XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Near $2 After $1.84 Flash Crash As Tariffs And Fed Chaos Hammer Ripple

RIPPLE XRP-USD PRICE MAP AROUND $2.00 AFTER THE $1.84 FLASH CRASH

MACRO SHOCK, GREENLAND TARIFFS AND FED DRAMA PRESSURING XRP-USD

Spot XRP-USD trades around $1.95–$2.05 after a sharp rejection in the $2.35–$2.42 area and a flash drop to about $1.84 on January 19. That selloff did not happen in isolation. Across crypto, roughly $873 million of positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with about $787 million from longs, more than 90% of total liquidations. Within that wave, XRP alone saw around $40 million of long liquidations, with roughly 96% of XRP liquidations hitting longs as the price briefly hit $1.8470 before bouncing back toward $1.97–$2.00.

The macro trigger set is clear. New US tariffs tied to the Greenland dispute target eight European countries, and the EU is preparing counter-tariffs on up to €93 billion (~$100 billion) of US goods. At the same time there is a Fed independence crisis built around a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell that is freezing the succession process and raising questions about policy continuity. The result is a “politicised dollar” narrative plus tariff risk, which is pushing global risk assets into de-risking mode. XRP-USD is caught inside that rotation along with the rest of the altcoin complex.

STRUCTURAL DOWNTREND: 13 OF 14 RED SESSIONS AND MAJOR EMA DAMAGE FOR XRP

Technically, the market is not just wobbling; XRP-USD is in a defined downtrend on higher timeframes. The token has printed 13 red sessions out of the last 14, with a local peak near $2.357 earlier in January, followed by a roughly 16% drop into the $1.97 area. The flash crash to $1.84 marks the lowest print since early January 2026 and coincides with the largest long liquidation event since November 2025 (when around $36 million in XRP longs were flushed).

On the 5-day chart, price has spent months inside a downward-sloping regression channel that started after the July 2025 all-time high near $3.65. A custom trend “ribbon” that tracked most of the 2025 uptrend has been lost-and-retested multiple times from below. Every time XRP-USD approaches that ribbon, sellers take back control. The latest push to roughly $2.40–$2.42 has again failed, keeping the structural bear intact and keeping downside targets on the table.

MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICALS: EMAS, MOMENTUM AND VOLATILITY FOR XRP-USD

On the daily timeframe, XRP-USD is trading below every meaningful moving average. Price sits around $1.97–$2.01, under the 20-day EMA near $2.05, the 50-day EMA around $2.07, and far below the 200-day EMA in the $2.30–$2.56 zone depending on source and chart settings. That is a clean bearish alignment: short-term, medium-term and long-term trend filters are all above price.

Daily RSI sits in the low-40s, around 43–44, firmly below the 50 neutral line but not yet oversold. That means the market is trending down without having hit exhaustion. MACD on D1 has the line below the signal with a mild negative histogram, confirming that upside momentum has rolled over but has not entered a capitulation phase. Bollinger bands on the daily chart show price in the lower half of the envelope, moving away from the upper band near $2.30+ and leaning towards the lower band in the $1.85 region.

Volatility has compressed. Daily ATR is roughly $0.10 on a $1.95–$2.00 asset, about 5% of price, which is modest for XRP. On intraday charts, hourly ATR around $0.03 and 15-minute ATR near $0.01 show very tight ranges. The tape is coiling under resistance: directional bias is down, but the move that resolves this compression has not fired yet.

KEY LEVELS FOR XRP-USD: $2.52, $2.24, $2.08 RESISTANCE VS $1.96, $1.84, $1.61–$1.25 SUPPORT

The entire structure for XRP-USD now revolves around a few precise levels.

On the upside, the first wall is $2.02–$2.05, where short-term Fibonacci resistance clusters with the 20-day EMA and short EMAs on intraday charts. Above that, a heavier block sits at $2.07–$2.08 where stronger moving-average resistance and a previously rejected mid-range zone align. This band has already turned back multiple rally attempts. Clearing $2.08 with real volume is the first condition for a trend shift.

Higher up, a supply zone at $2.17–$2.28 matches a thicker Fibonacci cluster and prior distribution area. Only after that can the market talk again about $2.35–$2.42, which is the recent swing high and the zone that triggered the latest liquidation cascade. Above those levels, pattern-based work from the inverse head-and-shoulders structure points to a neckline near $2.52 and an eventual measured target roughly 33% above current prices if that neckline is broken and held.

On the downside, the market is currently leaning on $1.96–$1.97 as immediate support. A clean breakdown below $1.96 invites a test of approximately $1.9236, the 0.236 Fibonacci level from the last impulsive leg. Beneath that, the $1.84–$1.85 band, which already produced a strong intraday bounce, remains a critical demand pocket. If that fails, $1.77 comes into play as the broader range floor identified in multiple analyses.

Beyond the near-term range, the structural bear targets flagged on higher timeframes are $1.61 (April 2025 lows) and $1.25 (the 2024 cycle minimum). A move from $1.97 to $1.61 would be about a 19% drop; from $1.97 to $1.25 would be roughly 37% downside. Those levels line up with the lower edge of the long-running regression channel and a multi-year rising trendline that sits in the $1.30–$1.40 region on the 5-day chart. That is where a true higher-timeframe test of long-term support would unfold if sellers keep control.

WHALE AND HOLDER FLOWS: 17M XRP ADDED, 5.2% HOLDER GROWTH SUPPORTING XRP

On-chain data shows that while price has broken down, large holders are not capitulating; they are scaling in.

Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP increased their combined balance from roughly 11.14 billion to 11.17 billion tokens since January 14, an addition of about 30 million XRP, worth close to $60 million at around $2.00. Smaller whales in the 1–10 million XRP cohort lifted their holdings from about 3.54 billion to 3.59 billion, roughly 50 million XRP, close to $100 million in notional value. Some of that flow was partially reduced during the correction on January 15, but net positioning since January 14 remains positive.

Long-term holder behaviour confirms the same pattern. The “holder for ~155 days+” cohort stood near 223,201,195 XRP on January 16 and moved to around 234,886,841 XRP by January 18. That is an increase of roughly 11.69 million XRP, a 5.2% rise in just two days. The timing matters: whales started buying during the initial pullback, while long-term holders joined after the structure weakened. That staggered accumulation points to planned risk-taking rather than panicked dip-chasing.

Net flows, however, are still cautious. The latest spot flow print was around –$4.59 million, confirming that distribution is not fully over. The message is mixed: larger, patient capital is accumulating into weakness, while part of the shorter-horizon market continues to sell into every bounce.

DERIVATIVES POSITIONING: SHORT SKEW, LIQUIDATION POOLS AND OPEN INTEREST RESET ON XRP

Derivatives positioning around XRP-USD is extreme and asymmetric. On perpetual futures, the estimated liquidation pool shows roughly $520 million of short-side leverage versus about $22 million on the long side, a configuration where more than 95% of liquidation-sensitive open interest is stacked on the short side. That means even a moderate upside break through the nearest resistance zones can unleash a non-linear squeeze.

Open interest tells the story of the last phase. During late 2025, XRP derivatives OI surged above $10 billion as price rocketed past $3.00. That was classic overcrowding. Since then, open interest has cooled to around $3.7 billion while spot trades just under $2.00. Leverage has been reduced, but not drained; there is still enough fuel stranded in both directions to magnify the next move once price escapes the current compression.

The latest decline took place while funding cooled and leveraged longs were forced out. That is why long liquidations dominated, with XRP recording around $29–40 million in long wipes during the crash, the largest since November 2025. With short positioning now dominant and funding more neutral, the tape is reset into a configuration where the trend is down but the risk of a violent counter-move higher is elevated if key resistance thresholds break.

PATTERNS AND STRUCTURE: INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS, ABC CORRECTION AND CHANNELS ON XRP-USD

Three overlapping structures now define the XRP-USD chart.

First, on the daily chart, there is an emerging inverse head-and-shoulders formation with a neckline in the $2.48–$2.52 band and a “right shoulder” forming between roughly $1.84 and $2.24. To make that pattern real, price must first reclaim the 100-day EMA near $2.24, which has already rejected a test on January 14, and then drive into $2.48–$2.52 with conviction. Historically, similar 100-day EMA reclaims in September delivered 12% and 16% upside legs. If that playbook repeats, a reclaim of $2.24 could quickly send XRP-USD back into the mid-$2.40s and potentially set up the projected 33% measured move off the neckline.

Second, on the 5-day timeframe, technical work from other analysts frames the recent action as a three-wave ABC correction from the July 2025 all-time high near $3.65. The bounce to around $2.40 is interpreted as part of the B-wave, not a fresh impulsive bull run. Under that view, the current leg down is the C-wave heading back toward the multi-year rising trendline in the $1.30–$1.40 band. The confirmation trigger for that deeper leg is failure to hold the $1.77–$1.84 area on closing basis.

Third, the downward regression channel drawn from mid-2025 captures the entire decline, with repeated taps on the upper boundary near the $2.40–$2.60 zone and the lower boundary pointing toward $1.61 first and then $1.25 if momentum really accelerates. As long as XRP-USD trades below the top of that channel and under the 200-day EMA (roughly $2.34–$2.56), the safer assumption is that bounces are corrective within a larger downtrend.

SCENARIOS FOR XRP-USD: SHORT-TERM BEAR BIAS, SQUEEZE RISK AND RISK ZONES

Short term, the path of least resistance for XRP-USD is still lower, but the structure is fragile enough that the next large move can overshoot both ways.

Bearish continuation looks like this: price fails to regain $2.02–$2.05, intraday rallies into $1.99–$2.03 are sold, and daily closes slip under $1.96 and then $1.90. That opens a clean path for a test of $1.9236, then the $1.84–$1.85 demand pocket, and eventually the $1.77 floor. If that floor breaks with heavy volume and a daily close below, the market will start pricing the multi-month downside targets at $1.61 and $1.25 more seriously.

A bullish squeeze scenario requires a different sequence. Bulls must defend $1.96–$1.97 and $1.90 on a closing basis, then force a move through $2.02–$2.05 and the $2.07–$2.08 cluster. A daily close above $2.08 would start to flip intraday momentum and begin pressuring shorts sitting on $520 million in liquidation liquidity. A reclaim of the 100-day EMA at $2.24 would be the next validation that the September playbook is in motion. Only then does the market have a realistic shot at $2.35–$2.42, and only above that can the neckline near $2.52 be attacked and the 33% structure-based upside back into focus.

Between roughly $1.90 and $2.08, XRP-USD is essentially in a “decision band.” Volatility is compressed, open interest is reset but still significant, and both directions have crowded narratives. That band is where risk is high and edge is low for directional bets sized aggressively.

VERDICT ON RIPPLE XRP-USD: SHORT-TERM BEARISH, TACTICAL HOLD UNTIL LEVELS BREAK

Putting the numbers together, XRP-USD sits in a structurally bearish configuration with clear evidence of smart-money accumulation beneath the surface and a derivatives setup that can fuel a squeeze once resistance gives way.

Trend, EMAs and channel structure argue for more downside risk toward $1.77 and possibly $1.61–$1.25 if macro stress and tariff headlines keep hitting the market. Whales adding roughly 80+ million XRP across big cohorts and long-term holders boosting balances by 11.69 million XRP argue against panic-selling deep into those targets. The short-heavy futures book—with over 95% of liquidation-sensitive leverage on the short side—means that any sustained reclaim above $2.08 and especially above $2.24 can accelerate a move higher much faster than spot buyers alone would justify.

Given that mix, the stance on XRP-USD at roughly $2.00 is bearish in the short term with a tactical HOLD bias, not an aggressive buy or outright sell at this exact level. The cleaner opportunities are:

For bulls: high-risk accumulation only on deeper flushes into the $1.60–$1.30 zone or on a confirmed reclaim and hold above $2.24 that proves the inverse head-and-shoulders is alive.
For bears: tactical shorts into failed bounces under $2.05–$2.08 with strict risk control, exiting or flipping quickly if price starts to hold above $2.08 and pushes into the heavy short liquidation pool.

Until XRP-USD either loses $1.84–$1.77 on a daily close or retakes $2.08–$2.24, the market remains in a compressed, down-biased range where patience and precision matter more than trying to chase the next 5–10 cent move.

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