XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Steadies at $2.20 as XRP ETF Demand Surges and Exchange Supply Tightens

XRP Price Forecast - (XRP-USD) Rebounds to $2.20 as ETF Inflows Surge and Exchange Supply Shrinks

Ripple’s native token XRP (XRP-USD) is trading near $2.20, recovering from a brief drop to $1.80 earlier this week. Despite market hesitation, the coin has maintained stability above key psychological support levels. The rebound comes as ETF inflows and institutional accumulation intensify, tightening available supply and amplifying short-term volatility. XRP’s market capitalization now hovers around $130 billion, keeping it the fourth-largest crypto asset by market value.

Record ETF Inflows Redefine Institutional Demand for XRP

Newly launched spot XRP ETFs have absorbed over $600–$644 million in cumulative inflows across November. Grayscale and Franklin Templeton led the surge, capturing $67.4 million and $62.6 million, respectively, while Bitwise’s XRP ETF added another $57 million. On opening day alone, Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF registered $58 million in trading volume — the highest debut among all 2025 ETF launches. Institutional inflows outpaced Bitcoin’s $151 million outflow and Ethereum’s $97 million inflow, signaling a clear rotation into Ripple-linked assets. The ETF wave has positioned XRP as the top-gaining altcoin in institutional allocations, reinforcing long-term adoption under a regulated framework.

Thailand’s 0% Crypto Capital Gains Tax Amplifies XRP Momentum

A decisive policy move by Thailand to impose 0% capital gains tax on crypto profits traded through SEC-licensed exchanges has accelerated regional investment into XRP ETFs. The tax exemption applies to major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, but it disproportionately benefits XRP given its fast adoption among local institutional desks. This regulatory pivot strengthens Southeast Asia’s role in global digital-asset flows, giving XRP an edge in cross-border liquidity and ETF participation. Thailand’s policy is expected to lift after-tax returns and enhance market depth, fueling further XRP accumulation by funds seeking exposure through compliant channels.

Technical Picture Points to $2.40 Resistance and $3.00 Target Zone

Technically, XRP has carved a clear bullish structure after bouncing from $1.80 support — a demand zone that triggered sharp reversals in prior cycles. Momentum indicators, including the RSI now above 80, suggest sustained strength without immediate exhaustion. The $2.30–$2.40 range remains the key breakout zone. A daily close above $2.40 could unlock targets at $2.57, $2.75, and $3.12, coinciding with prior resistance pivots. Failure to hold $2.20–$2.00 may invite a retest of $1.80, but structural support remains firm. Historical RSI patterns show that elevated readings during ETF inflow spikes often precede multi-week rallies, implying another leg higher if liquidity persists.

Exchange Supply Collapse Creates Structural Bullish Pressure

Recent on-chain data reveals a drop of 430 million XRP from exchange reserves in just eight days, a magnitude unseen since 2021. Binance’s holdings fell to roughly 2.7 billion XRP, reflecting long-term accumulation and a supply crunch driven by ETF custodians and whale addresses. Institutional wallets have absorbed approximately $560 million XRP within the past week, with daily transfer volumes exceeding 80 million tokens on certain sessions. This supply squeeze mirrors the pre-2021 bull run pattern — when falling exchange balances preceded a 200% rally. The shrinking float underscores why XRP’s price remains steady despite profit-taking by short-term traders.

Market Valuation Reality Limits $100 Projections

Some retail segments have circulated extreme price targets, projecting XRP at $100 by year-end. Such estimates disregard arithmetic reality. With a circulating supply of ≈ 60.3 billion tokens, a $100 price would imply a $6 trillion market cap, double the entire global crypto market. Analysts like Zach Humphries label these forecasts “delusional,” noting that sustainable growth must align with liquidity cycles, not speculative hype. Even optimistic long-term projections cap near $5 by Christmas, provided ETF momentum sustains and macro sentiment improves. Institutional analysts argue that utility and adoption, not ETF speculation alone, will determine whether XRP ever surpasses $10–$15 in the next cycle.

Macro Environment and Fed Outlook Support Crypto Rotation

Macro conditions continue to favor risk rotation into digital assets. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 85–87% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December, with multiple Fed officials signaling “substantial easing” in early 2026. The dovish outlook weakens the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — now near 99.7, down almost 4% month-to-date — enhancing the relative appeal of assets like XRP-USD. Liquidity flows are tilting toward ETFs and high-velocity settlement tokens, aligning perfectly with Ripple’s utility profile.

Institutional vs. Retail Dynamics and Whale Accumulation

Whales have significantly increased positioning, with over 190 million XRP redistributed to top-tier institutional wallets. Despite occasional profit-taking, net accumulation remains positive across the 10-million-plus cohort. On-chain tracking from CryptoQuant and Santiment highlights large address growth up 6.3% month-over-month. ETF custodians themselves — particularly Grayscale and Franklin Templeton — continue steady inflows of 16–80 million XRP daily, keeping liquidity tight. This behavior points to an evolving ownership structure where long-term hands dominate supply, reducing sell pressure and laying groundwork for higher equilibrium pricing.

Broader Adoption and Ripple Ecosystem Expansion

Ripple’s enterprise solutions continue scaling global corridors. Banks across Europe, Latin America, and Asia are deepening integration of RippleNet and On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) frameworks. Real-world settlement utility — the backbone of Ripple’s model — positions XRP as a unique cross-border liquidity token, unlike speculative competitors. Recent partnerships in Singapore, Japan, and the UAE reinforce Ripple’s transition into mainstream financial infrastructure. As regulatory clarity improves following Ripple’s legal victories, the token’s risk premium continues to compress, supporting institutional confidence in longer-term adoption.

Comparative Performance and Market Rotation

Over the past year, XRP has outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum, gaining 50% YTD, even while down 40% from its July peak of $3.65. In November alone, XRP rose 17%, compared with Bitcoin’s –0.3% and Ethereum’s flat performance near $3,030. ETF inflows totaling $644 million underscore this divergence — XRP is attracting regulated capital while top-tier crypto ETFs witness outflows (BTC –$3.5 billion, ETH –$1.5 billion). The rotation reflects investor preference for assets combining real-world use and liquidity, traits unique to XRP within the large-cap universe.

TradingNews.com Verdict

XRP stands at a decisive inflection point. Institutional demand, ETF inflows, and vanishing exchange supply have established structural bullish conditions, while macro tailwinds strengthen the setup. Key resistance lies at $2.40, and a breakout could extend to $2.75–$3.12. Any loss of $2.00 support would delay, not invalidate, the uptrend. Given tightening supply, expanding ETF adoption, and Ripple’s strengthening utility narrative, XRP (XRP-USD) remains a BUY, with near-term targets of $2.75–$3.00 and medium-term fair value near $5.00, contingent on sustained institutional accumulation.

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