $1.92–$1.90 is being tested from above; losing it cleanly would confirm that what used to be a floor is now a supply zone.
The first resistance band sits at $1.95–$1.97. Every attempt to reclaim that zone has been sold into quickly, which shows how little conviction buyers have at current levels. The next more important resistance is $2.01–$2.02, where a key Fibonacci level aligns with prior structure. Only a sustained close above that pocket would seriously challenge the bearish narrative. Above that, the $2.10–$2.17 range acts as a heavier ceiling where aggressive selling came in before, with a more distant cap near $2.28.
On the downside, short-term supports are clearly layered. The $1.92–$1.90 band is the first line. The $1.87–$1.85 zone is the next demand block; if that fails, there is room for accelerated selling as stops cluster below. The major level is $1.77, which is both the December low and the “capitulation magnet” that many traders are watching.
Intraday indicators support this cautious view. The 4H RSI is near oversold, which allows short squeezes but does not signal a trend reversal. The MACD remains negative without a convincing bullish cross. As long as XRP-USD stays below $1.97–$2.02, rallies are better described as counter-trend bounces inside a bearish swing.

Triple Tap Near $1.80: Last Expression Of The Current Bottoming Attempt On XRP

Price action around $1.80 is critical. XRP has now effectively produced a triple tap in the $1.80 area, which some experienced traders describe as the last possible expression of a bottoming formation inside this range.
Under that framework, the structure of the current range is defined with lower support at roughly $1.85–$1.95 and upper resistance around $3.40–$3.60. As long as weekly closes stay above about $1.85, the setup is interpreted as a broad consolidation rather than a confirmed macro top. A wick below $1.85 is acceptable as a liquidity hunt. A weekly close below $1.85–$1.80 would mark structural failure, significantly increasing the probability of a longer and deeper down cycle.
For bulls, $2.05 is the level that needs to be reclaimed and defended to put the chart back into a “safer” zone. Until XRP-USD is trading consistently above that line, the market is operating near the bottom edge of the range with rising risk that the triple tap at $1.80 turns into a breakdown instead of a base.

Derivatives, Open Interest And Leverage Cleaning Around XRP-USD

Derivatives data shows that the market has been de-leveraging, not abandoning XRP. Open interest in XRP futures has fallen from more than $5 billion in January to about $3.35 billion now. That nearly $1.6+ billion contraction reflects traders closing positions and cutting leverage as volatility increased.
Crucially, the current open interest is still above mid-2025 levels, meaning speculative participation remains high. The market is cautious but not dead.
Spot flows confirm the same message. Net spot flows have been negative for extended periods, revealing persistent outflows. There was a clear inflow spike during the late-July move above $3.50, but that rally failed quickly and gave back most of the gains, proving that the underlying demand at those levels was thin. January spot flows are nearly flat, which matches the idea of indecision: traders are not capitulating at any price, but they are also not rushing to allocate fresh capital at $1.90.
Combined with the ETF data, the picture is clean. Leverage is being reduced, institutions are taking risk down via ETF outflows, and the remaining open interest shows that options for both a flush toward $1.77 or a violent squeeze back above $2.05 remain on the table.

XRP Versus Bitcoin: XRP-BTC Still Shows Structural Underperformance

On the XRP/BTC pair, the token continues to underperform Bitcoin. The ratio has again been rejected near 2,400 sats, where the 200-day moving average acts as strong dynamic resistance and overhead supply.
After that rejection, XRP-BTC fell back below the 100-day moving average around 2,200 sats, and is now trading in the lower half of the multi-month range near 2,000 sats. There is a visible downside wick that signals initial dip-buying interest, but there is not yet a confirmed higher low or a clean reclaim of the key moving averages.
As long as the pair remains below both the 100-day and 200-day MAs, relative strength stays with BTC, and any bounce in the XRP-BTC ratio should be treated as corrective. That means even if XRP-USD stabilizes, the relative trade still favors Bitcoin until XRP can print a durable higher low above 2,000 sats and recapture those moving averages.

Fundamentals: RWA Tokenization And Stablecoin Growth Cushion The Bearish Technicals On XRP

The bearish technical structure is complicated by the fact that the XRP Ledger fundamentals are quietly improving. Core use cases are gaining traction in two areas that matter for long-term value: real-world assets and stablecoins.
Monthly data shows a 27% jump in RWA-linked value on XRPL, now above $400 million, an important sign that tokenization experiments are scaling beyond pilots. At the same time, stablecoin market capitalization on XRPL has risen about 11%, confirming that the network is being used more intensively as settlement infrastructure rather than just a speculative bet on price.
Those flows do not cancel the immediate technical damage, but they do argue against a “terminal collapse” narrative. They support the view that the current downswing is a pricing reset in a network that is still building utility, not a collapse of the underlying thesis. That distinction matters for investors looking beyond the next few weeks.

Short-Term Bias, Key Levels And Verdict On XRP-USD: Hold With Bearish Near-Term Skew

The short-term message on XRP-USD is straightforward. Price is below the $2.00 pivot, technical momentum is negative, ETFs have shifted to net outflows of about $53.3 million after a $70 million inflow streak, open interest has fallen from above $5 billion to around $3.35 billion, and key supports at $1.92–$1.90 and $1.87–$1.85 are under pressure.
If $1.85–$1.90 fails decisively, a move toward $1.77 is a realistic next step, and a weekly close below that region would open the door for a deeper retrace toward the $1.50 area flagged by several technical desks. On the upside, bulls need to regain $1.95–$1.97 first, then $2.01–$2.02, and finally print and hold closes above $2.05 to argue that the current range has shifted from “at risk of breakdown” to “stabilizing base”.
Given this configuration, the stance is Hold on XRP-USD, with a bearish short-term bias. The chart does not justify aggressive new long exposure until either $1.77 is flushed and defended with strong volume, or $2.05 is convincingly reclaimed. Only then will the risk-reward tilt back in favor of the bulls in a way that is consistent with both the price action and the improving on-chain fundamentals.

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