Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Up 1.36%, S&P 500, Dow Recover as Oil Pulls Back and BTC Explodes to $71K

Stock Market Today — March 4, 2026: Nasdaq Charges 1.36% Higher as Iran War Enters Day Five, Oil Breaks Its Streak, Bitcoin Reclaims $70K, and Earnings Season Delivers Sharp Splits

Three sessions into one of the most geopolitically charged weeks for global markets since Russia crossed into Ukraine in 2022, Wall Street finally found enough oxygen to breathe Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMP) surged 1.36% to 22,823 — the strongest single-session performance among the three major averages — while the S&P 500 ($SPX) gained 0.83% to 6,873. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) added 308 points, or 0.64%, to finish near 48,809. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.07% to 2,636, and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index advanced 0.59% to 159.90. This was not a narrow rescue job — broad participation confirmed that Wednesday's move carried real weight.

The VIX — the market's real-time fear gauge — collapsed 10.39% to 21.12. That number still reflects elevated caution, but the direction is everything: panic is retreating, even if it hasn't disappeared. The Dollar Index slipped 0.29% to 95.57. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.082%, up from 4.056% Tuesday — bonds continue to sell off as war-driven inflation expectations keep pressure on the long end of the curve, and that dynamic isn't going away anytime soon.

How Tuesday's Near-Catastrophe Set Up Wednesday's Relief Rally

Context is everything here. On Tuesday, the Dow came within minutes of its worst session since last April's tariff shock — at one point shedding nearly 1,300 points intraday before closing down just 400. The whipsaw was violent and disorienting. Wednesday's recovery didn't erase that memory; it simply gave the market room to reassess. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid captured it precisely: markets are trading hour-by-hour on headlines, with sentiment flipping on each new development out of the Middle East. There is zero visible de-escalation from either side. What changed Wednesday was a tactical intervention — not a resolution — and that distinction matters for how long this bounce can hold.

Bessent's Gulf Insurance Pledge Puts a Floor Under Oil — For Now

The single most important market catalyst of Wednesday morning came not from any earnings report but from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking on CNBC. The administration is assembling a package of measures — risk insurance for oil tankers and possible U.S. Navy escort through the Strait of Hormuz — to restore the flow of crude through the world's most critical energy chokepoint. President Trump had already signaled Tuesday that the U.S. would underwrite maritime trade through the Gulf. That combination was enough to snap a two-session oil rally that had already sent WTI up 11% and Brent up 12%.

WTI crude ($CL) fell 0.36% to $74.29 on Wednesday. Brent ($BRN) dropped 0.49% to $81.00. If both benchmarks close lower, it marks their first losing session since the conflict erupted over the weekend. Thousands of tankers remain anchored outside the Strait — not because they can't move, but because maritime insurers have cancelled Gulf coverage entirely, leaving ships exposed in an active combat zone. The administration's pledge to fill that gap is precisely the catalyst oil traders needed to stop bidding panic premium into every barrel.

Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 Brent forecast by $10 to $76 a barrel Wednesday, up from a prior estimate of $66. That's the baseline scenario — five more days of Hormuz exports running at roughly 15% of normal volumes, followed by a month-long gradual normalization. But Goldman's tail risk scenario deserves full attention: five additional weeks at current disruption levels sends Brent straight to $100. That is not the base case, but it is not a remote tail either. The last time Brent traded at triple digits was March 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Bessent also confirmed Wednesday that Trump's 15% global tariff — announced late last month — will be implemented this week. Those levies are structured to last 150 days while U.S. agencies build the framework for permanent duties. Bessent added that he expects effective U.S. tariff rates to revert to pre-Supreme Court levels within five months, a comment that partially softened the tariff headline's sting in real time.

QatarEnergy's Force Majeure — The Most Underpriced Risk of the Week

The energy story extends well beyond crude. QatarEnergy, the world's largest LNG producer, declared force majeure Wednesday — a formal legal mechanism releasing it from contractual supply obligations — two days after an Iranian drone strike forced a complete shutdown of its LNG output. Force majeure is not a temporary operational pause. It is a deliberate signal from Qatar's leadership that there is no near-term timeline for restarting gas facilities. European and Asian natural gas prices have surged sharply in response, and the full downstream consequences have barely begun to register in equity markets.

Energy-intensive manufacturing across Germany, Japan, and South Korea now faces a structural cost shock with no quick resolution. Qatar supplies a significant share of Europe's LNG import capacity. This is a multi-week disruption at minimum, and it sits as the single most underappreciated risk for international equity exposure right now.

South Korea Implodes, Dubai Reopens to Carnage — U.S. Stocks at Widest Outperformance Margin Since 2008

The divergence between American equities and the rest of the world hit a level not recorded since 2008. Bespoke Investment Group noted that the two-day outperformance spread between SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) and CWI (the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. ETF) reached its widest reading in nearly two decades. This isn't American exceptionalism in the traditional sense — it's that U.S. markets haven't fallen as fast as their international counterparts. As a net energy exporter, the U.S. carries structural insulation from supply disruptions that Asia and Europe simply don't have.

South Korea's Kospi plunged over 12% Wednesday — a record single-session collapse — triggering a circuit breaker halt on the Korea Exchange. The Kosdaq fell approximately 13%. Samsung Electronics ($005930.KS) dropped 7%, and SK Hynix ($000660.KS) fell 5%. The Kospi had surged more than 75% in 2025 on the back of explosive memory chip demand — that entire rally is now being pressure-tested against an energy shock that Seoul has no domestic buffer for.

Dubai's benchmark equity index reopened from a two-day trading halt and fell 4.9% immediately — on pace for its worst session since May 2022. Abu Dhabi's main index declined more than 3%, its sharpest intraday drop since August. The Nasdaq UAE 20 fell 4.3%. European markets staged a partial recovery alongside Wall Street but remain under meaningful pressure from the LNG supply shock and broader geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin ($BTC) Clears $70,000 — Crypto Stocks Surge Across the Board

Bitcoin ($BTC) crossed $70,000 Wednesday for the first time since mid-February, trading near $71,600 intraday — a clean 5% jump from Tuesday's close around $68,000, and a complete reversal from the weekend low near $66,300. By late morning, some platforms were printing $73,419, representing 7.6% gains on the session. The move reignited a genuine debate about whether Bitcoin is functioning as a geopolitical safe haven or simply riding the broader risk-on recovery. Either way, the numbers are real.

Coinbase ($COIN) jumped approximately 7%. Strategy ($MSTR) added 7%. MARA Holdings ($MARA) gained 6% and Riot Platforms ($RIOT) rose 4%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded major inflows across the past several sessions. For perspective: Bitcoin remains more than 40% below its all-time high of approximately $126,000 set last October — this is a meaningful bounce, not a new bull cycle. But momentum is clearly shifting back toward risk.

Gold settled at $5,158.80 an ounce, up 0.69%, after briefly reclaiming $5,200 intraday. Silver ($SI) gained nearly 1% to $84.28. Both metals continue to benefit from safe-haven flows, though gold's Tuesday pullback — which came on the heels of a massive Monday surge — showed that even the most reliable crisis trade isn't immune to profit-taking.

The Magnificent Seven Splits Into Two Tiers — $TSLA and $AMZN Lead, $AAPL and $MSFT Lag

The Magnificent Seven CNBC index gained 1.55% to 400.41 Wednesday, but the internal composition of that move tells a more nuanced story. Tesla ($TSLA) surged more than 3% and Amazon ($AMZN) climbed 3.59% to $216.23 — both leading the recovery. Meta Platforms ($META) added 2.59% to $672.06. Nvidia ($NVDA) gained more than 1%. Then the tier break: Apple ($AAPL) and Microsoft ($MSFT) each moved just 0.2% — essentially flat. That divergence reflects differential exposure to the crisis; Amazon's cloud and commerce dominance, Tesla's autonomous vehicle narrative, and Meta's advertising resilience are all more insulated from energy price shocks than the hardware-adjacent businesses of Apple and Microsoft.

Beyond the Mag Seven, Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) climbed 3.47% to $197.57, Micron Technology ($MU) surged 6.83% to $405.61 — one of the strongest individual performers of the session — and Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) gained 4.60% to $32.09. The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector index rose 1.38%, while the Consumer Discretionary Sector added 2.00%.

Bank of America Upgrades Tesla ($TSLA) to Buy — The Robotaxi Thesis Takes Center Stage

Bank of America's upgrade of Tesla ($TSLA) from Hold to Buy was Wednesday's most consequential analyst call. The coverage resumption carries a $460 price target — implying 17% upside from current levels on a stock that is already down 13% year-to-date. Analyst Alexander Perry's thesis is not about electric vehicles. It is entirely built around autonomous driving and robotaxi services as the defining growth engine of what he frames as "Auto 2.0."

Perry's core argument: Tesla can scale robotaxi operations more profitably than any competitor, and the economics of autonomous mobility — time savings, improved safety, broader transportation access — represent a structural shift in how mobility is priced and consumed. The Optimus humanoid robot segment gets a secondary mention as an additional long-term growth vector. The robotaxi thesis is not new, but coming at a moment when the stock is beaten down and market sentiment is dominated by geopolitical noise, this upgrade is well-timed. $TSLA is a Buy.

Moderna ($MRNA) Pays $2.25 Billion to Settle Patent Dispute — And the Market Celebrates

Moderna ($MRNA) gained between 6% and 11% Wednesday after announcing it will pay up to $2.25 billion to Biopharma Corporation and Genevant Sciences GmbH to settle litigation over mRNA technology used in its Covid-19 vaccine. On the surface, writing a $2.25 billion check is painful. In context, it's the best possible outcome.

A trial was scheduled to begin next week. An adverse verdict carried uncapped liability and could have forced ongoing royalty payments on Moderna's entire mRNA franchise. The settlement eliminates that tail risk permanently. Analysts were unambiguous: this is a win. The litigation overhang had been a persistent drag on the stock, and its removal allows the market to reprice Moderna on fundamentals rather than legal exposure. $MRNA is a Buy on this news — the discount for legal risk comes off the stock immediately.

Ross Stores ($ROST) Delivers a Clean Beat — Off-Price Retail Is Built for This Macro Environment

Ross Stores ($ROST) was the most straightforward fundamental winner of Wednesday's session, rallying 7% after Q4 results that beat on every metric that matters. EPS came in at $2.00 against a $1.90 consensus — a clean 5.3% beat. Revenue reached $6.64 billion versus the $6.42 billion expected, representing 12.2% year-over-year growth. The company also authorized a 10% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, lifting it to approximately $0.45 per share.

Off-price retail is structurally positioned to benefit from the exact macro environment now unfolding. When tariffs raise consumer goods prices, when energy costs climb, and when consumer confidence weakens, shoppers trade down — and that trade down flows directly to Ross. With a 15% global tariff set to hit this week and energy-driven inflation risks building, Ross's business model is better positioned today than it was six months ago. $ROST is a Buy.

CrowdStrike ($CRWD) Posts a Solid Quarter but Fails to Excite — The Premium Valuation Demands More

CrowdStrike ($CRWD) delivered a Q4 that beat on both top and bottom lines, and full-year guidance of $4.78-$4.90 adjusted EPS roughly bracketed the $4.80 consensus. But Q1 guidance of $1.06-$1.07 EPS on $1.36-$1.364 billion in revenue was only barely above the $1.35 billion revenue consensus — not the kind of margin that drives a premium cybersecurity multiple higher. The stock was volatile, swinging between gains and losses in the pre- and post-market.

CrowdStrike's narrative — that increasingly sophisticated AI-driven cyber threats are expanding its total addressable market and driving platform consolidation — is structurally sound. Clients are telling management exactly that. But at this valuation, clean beats are table stakes; guidance that merely clears the bar by inches is treated as a disappointment. $CRWD is a Hold until Q1 results provide a definitive answer on whether the guidance conservatism was management sandbagging or a genuine deceleration signal.

GitLab ($GTLB) Gets Crushed on Weak Guidance — AI Competition Is Real and It's Accelerating

GitLab ($GTLB) dropped 8-10% Wednesday and the sell-off is fully justified. Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $1.099-$1.118 billion missed the $1.12 billion consensus — the midpoint falls short. Adjusted EPS guidance of $0.76-$0.80 was nowhere near the $1.05 consensus estimate. Q4 results actually beat on both lines, which makes the forward guidance miss more alarming, not less. A company that can beat the past but can't maintain its future growth trajectory is telling the market something important: the competitive environment is deteriorating faster than the bull case assumed.

The threat is AI-powered developer tools commoditizing the core workflow products that GitLab has built its business on. GitHub Copilot, Cursor, and a rapidly expanding cohort of AI coding assistants are rewriting what developers expect from their toolchain — and GitLab's guidance implies it's feeling that pressure directly. $GTLB is a Sell until there's concrete evidence of a re-acceleration, and that evidence is not visible in Wednesday's numbers.

Box ($BOX) Delivers the Contrarian Software Beat — Retention Is Turning

Box ($BOX) jumped more than 6% Wednesday and it deserves more attention than it's getting. Q4 EPS came in at $0.49 adjusted versus a $0.34 consensus estimate — a 44% beat on the bottom line. Revenue of $305.9 million cleared the $304.3 million estimate. More importantly, Box issued above-consensus guidance for both the current quarter and the full fiscal year, and CFO Dylan Smith specifically called out a meaningful improvement in net retention rate — the single most critical metric for a SaaS business trying to prove it's not being disrupted.

Box is down 20% year-to-date as AI disruption fears hammered the entire enterprise software sector. That setup — depressed multiple, improving retention, guidance beat, and a product strategy centered on AI-enhanced Intelligent Content Management — is exactly the kind of contrarian setup that generates outsized returns when sentiment eventually catches up to fundamentals. $BOX is a Buy.

Broadcom ($AVGO) Reports After the Bell — The AI Revenue Test That Sets the Tone for Chip Stocks

All eyes shift to Broadcom ($AVGO) after Wednesday's close. The consensus calls for adjusted EPS of $2.02 on revenue of $19.21 billion — a 29% year-over-year top-line increase that would constitute a record quarterly result for the company. The stock has shed nearly 25% from its December peak as the market questioned AI chip demand sustainability, rising memory costs, and competitive dynamics. Wall Street's mean price target sits near $454 versus a trading price around $317 — enormous implied upside if the numbers deliver and guidance holds.

The custom ASIC business serving hyperscaler AI infrastructure is the number to watch. If Broadcom confirms that its AI chip revenue is tracking the bull case and maintains or raises guidance on that segment, it has the potential to be a positive read-through for the entire semiconductor sector. $AVGO is a Buy heading into results — the risk/reward at a 25% discount to peak with AI revenue intact is asymmetric to the upside.

ISM Services at 56.1 and ADP at 63,000 — The Economy Refuses to Roll Over

Two macro prints landed Wednesday morning and both cleared expectations in ways that matter. The ISM Services PMI jumped to 56.1 in February, up from 53.8 in January, surpassing the 53.5 consensus. That reading — the highest since July 2022 — confirms that the U.S. service economy is accelerating at precisely the moment geopolitical stress is building. Critically, the prices subindex fell 3.6 points to 63, providing a counterweight to the alarming ISM Manufacturing prices surge of 11.5 points to 70.5 seen earlier in the week. Goods inflation is running hotter; services inflation is cooling. That split is central to the Fed's calculus.

ADP private payrolls added 63,000 jobs in February, beating the 48,000 consensus. January was revised sharply lower to 11,000 from prior estimates, which muddies the trend — but the February headline is constructive. The Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge was already running at 2.9% headline and 3.0% core in December. Goldman Sachs projects that the oil shock pushes headline CPI to 2.7% by May in a baseline scenario and 3.0% in a prolonged disruption case. CME FedWatch now puts July rate cut odds at just 42.8% — essentially a coin flip — as the market weighs a resilient labor market against oil-driven inflation risk that could keep the Fed sidelined longer than anyone expected three weeks ago.

Treasury Yields Keep Climbing — War Bonds in a Tariff-Ridden World

The 10-year Treasury yield's persistent climb to 4.082% — even on a day when oil prices retreated — reveals something important about current bond market dynamics. This isn't a clean energy shock story driving yields. There are at least three separate forces pressuring the long end simultaneously: the energy and inflation shock from the Middle East conflict, the tariff-driven pricing pressures from a 15% global levy set to take effect this week, and the fundamental question of whether the U.S. fiscal position can absorb another extended military engagement. The 2-year yield settled at 3.529%, keeping the yield curve in mild inversion territory. That configuration — short rates elevated, long rates climbing — reflects a market that doesn't trust the inflation path and isn't willing to commit to a soft landing narrative until the conflict resolution timeline becomes clearer.

Wall Street's Strategic Read: UBS at 7,700, Citi Acknowledges Risk, Goldman Adjusts

UBS Global Wealth Management held its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target at 7,700 Wednesday — representing 11% upside from Monday's close of 6,881. The firm's base case assumes minimal sustained energy supply disruption and leans heavily on Trump's tanker protection comments as a ceiling on the oil shock. That's a reasonable framework, but it assumes no further escalation — and Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid made clear Wednesday morning that there is zero evidence of de-escalation from either party in the conflict.

Citi strategist Scott Chronert maintained his 2026 outlook but was direct about near-term risk acknowledgment — the first time Citi has flagged short-term downside within its year-end bull case. Chronert specifically called out the intersection of AI-driven white-collar job displacement and energy-driven economic headwinds as the scenario that would force a fundamental reassessment. The logic: if energy inflation squeezes margins and AI simultaneously compresses employment in high-productivity sectors, the soft landing assumption breaks down. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, now projects headline CPI reaching 2.7% in a baseline and 3.0% in an extended disruption scenario — both above the Fed's 2% target.

Edward Jones senior economist James McCann offered the most constructive framing: if energy prices stabilize and begin to moderate over the coming days and weeks, longer-term opportunities are beginning to emerge in markets that have been indiscriminately sold. That view requires patience and a tolerance for continued headline volatility. It is also, at current valuations, probably correct — provided the Hormuz disruption doesn't compound into something structurally larger.

The picture Wednesday is this: U.S. equities are outperforming the world by the widest margin in almost two decades, a handful of earnings stories are delivering genuine fundamental upside, the service economy is expanding at its fastest pace since mid-2022, and the geopolitical situation remains entirely unresolved with Goldman's $100 oil scenario sitting uncomfortably within reach. That is the full complexity of where markets stand right now — and navigating it requires separating the companies and sectors that benefit structurally from this environment from those that are simply being carried along by a relief bounce that could reverse on the next headline.

That's TradingNEWS