XRP-USD at $3.04 as XRPI and XRPR ETFs Await SEC Approval With $5 Target in Play

XRP Price Stabilizes at $3.04 Ahead of ETF Decisions

Ripple’s XRP-USD is holding steady near $3.04, after recovering sharply from September’s lows of $2.65. The rebound has been underpinned by heavy whale inflows, with more than 370 million XRP accumulated in under a week, translating to over $1.1 billion at current valuations. This activity has established $2.80–$2.99 as a structural base, with traders now eyeing the SEC’s upcoming ETF deadline as the next major catalyst.

XRPI and XRPR ETFs Await SEC Ruling on October 18

Two XRP-linked exchange-traded funds — XRPI and XRPR — are now at the center of institutional attention. XRPR launched in September at $25.83 per share, attracting $37.7 million in first-day trading, the largest debut volume of 2025, before consolidating at $24.23. XRPI remains in filing status, alongside other issuers including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree. Under the SEC’s new fast-track framework, rulings are expected by October 18, 2025, with Bloomberg analysts assigning 99% approval odds. Market consensus is that simultaneous approvals could mirror Bitcoin’s ETF effect earlier this year, driving multi-billion inflows into XRP.

Institutional Adoption: VivoPower and SBI Push XRP Into Treasury Use

Ripple’s ecosystem continues to attract corporate and sovereign-linked capital. VivoPower (NASDAQ:VVPR) announced a $121 million capital raise to fund an XRP-centric treasury program, backed by His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki bin Talal Al Saud. Meanwhile, SBI Holdings in Japan has expanded institutional XRP lending, deepening liquidity in Asian markets and reinforcing XRP’s cross-border payments use case. These moves validate XRP as a corporate treasury and institutional-grade asset, further tightening its tradable float.

Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3.20, Path Toward $5.00

Momentum signals point higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 60, suggesting bullish conditions without being overbought. The MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, reinforcing positive momentum. Immediate resistance is clustered at $3.20 and $3.32, followed by the all-time high of $3.66. Analysts argue that an ETF-driven breakout above $3.32 could trigger a swift run toward $5.00, particularly if inflows mirror the scale seen in Bitcoin ETFs. Support remains firm at $2.80 and $2.65, cushioning downside risk if approvals are delayed.

Whale Accumulation and Trading Flows Around Key Levels

On-chain data shows whales transacted 212.6 million XRP in a single day on October 2, lifting prices from $3.00 to $3.06, followed by another 129 million XRP at $3.10, setting a ceiling. The aggregation of whale bids between $2.95–$3.05 highlights strong conviction buying ahead of the ETF decision. Analysts emphasize that this consolidation phase mirrors past accumulation patterns before parabolic breakouts, particularly in 2017 and 2020 cycles.

Macro and Political Risks: SEC Timelines and Shutdown Impact

Despite optimism, external risks remain. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has already delayed other ETF reviews, including Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF. Prolonged standoffs could push XRP ETF approvals beyond October. However, historically, shutdowns have coincided with rallies in risk assets due to expectations of dovish Federal Reserve policy. During the 2018–2019 shutdown, XRP jumped 28% in three days, suggesting macro turbulence does not necessarily derail momentum.

Verdict: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

At $3.04, with whales anchoring support at $2.80–$2.99, ETF approval odds at 99%, and institutional adoption from VivoPower and SBI strengthening fundamentals, the case for XRP remains robust. A confirmed SEC approval could unlock inflows sufficient to push XRP beyond $3.66 and toward $5.00 in the near term. While regulatory timing risk remains, the asymmetric setup favors the upside.

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) is a BUY, with short-term volatility tied to October’s SEC deadline but structural upside reinforced by institutional demand, whale positioning, and global liquidity expansion.

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