XRP (XRP-USD) Stuck at $2.13—Explosive Breakout or Breakdown Next?
Ripple’s 200-day squeeze near $2.00 has traders on edge. Will ETF buzz and SEC clarity drive XRP to $3—or will the $1.33 trapdoor open? | That's TradingNEWS
XRP-USD Holds $2.13 But Fractal Pressure Builds: Will the 200-Day Standoff Break?
XRP-USD is clinging to the $2.13 level after shedding over 9% from its recent $2.34 peak, while technical compression nears a decision point. The token has spent more than 200 consecutive days in a constricted $1.90–$2.90 channel, signaling a multi-month buildup that traders increasingly view as a powder keg. Ripple’s legal maneuvering and regulatory headlines are adding fire to the wick.
The price action remains locked between the 4-hour 200 EMA at $2.23 and a soft floor at $2.00, with the RSI trending toward oversold and momentum sliding below the $2.19–$2.21 moving average cluster. If $2.00 gives way, XRP risks revisiting its April low near $1.62. But if it rebounds and cracks $2.34, a measured move to $2.65 and higher becomes realistic.
Six-Year Fractal Echo Suggests Long-Term XRP Target Near $10—Is It Fantasy or Forecast?
XRP's long-term structure is beginning to mimic its 2017 setup, when a nearly 1,300% explosion followed a prolonged period of stagnation. The current consolidation has extended over 2,470 days, surpassing the 1,267-day setup before the last mega rally to $3.40. If a similar breakout materializes, price targets range from $8 to $10.
Some bullish models stretch even further. Valhil Capital’s Jimmy Vallee forecasts XRP could reach $10,000 as a global liquidity bridge—but only through institutional recalibration over 5–10 years. That forecast assumes XRP replaces major global settlement rails, including SWIFT. Whether that’s realistic or speculative, it’s evidence of mounting institutional narrative pressure.
Will the XRP ETF Be the Trigger? SEC's Tone Shift and Brazil Launch Spark Hopes
Legal friction remains pivotal to XRP’s price trajectory. Ripple recently filed a supplemental letter backing a $50 million settlement with the SEC, significantly below the initial $2 billion penalty demand. The SEC itself is signaling a "fundamental reassessment" of its digital asset stance, having already dropped charges against firms like Coinbase and Binance.
The approval of a spot ETF remains a central bullish thesis. XRP already enjoys ETF exposure in Brazil, and analysts expect a U.S. approval to inject legitimacy and institutional capital. If confirmed, that could easily lift XRP above $3, with $2.40 and $2.60 as immediate resistance checkpoints.
New Stablecoin RLUSD Adds Utility Fuel: Will Payments Flow Push XRP Demand?
Ripple’s launch of Ripple USD (RLUSD) adds a crucial payments layer. Since its launch, RLUSD’s market cap ballooned from $50 million to $450 million, gaining listings on Kraken and Bybit. As Ripple embeds RLUSD into its cross-border systems, XRP’s utility as a bridge asset grows.
Further bolstering fundamentals, USDC is now transferable via RippleNet. Regulatory approval in Dubai and a new CME XRP futures launch point to accelerating adoption at institutional scale. Despite these tailwinds, the market has thus far ignored the macro shift.
Traders See Cup-and-Handle Threat—but Triangle Bullish Case Still Intact
Technical traders are split between breakout and breakdown. On the bullish side, XRP is printing a symmetrical triangle on its multi-week chart, a historically neutral-to-bullish pattern. If confirmed, price targets range from $3.70 to $4.00, with some calling for a potential “epic breakout.”
On the bearish side, a developing inverse cup-and-handle on the weekly chart suggests a downside move toward the $1.33 Fibonacci support, should $2.00 fail to hold.
Despite this tug-of-war, XRP remains the only top-5 altcoin in positive territory year-to-date, underscoring relative resilience.
Fed Pause Looms as Volatility Catalyst: Can XRP Dodge the Macro Shock?
While the SEC news has taken center stage, the Federal Reserve’s policy stance looms large. Consensus expects no change in rates, keeping the Fed Funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, but traders remain wary of Jerome Powell’s tone. Past pressers have triggered outsized crypto reactions—even during rate holds.
Should macro anxiety spike, XRP may test $2.00 or lower. But a dovish Fed could light the wick for a move above $2.34, especially if ETF optimism returns.
