XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Defends $2 as ETF Flows Flip: Can It Reach $3.80 in 2026?

XRP-USD PRICE: CORRECTIVE CHANNEL AROUND THE $2 PIVOT

DAILY STRUCTURE, EMAS AND THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE

XRP-USD trades close to $2.10, sitting in the middle of a corrective channel that has been in place since the July 2025 peak near $3.66–$3.84. Every push higher has been rejected at a descending trendline drawn from the August and October swing highs, and the most recent move into the $2.35–$2.40 band failed at exactly the same line. On the daily chart, that trendline overlaps with the 200-day EMA around $2.34, while the 100-day EMA near $2.22 and the 50-day EMA around $2.07 are stacked in a tight range above and below spot. That creates a compressed zone where each bounce runs into layered resistance. The 20-day EMA near $2.04 offers first support, but the Parabolic SAR above price signals that sellers still control the higher timeframe. As long as XRP-USD trades below the descending trendline and the 200-day EMA at ~$2.34, every rally is technically corrective. A clean daily close above $2.22 and then through $2.40 would be the first confirmation that the current structure is shifting toward a new impulsive leg higher, with room toward $2.75–$3.00. On the downside, the key level is the $2.00 handle: a break below it opens the path toward the December low around $1.77–$1.78, which is the next meaningful support in this cycle.

INTRADAY MOMENTUM: RANGE TRADING AROUND $2.10

On the two-hour chart, XRP-USD is oscillating around the mid-Bollinger band near $2.13, with volatility steadily compressing. Price trades inside a narrow band between roughly $2.07 and $2.16, which indicates a pause rather than a fresh directional move. The RSI sits near 40, below the neutral 50 line, confirming weak upside momentum and a lack of aggressive dip-buying. Each attempt to push RSI back above 50 has failed, and price remains capped under the upper Bollinger band, which fits a market consolidating inside a broader downtrend. The short-term picture is simple: holding above $2.07 and reclaiming $2.22 would tilt intraday flow back toward the bulls; losing $2.00 would align the lower timeframes with the daily bearish bias.

ETF REGIME SHIFT: FROM ONE-WAY INFLOWS TO TWO-SIDED FLOWS

For XRP-USD, ETF behavior is now as important as the spot chart. Since mid-November, seven U.S. spot XRP ETFs absorbed roughly $1.25–$1.30 billion in net inflows, logging over 40 consecutive trading days of positive flows with zero outflow sessions. Those products now hold about 793 million XRP, a non-trivial slice of circulating supply, and pushed total ETF AUM close to $1.6 billion at the recent top. That regime changed on January 7, 2026, when spot XRP ETFs recorded their first meaningful net outflow of approximately $40.8 million, driven mainly by 21Shares’ TOXR, which alone saw around $47.25 million in redemptions. Other issuers reported marginal adjustments, with some still posting small inflows. The next day, January 8, the complex swung back to about $8.7–$9 million in net inflows. The pattern is clear: the market has shifted from a one-way accumulation regime into a two-sided ETF flow regime, where redemptions appear on strength and fresh inflows appear on dips. Structurally, this is still supportive, because cumulative net flows remain above $1.2 billion, but it removes the artificial “always-bid” floor that ETFs had provided during the initial launch phase.

STRUCTURAL SUPPLY SQUEEZE: 57% DROP IN EXCHANGE BALANCES

Beyond ETF custody, the spot float has tightened aggressively. During 2025, exchange-held XRP balances slid from roughly 4.0 billion XRP to about 1.7 billion XRP, a collapse of around 57%. At the same time, circulating supply sits near 60.67 billion XRP out of a 100 billion maximum cap. That means a smaller fraction of total supply is available for immediate trading on centralized venues. When you add ETF holdings of about 793 million XRP on top of this, a large chunk of liquid, tradeable XRP has been removed from short-term circulation. If the December pace of ~$483 million in monthly net inflows were to persist, ETF holdings could rise toward 2.6 billion XRP by year-end, which would represent around 4% of total supply and a much larger slice of real tradable float. At XRP-USD near $2.09–$2.14, that level of structural sequestration is not fully priced in, but the recent outflow shows that supply can briefly be pushed back onto the market if large holders decide to take profit through ETF redemptions.

DERIVATIVES POSITIONING: RETAIL LEVERAGE COOLS AS OI SLIPS

The futures market confirms that speculative appetite has cooled. From January 1 into early January, XRP futures open interest expanded from about $3.33 billion to roughly $4.55 billion, tracking the rally from sub-$2 levels up toward the $2.35–$2.40 resistance zone. As the correction started and the ETF outflow hit, open interest retreated to around $4.15 billion, a decline of roughly $400 million in notional terms. That drop signals that traders are closing positions and reducing leverage instead of averaging into the dip. Combined with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sliding from 55 (neutral/greed) back down to around 27 (fear), the message is consistent: retail leverage is bleeding out of the system. This cool-off, happening while ETFs still post net inflows on balance, means the marginal buyer is shifting from short-term leveraged traders to slower, balance-sheet-driven capital.

MACRO AND CROSS-ASSET CONTEXT: ETF OUTFLOWS ACROSS BTC, ETH AND XRP

The $40.8 million XRP ETF outflow did not happen in isolation. On the same day, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $486 million in net redemptions, with flows led by large vehicles such as FBTC and IBIT, while spot Ethereum ETFs posted around $98.5 million in outflows. That cross-asset pattern points to a broader risk-off shift rather than a token-specific panic. The timing coincides with markets bracing for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which can move Treasury yields, the dollar and risk assets in a single release. A stronger-than-expected jobs number and stickier inflation path would likely push rate-cut expectations further out, support higher real yields and put renewed pressure on high-beta crypto assets such as XRP-USD. In parallel, XRP remains embedded in the macro policy and regulatory grid. The 2023 court ruling that XRP sold on exchanges is not a security and the SEC case settlement in 2025 removed the existential litigation overhang. Legislative efforts such as the CLARITY Act could reduce friction further for banks and institutions, but macro conditions currently dominate the short-term tape.

ETF INFLOWS, TREASURY ADOPTION AND THE $2.50–$4.00 SCENARIO BAND

Institutional models for XRP-USD are clustering around a medium-term band rather than a single point. With spot trading near $2.09–$2.14, about 37% below the $3.65–$3.84 peak from July 2025, the conservative camp sees a $2.50–$3.50 range as achievable in 2026 if ETFs continue to attract $300–$500 million per month, exchange balances keep drifting lower and Bitcoin dominance breaks down to trigger another alt-rotation. More constructive frameworks, including the well-publicized $3.90–$4.00 region, assume sustained ETF inflows, continued migration of XRP into custodial products and a modest expansion in real-world usage as a settlement asset. Stretch calls, such as Standard Chartered’s $12.50 target by end-2028, hinge on an estimated $8 billion of ETF flows and a much stronger coupling between Ripple’s global payments rails and direct XRP usage. Those scenarios require several things that do not exist yet at scale: multi-trillion settlement volumes routed through paths where XRP is mandatory, double-digit percentages of supply locked in ETFs and corporate treasuries, and a consistently accommodative macro backdrop. They are possible, but they are not base case. For the current cycle, the realistic discussion is about whether XRP-USD can sustain a range with a floor near $2.00–$2.10 and tops between $3.00 and $4.00 while ETF ownership quietly increases.

BITCOIN DOMINANCE, ALT ROTATION AND XRP’S RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Historically, big moves in XRP-USD have lined up with breakdowns in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D). The surges in 2018, 2021 and 2024 each occurred when capital rotated out of BTC into higher-beta names after extended BTC rallies. In early 2026, XRP has already outperformed both BTC and ETH on a percentage basis over the very short term, with XRP’s January rebound outpacing Bitcoin’s roughly 6% and Ethereum’s roughly 10% advance over the same period. That relative strength is supported by the fact that XRP’s ETF trade remains less crowded than Bitcoin’s, where positioning is already huge. Analysts watching dominance see the ingredients for another alt-rotation: high BTC prices near $90K+, early signs of ETF outflows in BTC, renewed ETF inflows in XRP, and a structural supply squeeze in a token still trading well below its all-time high. If BTC dominance breaks lower and ETF inflows into XRP remain robust, XRP can outperform on a relative basis even if the entire crypto complex remains sensitive to macro headlines.

RETAIL VS INSTITUTIONAL: OPEN INTEREST, FEAR INDEX AND FLOW QUALITY

The split between retail and institutional behavior is now stark. Retail-driven instruments show clear fatigue. The drop in futures open interest from $4.55 billion to $4.15 billion reflects position cuts, not fresh leverage. The Fear & Greed Index rolling down to 27 confirms that sentiment has flipped back to caution. At the same time, the return of ETF inflows after the $40.8 million outflow shows that institutional buyers are still stepping in on weakness. The quality of flow has changed: the market is no longer driven purely by speculative perpetual swaps; it is now anchored by slower money that is less price-sensitive but also more willing to hedge or reduce exposure when macro or technical conditions shift. For XRP-USD, that trade-off means fewer euphoric parabolic spikes and more two-way re-pricing around key levels such as $2.00, $2.40, $3.00 and, later, the old highs near $3.65–$3.84.

KEY LEVELS AND TRIGGERS: WHAT DECIDES THE NEXT LEG FOR XRP-USD

Over the next phase, the path of XRP-USD is likely to be decided at three concrete levels. The first is $2.00, which is both psychological and technical support, aligned with the 50-day EMA near $2.07 and the base of the recent range. As long as this area holds, ETF inflows, supply tightening and a still-constructive MACD buy signal on the daily chart can limit downside. The second is the resistance band between $2.22 and $2.34, where the 100-day EMA, 200-day EMA and the descending trendline converge. A daily close above that cluster would be a true shift and would put $2.75–$3.00 back into focus. The third is the $1.77–$1.78 December low: a daily close below that region, especially if accompanied by renewed ETF outflows and falling open interest, would confirm a deeper corrective phase and force a re-rating of all medium-term bullish scenarios. Until one of these zones breaks decisively, XRP-USD remains a structurally supply-tight, ETF-supported asset trading inside a corrective channel, with the balance of power flipping intraday around the $2.00–$2.40 band.

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