XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds Around $2.07 As ETF Demand And EU License Face $2.01 Support Test

XRP-USD Around $2.04–$2.14: Where XRP Really Stands Now

XRP-USD is trading roughly between $2.04 and $2.14, with one print at $2.1394 down 3.40% on the day and another feed showing $2.07 off about 0.8–1.5%. Market cap sits around $125.17–$125.85 billion, while 24-hour volume runs between $2.5–$2.81 billion, more than 30% below the prior day in some venues. Year-to-date, XRP is still up about 10.11%, but it trades 41.36% under its $3.65 52-week high and comfortably above the $1.53 52-week low. The recent leg from roughly $1.77 up to $2.41, then back toward $2.05–$2.10, defines the current consolidation band.

Spot Structure For XRP-USD: Range, Moving Averages And Bands

Price is pinned between the 50-day moving average at $2.03 and the 200-day at $2.57. Trading above the 50-day but below the 200-day signals a mid-trend phase, not a fresh breakout and not a broken chart. Bollinger Bands bracket the market with an upper band at $2.17, a middle band near $1.93 and a lower band at $1.70. XRP-USD has been rejected near $2.17–$2.19 several times and keeps finding support around the $2.03–$2.10 region, confirming that liquidity is concentrated around the 50-day and the upper band.

Trend And Momentum On XRP-USD: RSI, ADX, MACD, Stochastics, Connors

Momentum is firm but no longer one-way. The RSI at 66.74 shows elevated strength but not a blow-off; it hasn’t crossed the overbought 70 line. The ADX at 34.92 confirms a strong directional trend, meaning price swings have signal, not noise. At the same time, MACD has turned cautious, with the line near –0.08 and the histogram around 0.05, a structure that points to weakening upside momentum after the early-January run. Stochastic readings with %K around 76.34 and %D near 54.80 tell the same story: momentum is still constructive but no longer stretched, which is classic transition from surge to consolidation. On shorter horizons, Connors RSI has started to curl higher from depressed levels, signalling that the last leg down relieved enough pressure for dip-buyers to re-engage, even if the broader RSI hasn’t reset fully.

Volume, Liquidity And Participation In XRP-USD

Headline volume is solid but not euphoric. One key data point shows 4.30 billion XRP changing hands against an average of 4.02 billion, while another snapshot gives relative volume at 0.77, meaning trading is below typical intensity across some venues as traders wait for the next catalyst. In notional terms, volume around $2.5–$2.81 billion on a roughly $125 billion market cap indicates active but not frothy participation. The tape is busy enough to be meaningful, but not crowded enough to force a disorderly move without a new shock.

Whales, Exchange Supply And ETF Flows Behind XRP-USD

Whale behaviour has flipped from aggressive supply to quiet accumulation pressure. Whale Transfer Flow to Binance has dropped to roughly 48 million XRP before only partially rebounding to about 56.1 million, the lowest levels since 2021. When large wallets stop feeding exchanges, sell-side liquidity thins. At the same time, exchange balances have shrunk from over 4 billion XRP at the end of 2025 to under 2 billion now, a reduction greater than 50%. That makes each incremental bid more powerful. On top of that, spot XRP ETFs have pulled in about $1.26 billion in cumulative net inflows with no outflow days recorded, signalling persistent institutional demand. The combination of low whale deposits, halved exchange supply and one-way ETF inflows builds a structurally bullish backdrop even while short-term traders are selling strength.

Short-Term Tape For XRP-USD: Who Sold, Who Bought, And Where

The intraday order book shows how the last pullback unfolded. As XRP-USD pushed into $2.13, the market treated that zone as a liquidity pocket for profit-taking. During the US session, at about 15:00, volume spiked to roughly 102.7 million tokens, roughly 133.5% above the 24-hour average, precisely as price was rejected near $2.131. That rejection produced a classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows, putting bears in control for the rest of the session. Into the evening, around 19:31, another burst of about 3.7 million XRP in a single minute drove the price down to roughly $2.059. That print looked like a mini-capitulation: forced or emotional sellers handing tokens to waiting bids. Buyers stepped in immediately, dragging XRP-USD back toward $2.07–$2.10 by the close. Net effect: short-term money is selling into $2.13–$2.19, while structurally patient buyers defend $2.06–$2.01 and are prepared to get more aggressive around $2.00.

Key Supports And Floors For XRP-USD: $2.10, $2.01, $1.90, $1.70, $1.53

Support is layered and clearly defined. Immediate support sits around $2.10, the lower end of the recent tight range and a level cited repeatedly as a first defence line. The $2.05–$2.06 band has already attracted buyers multiple times during the latest pullback. Below that, several frameworks focus on $2.01: one forecast calls this out explicitly as a critical support test, and the zone $2.01–$2.09 is treated as a pivot band. A clean break below $2.01 starts to expose the $1.90 area, near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the $1.77 → $2.41 impulse, where many swing traders will look for a bigger reaction. Further down, the $1.8193–$1.7713 November–December lows form the next structural floor, followed by the April low at $1.6153 if the market experiences a deeper reset. Technically, the lower Bollinger Band at $1.70 and the monthly forecast target at $1.69 line up as a major confluence support, with the $1.53 52-week low as the extreme backstop if macro or regulation triggers a sharp washout.

Ceilings And Breakout Triggers For XRP-USD: $2.13, $2.17, $2.19, $2.26, $2.41

On the upside, the first visible ceiling is $2.13–$2.15, exactly where recent profit-taking has emerged. Just above, $2.17 is doing double duty as both the upper Bollinger Band and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement referenced in multiple analyses; price has failed there more than once. A decisive daily close above $2.1905 – this week’s high – would be the first technical confirmation that sellers at this line are being overrun. If that break comes with volume, the next upside box opens toward $2.26–$2.28, where the golden retracement around $2.26 and the 1.236 extension near $2.28 cluster. A sustained push through those levels would put the early-January peak at $2.4159 back on the radar. Above $2.4159, the 200-day moving average at $2.57 becomes the medium-term magnet, and beyond that the conversation shifts back toward the $3+ region and the $3.65 52-week high.

Wave Structure And Pattern Work For XRP-USD: B Wave, C Wave, And Wave 3 Risk

From an Elliott-style perspective, XRP-USD looks like it is finishing a corrective B wave and preparing for a potential C-wave advance. One mapped scenario has the B wave retracing to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at about $2.09, which lines up neatly with the $2.01–$2.09 support band. If that structure holds, the next leg higher – the C wave – can target the golden zone around $2.26, with a possible overshoot to $2.28, where the 1.236 extension sits. That C wave is expected to unfold in five bullish subwaves, offering a rhythm of higher highs and higher lows rather than a single straight-line spike. The risk case inside the same framework is simple: failure around $2.26–$2.28 and a loss of support later would suggest the start of a Wave 3 down, with potential downside into the $1.65 region. That $1.65 handle sits just above the April low at $1.6153, which would be the last defence before the entire structure is questioned.

Forecast Cone For XRP-USD: 1-Month, 3-Month, 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year

Model-based projections describe a wide, asymmetric cone of outcomes. On a 1-month horizon, one forecast targets $1.69, roughly 21% below the $2.14 area and almost exactly at the Bollinger lower band and psychological support. On a 3-month view, the target slips to $1.66, a 22.4% drawdown from current levels and consistent with a deeper, time-consuming consolidation. Over 12 months, the model shifts bullish with a $4.33 target, implying about 102.4% upside versus $2.14, effectively a doubling if the next major leg higher materializes. Over the longer curve, 3-year projections near $7.09 and 5-year numbers around $9.84 represent extended recovery paths in which ETF flows, regulatory clarity and infrastructure adoption continue to compound. The key takeaway is that the near-term risk is skewed to the downside, but the long-term skew remains heavily to the upside, provided the structural story does not break.

Regulation, Policy And Macro Drivers Around XRP-USD

The regulatory backdrop is split between US uncertainty and EU progress. In the US, the Senate Banking Committee has postponed its markup session on a key digital-asset market-structure bill. That markup is where wording on trading, custody, stablecoin rewards and DeFi would be finalized. The delay, combined with high-profile pushback from major exchanges that prefer no bill over a restrictive bill, extends the uncertainty cloud hanging over US-listed crypto assets, including XRP-USD. In Europe, the story is cleaner. Ripple has secured preliminary approval for an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license from Luxembourg’s CSSF, and is working toward a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license under MiCA. That would allow Ripple to scale regulated Ripple Payments across the EU, using XRP as a bridge asset for cross-border settlement under clear rules. There is also discussion of non-ancillary treatment for XRP, aligning it with Bitcoin and Ethereum in regulatory terms. Macro-wise, strong US data have kept the dollar firm and pushed traders to scale back expectations of early Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring speculative risk assets. With Bitcoin holding around $94,000–$95,000 but also feeling the weight of tighter financial conditions, XRP-USD trades inside a risk environment that is supportive long term but cautious in the short run.

Sentiment, Market Structure And Liquidations In XRP-USD

Sentiment is balanced rather than euphoric. One feed shows 4.30 billion units traded daily versus 4.02 billion average, another highlights relative volume at 0.77, and aggregate crypto-market capitalization has slipped about 1.09% in the last 24 hours to roughly $3.23 trillion. Liquidation data point to leveraged longs being forced out near $2.19, precisely where resistance clusters, while support liquidations near $2.10 remain limited, suggesting that institutional players are quietly defending that zone. Across the last 30 days, XRP is still positive – one series notes a 7% monthly gain and a 10.7% rise over 14 days – but the last week shows about 2.65–2.7% slippage. That fits with a market that is absorbing profits rather than abandoning the asset.

ETF Optimism, EU Licenses And Infrastructure As Medium-Term Tailwinds For XRP-USD

Beyond the day-to-day tape, the medium-term case rests on tangible pillars. Spot XRP ETFs have drawn roughly $1.26 billion in cumulative net inflows without a single recorded outflow day, underlining consistent institutional buying. Exchange balances falling from above 4 billion XRP to below 2 billion compress available float. Ripple’s regulatory progress in Europe – the Luxembourg EMI nod and the MiCA CASP pursuit – plus ongoing expansion of payment corridors and settlement rails, gives XRP a clear utility narrative distinct from meme-driven altcoins. When combined with potential non-ancillary status and further licensing, that infrastructure story is exactly what quantitative and discretionary investors need to justify exposure beyond pure speculation.

Buy, Sell Or Hold For XRP-USD Right Now?

Stack the numbers: spot oscillating between $2.04 and $2.14, daily drops of 1–3.4%, market cap around $125 billion, YTD gain of 10.11%, RSI at 66.74, ADX at 34.92, MACD turning softer, Stochastics elevated, whale transfers to Binance at 48–56.1 million XRP, exchange supply cut from >4 billion to <2 billion, ETF net inflows of $1.26 billion with no outflows, supports at $2.10, $2.05–$2.06, $2.01, $1.90, $1.8193–$1.7713, $1.69–$1.70, $1.6153 and $1.53, resistances at $2.13–$2.15, $2.17, $2.1905, $2.26–$2.28, $2.4159 and $2.57, and a forecast cone from $1.66 on the downside to $4.33, $7.09 and $9.84 over 1–5 years. The picture is clear. Short term, while XRP-USD trades below $2.1905 and struggles to reclaim $2.17–$2.19, the bias is neutral to mildly bearish, with real risk of retesting $2.01–$1.90 if macro or regulation deliver another shock. Medium to long term, the shrinking supply on exchanges, historic low whale selling, one-way ETF inflows, Luxembourg EMI progress and MiCA CASP ambitions argue that the structural trend remains bullish. On that basis, for a patient investor with a multi-year horizon and the ability to absorb volatility, XRP-USD is a speculative BUY, ideally accumulated on dips into the $2.01–$1.90 band rather than chased into $2.26–$2.41. For short-term traders, the market is a range trade until $2.1905 and then $2.4159 break decisively, at which point momentum strategies can lean long with tighter tactical stops.

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