XRP-USD Bounces to $1.33 as 6.05B Token Exchange Deposits and Stalled ETFs Cap Rally Below $1.38

XRP (XRP-USD) traded at $1.33 in the U.S. morning on Tuesday, up 1.69% over 24 hours, after a session range of $1.29 to $1.34. The token spent the European morning pinned at $1.29 to $1.30 as Bitcoin slipped to $81,099 and Brent crude spiked to $111.75. The rebound came with the rest of crypto as U.S. stocks turned higher, with Bitcoin recovering to $83,042 and Ether to $2,436. At $1.33, XRP carries a market capitalization of $83.87 billion on a circulating supply of 63.13 billion tokens, ranking fifth among cryptocurrencies. Daily trading volume reached $1.29 billion to $1.42 billion across major venues.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. XRP is holding a floor near $1.29 at the same time as every source of new demand that carried it to $1.51 in September has dried up. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in just $10.25 million in October through October 16, against $121.4 million in September, and posted their first weekly outflow after 13 straight weeks of inflows. Exchange deposits hit a seven-month high of 6.05 billion XRP over 30 days. On November 1, Ripple’s escrow releases another 1 billion XRP. Supply is rising into a market where the marginal buyer has stepped back. Tuesday’s bounce does not change that arithmetic.

The longer view shows how far XRP has fallen. The all-time high of $3.661 was set on July 18, 2025. At $1.33, XRP trades 63.7% below that record. The token closed 2025 at $1.82. At $1.29 early Tuesday, XRP was down 29.55% for the year, the worst performer among the top five cryptocurrencies. At $1.33, the year-to-date loss narrows to 26.9%. Ether is down 17.9% for the year and Bitcoin 7%.

The past month shows the reversal. XRP averaged $1.49 in September and traded at $1.51 at its peak. On October 10, it stood at $1.40. By Tuesday morning it had fallen to $1.29, a decline of 7.9% from October 10 and 14.6% from the September peak. The weekly loss through Tuesday morning was 5.86%.

The structure of the decline is the important part. XRP has not crashed. It has slid steadily, with each rally sold and each support level tested. That pattern fits a market where supply exceeds demand by a small but persistent margin, rather than one where a single shock forced liquidations. The levels that matter are $1.29 and $1.27 on the downside, $1.34 and the weekly 200-period exponential moving average near $1.38 on the upside, and the $1.40 level from October 10 above that.

XRP ETFs Snapped a 13-Week Inflow Streak

The ETF channel was XRP’s strongest demand source this year, and it has gone quiet. U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.84 million in net outflows during the week ending October 16, breaking a streak of 13 consecutive weekly inflows that began in July. The outflow was small relative to assets, about 0.1% of the pool, but the change in direction is what matters.

The daily pattern shows how little buying is left. The funds recorded zero net flow on October 12 and 13. On October 14, they took in about $740,000, all into the Bitwise XRP ETF. On October 15, they posted a net outflow of around $105,000. On October 16, outflows rose to $2.47 million, entirely from the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC). Four of the last seven trading days recorded zero net flows.

The monthly comparison is stark. October inflows through October 16 total $10.25 million. September brought $121.4 million. October is running at less than a tenth of September’s pace. The week ended October 9 added $11.31 million, including an $8.17 million inflow into Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ on October 8, when XRP was the only one of the four major crypto ETF categories to take in money. Since then, the inflows have stopped.

Net assets have fallen faster than flows. U.S. spot XRP ETFs held $1.471 billion in net assets on October 16, equal to 1.79% of XRP’s market capitalization. That compares with a peak of $1.77 billion on September 25. The $299 million decline came mostly from the drop in XRP’s price rather than from redemptions.

Cumulative flows tell the story of investor losses. Since launch in November 2025, the funds have taken in $1.80 billion in net inflows. With net assets at $1.471 billion, ETF investors are collectively at a loss of about $330 million. The Canary fund has $484 million in cumulative net inflows on its own. Over the 30 sessions through October 16, the funds still show $118.3 million in net inflows, but nearly all of that came in September.

The fund filings confirm the trend. The Bitwise XRP ETF’s quarterly report shows the trust added 181,530,188 XRP worth $269.9 million in share creations during the first half of 2026, while redeeming 25,610,148 XRP worth $34.3 million. Over that period, XRP fell from $1.82 on December 31 to $1.04 on June 30. ETF buyers have been buying into a falling market all year. In October, they stopped.

Exchange Deposits Hit 6.05 Billion XRP, a Seven-Month High

The on-chain data points to selling pressure building. Total XRP deposits across all crypto exchanges reached 6.05 billion XRP over the past 30 days, a seven-month high. At $1.33, that is $8.05 billion worth of XRP moved onto exchanges in a month. Tokens moved onto exchanges are usually moved there to be sold.

The large holders are not withdrawing. Ninety-day withdrawals by large holders from Binance fell to $49.7 million, a five-year low. When whales accumulate, they tend to move tokens off exchanges into cold storage. A five-year low in whale withdrawals means the largest holders are not buying at these prices, or at least not taking their purchases off the exchange.

The two numbers together form a bearish picture. Deposits rising to a seven-month high while whale withdrawals sit at a five-year low means more XRP is flowing onto trading venues and less is leaving. That builds a supply overhang that caps rallies.

On-chain activity has not slowed. On October 19, $49.66 billion worth of XRP moved across the XRP Ledger, a large daily transfer volume. High transfer volume can signal several things: exchange rebalancing, custody movements, institutional settlement or preparation to sell. Combined with the exchange deposit data, it suggests tokens are being repositioned rather than locked up.

The fee burn is too small to offset supply. The XRP Ledger destroyed 398.19 XRP in transaction fees on October 18, measured by the change in total supply between ledgers. At $1.33, that is $530 of XRP destroyed in a day. Against a monthly escrow release of 1 billion XRP, the burn is negligible. XRP’s deflation mechanism is real but irrelevant at current usage levels.

The supply picture matters more for XRP than for Bitcoin or Ether. Bitcoin’s supply grows on a fixed schedule through mining, and Ether’s supply depends on issuance and burns. XRP’s supply depends on Ripple’s escrow management and on how many of the tokens it holds are released into circulation. With 63.13 billion XRP circulating out of a 100 billion maximum, 36.87 billion tokens remain outside circulation, mostly in Ripple’s escrow and treasury.

November 1: Another 1 Billion XRP Leaves Escrow

The next supply event is fixed on the calendar. On November 1, escrow contracts created in 2017 release 1 billion XRP, as they do on the first day of every month. At $1.33, that release is worth $1.33 billion. It arrives 12 days from now, the day after Bitcoin’s large monthly options expiry and three days after the Fed decision.

The release is not all new supply. Ripple returns 60% to 80% of each monthly release back to escrow, re-locking the tokens it does not need. That means the net addition to circulating supply each month runs between 200 million and 400 million XRP. At $1.33, that is $266 million to $532 million of new supply each month.

Set that against ETF demand, and the imbalance is clear. October’s ETF inflows of $10.25 million would absorb less than 4% of even the low end of a month’s net escrow supply. In September, when ETFs took in $121.4 million, they absorbed between 23% and 46% of the net release. With ETF demand down more than 90%, the escrow supply has to be absorbed by other buyers or it pushes the price lower.

A filing from earlier this year adds a wrinkle. A prospectus for the Cryptex Digital Market Cap ETF stated that if regulatory clarity emerges in the United States, Ripple may direct additional XRP from escrow toward supporting liquidity for stablecoins and currency pairs. The likely meaning is that Ripple would stop returning unused tokens to escrow, leaving the full monthly 1 billion XRP in circulation to provide liquidity, including for its RLUSD stablecoin. The escrow contracts themselves are time-locked at the ledger level, so Ripple cannot accelerate the release schedule.

That scenario depended on the CLARITY Act, which failed in September. Without the law, Ripple has less reason to change its re-escrow pattern. The base case is a net addition of 200 million to 400 million XRP on November 1.

The market tends to price the release ahead of the date. XRP’s weakness into the end of the month, with a bullish case of $1.38 and a bearish case of $1.24 framed around the unlock, reflects traders positioning for the supply. If the release passes without a large share entering circulation, the overhang lifts. If Ripple keeps more of it in circulation, the price faces pressure into November.

The CLARITY Act Failed and Garlinghouse Says XRP Has Clarity Anyway

The regulatory catalyst that traders expected this year did not arrive. The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, the broad crypto market structure bill, in a procedural vote on September 15. XRP slid as the vote approached and odds of passage collapsed, with Bitcoin falling to $76,000 and the entire top 20 cryptocurrencies turning red that day.

The bill mattered for XRP because it would have written into law a framework for classifying digital assets. Without it, crypto rules in the United States come mostly from regulators and courts. Rules made by agencies can be changed by future leadership more easily than an act of Congress, which leaves long-term regulatory risk in place.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse addressed the failure directly. Speaking at celebrations for Evernorth’s Nasdaq listing, he said the bill’s collapse definitely stung and that he had personally put a lot of energy into getting it through Congress. He then argued that XRP holders are in a stronger position than the failed vote suggests. At an event on October 14, he pointed to the July 2023 federal court ruling in Ripple’s case with the SEC, in which the judge wrote that XRP is not a security. On that basis, he said, XRP has clarity.

The court ruling is a real protection. It distinguished XRP itself from specific institutional sales Ripple made in its early years. That distinction allowed U.S. exchanges to list XRP and allowed spot XRP ETFs to launch in November 2025. Without the 2023 ruling, the ETFs that now hold $1.471 billion would not exist.

The market has not rewarded that clarity this year. XRP’s decline from $1.82 to $1.33 happened with the court ruling already in place. The ruling removed a risk, but it did not create demand. The CLARITY Act was expected to bring a wave of institutional products and bank adoption that a single court ruling could not. Its failure removed the catalyst traders were positioned for.

The regulatory picture leaves XRP in a holding pattern. The token has enough legal clarity to trade and to support ETFs, but not enough to attract the broader institutional adoption the bill would have unlocked. Until Congress returns to market structure legislation, the regulatory story is neutral for XRP’s price.

Evernorth’s Anniversary: XRP Lost $61 Billion in a Year

The Evernorth treasury company shows how expectations have shifted. Evernorth signed its business combination agreement on October 19, 2025, and has since listed on Nasdaq. The company holds 473 million XRP, making it the largest dedicated XRP treasury company. At $1.33, that position is worth $629 million.

The anniversary comparison is painful. In the year since Evernorth signed its deal, XRP’s circulating market value fell 42.64%, or $61.14 billion. Treasury companies were supposed to provide a steady, price-insensitive bid for XRP, much as Strategy does for Bitcoin and BitMine does for Ether. Evernorth has not been large enough to offset the broader selling.

The comparison with other treasury companies is instructive. Strategy holds 848,517 BTC, worth $70.46 billion at Tuesday’s price, and its buying has been a major factor in Bitcoin’s market structure. BitMine holds 6,041,481 ETH, worth $14.72 billion, equal to 4.9% of Ether’s supply. Evernorth’s 473 million XRP equals 0.75% of XRP’s circulating supply. The XRP treasury trade has not reached the scale needed to move the price.

Treasury companies also face their own pressures. Strategy’s shares fell 9.6% last week after MSCI adopted rules that could remove it from global indexes, and SkyAI sold its entire Solana treasury. When treasury company shares fall, their ability to raise capital to buy more tokens shrinks. Evernorth faces the same dynamic.

Ripple’s own business is expanding. Ripple Prime opened perpetual swap trading on more than 100 reference assets, running around the clock, with RLUSD as the collateral posted for those positions. RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar stablecoin, has gained traction globally. But Ripple Prime uses RLUSD, not XRP, as collateral. Ripple’s growth increasingly runs through its stablecoin rather than through demand for XRP itself.

That distinction is central to the forecast. Ripple the company can succeed while XRP the token underperforms. Stablecoin settlement, custody services and prime brokerage generate revenue for Ripple without creating proportional demand for XRP. The token’s price depends on whether Ripple’s products route value through XRP, and the current product mix leans toward RLUSD.

Sparkassen Opens XRP to German Retail Savers

One of Tuesday’s developments points to a new source of demand. Germany’s Sparkassen savings bank network began rolling out crypto trading, including XRP, to retail customers. The Sparkassen group serves millions of customers across Germany, making it one of the largest retail banking networks in Europe. Access through a familiar savings bank lowers the barrier for conservative retail investors who would not open an account on a crypto exchange.

The European regulatory framework makes this possible. Under the Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, crypto service providers in the European Union need authorization, which gives banks a clear path to offer crypto trading. U.S. regulatory uncertainty after the CLARITY Act’s failure contrasts with Europe’s defined framework.

The scale of the opportunity is large but slow to build. Retail adoption through bank channels tends to start small and grow over months. German savers are known for their conservative approach to investing, and initial uptake is likely to favor Bitcoin over XRP. Still, inclusion in the product lineup gives XRP a distribution channel that most altcoins lack.

The timing does not help the near-term forecast. Sparkassen’s rollout will not generate meaningful flows before the November 1 escrow release. The demand will build over quarters, not weeks.

The German tax treatment adds a holding incentive. Under German law, gains on privately held crypto assets are tax-free after a one-year holding period. That rule encourages buy-and-hold behavior among German retail investors, which tends to remove tokens from circulation rather than adding to trading volume.

Other European developments are worth watching. Several European banks have added crypto trading in 2026, and stablecoin regulation is pushing banks to build digital asset infrastructure. If European retail demand grows into 2027, it could offset part of the slowdown in U.S. ETF flows. For now, it is a long-term support factor rather than a short-term catalyst.

The broader point is that XRP’s demand base is shifting. U.S. ETF demand, which drove inflows from November 2025 through September 2026, has stalled. European retail access is just beginning. The gap between those two phases is where XRP finds itself now.

XRP vs Bitcoin and Ether: The Weakest Major

XRP’s relative performance tells the clearest story about where the selling is concentrated. XRP was down 29.55% for the year at $1.29, against 19.71% for Ether and 7.01% for Bitcoin. Over seven days, XRP fell 5.86%, Ether 5.82% and Bitcoin 2.9%. When money leaves crypto, it leaves the large-cap altcoins faster than Bitcoin.

The ETF comparison shows why. On Monday, spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $665.16 million. Ether ETFs lost $103 million. XRP ETFs have recorded near-zero flows. Institutional money returning to crypto is choosing Bitcoin. XRP is not even on the list.

Earlier in October, XRP looked like the exception. On October 8, XRP ETFs took in $8.17 million while Bitcoin funds lost $244.13 million and Ether funds lost $72.54 million. In the week ended October 9, XRP ETFs added $11.31 million while Bitcoin, Ether and Solana funds gave back about $1.25 billion combined. That resilience ended in the following week.

The market structure explains the vulnerability. XRP’s ETF assets equal 1.79% of its market cap, against 5.04% for Ether and 6.35% for Bitcoin. XRP depends more on exchange trading and less on institutional vehicles than the two largest cryptocurrencies. That makes it more sensitive to retail sentiment and exchange supply.

The macro forces are the same across crypto. Bitcoin’s 20-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 stands at 0.78. Crypto falls when technology stocks fall and recovers when they bounce. Tuesday’s rebound tracked the U.S. equity recovery: the Dow gained 714 points and the S&P 500 rose 0.7%. XRP’s bounce from $1.29 to $1.33 came in the same window.

XRP also faces altcoin-specific pressure. Dogecoin is down 32.64% for the year and Cardano 35.07%. Coins that trade mostly on sentiment are taking the heaviest losses. The coins holding up, such as Tron, up 15.72%, and Monero, up 42%, have narratives independent of macro or real fee revenue. XRP sits in between, with a real business behind it in Ripple but price action driven by sentiment.

A rotation into XRP would need a catalyst specific to the token. A resumption of ETF inflows, a large institutional settlement deal using XRP rather than RLUSD, or a revival of the CLARITY Act would qualify. None is on the near-term calendar.

The Macro Ceiling: Oil, Yields and the Fed

The macro environment is a headwind for every speculative asset, and XRP is no exception. The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 5.10% on Tuesday, near the 5.31% peak of October 5, its highest in 24 years. A non-yielding token has to compete with a 5.10% risk-free return. That competition has drained capital from crypto all month.

Oil drove the morning selloff. Brent crude hit $111.75 per barrel on Tuesday, its highest since May 20, after Iran-backed Houthi forces claimed strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure. XRP fell to $1.29 as Brent peaked. When Brent dropped to $106.85 later in the session, XRP recovered to $1.33. The October 7 crypto selloff started when Iran said it had attacked commercial tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Every flare-up in the Gulf has produced the same sequence: oil up, yields up, dollar up, crypto down.

Inflation keeps the Fed tightening. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, above the 3.6% forecast. Producer prices rose 6.3%. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in three years. Fed funds futures price an 82% chance of a hold at the October 27 and 28 meeting and an 89% chance of a December hike.

The Fed decision is the macro event for XRP before the escrow release. A hold with guidance that leaves December open would lower yields, weaken the dollar and lift risk assets. A firm December commitment would extend the pressure. The decision arrives four days before the November 1 unlock, so the two events will combine to set XRP’s direction into November.

The dollar matters too. The Dollar Index tested 101.76 on Tuesday, down from a one-year high earlier in October. A softer dollar generally supports crypto. A rebound toward the high would add pressure.

The AI trade adds another layer. Technology stocks sold off sharply last week on concerns about AI infrastructure financing, and chip stocks posted a nine-day losing streak. Crypto followed technology lower. A stabilization in tech, which Tuesday’s chip rebound suggested, would support XRP. A renewed tech selloff would take it back to its lows.

Technical Map: $1.29 Floor, $1.34 Ceiling, $1.38 Weekly 200 EMA

The chart has defined a narrow battleground. XRP’s daily pivot sits at $1.30, with support at $1.29 and $1.27 and resistance at $1.32 and $1.34. Tuesday’s session ran from $1.29 to $1.34, testing both ends. The bounce to $1.33 brought XRP back inside the upper half of the range but did not break $1.34.

The weekly 200-period exponential moving average is the key long-term level. At $1.30 on Tuesday morning, XRP traded about 6% below that line, putting it near $1.38. The weekly 200 EMA marks the boundary between a long-term uptrend and a long-term downtrend. XRP has traded below it through most of October. A weekly close above $1.38 would be the first sign that the long-term trend is recovering.

The $1.40 level sits just above. XRP traded at $1.40 on October 10, the last time it held that level. A return to $1.40 would recover the losses of the past ten days and put the September range back in view. At $1.33, $1.40 is 5.3% higher.

The downside levels are close. $1.29 is the immediate floor, tested Tuesday morning and held. $1.27 is the next support, 4.5% below the current price. Below that, $1.24 is the bearish target framed around the escrow release, 6.8% below. The $1.20 round number sits 9.8% below.

The upside targets extend toward September’s levels. $1.49 was XRP’s September average, 12.0% above the current price. $1.51 was the September peak, 13.5% above. Those levels would require a resumption of ETF inflows and a broad crypto rally.

The range is tight by XRP’s standards. A 24-hour range of $1.29 to $1.34 equals 3.9%, narrow for a token that has historically moved 5% to 10% in a day. Compressed ranges usually precede larger moves. With the Fed decision on October 28 and the escrow release on November 1, the breakout is likely to come in the next 12 days.

The chart favors sellers in the near term. XRP trades below its weekly 200 EMA, below its October 10 level and in the lower half of its monthly range. The trend is down until $1.38 is reclaimed.

Three Scenarios for XRP Into November

The forecast comes down to three paths, defined by ETF flows, the Fed and the escrow release.

The base case, a 50% probability, is a slow grind toward $1.27 to $1.24. ETF flows stay near zero, exchange deposits remain elevated, the Fed holds without clear guidance on December, and the November 1 escrow release adds 200 million to 400 million XRP to circulation. XRP fails to break $1.34 and drifts toward the bearish target of $1.24 by early November, a decline of 6.8% from $1.33. The token holds above $1.20 because the selling is steady rather than forced.

The bullish scenario, a 25% probability, is a recovery to $1.40. XRP ETFs resume inflows, the Fed signals that December is not locked in, Treasury yields fall below 5%, and a broad crypto rally carries Bitcoin back above $84,261. XRP breaks $1.34, then reclaims its weekly 200 EMA at $1.38, and reaches $1.40, a gain of 5.3%. A stronger move could extend toward $1.49. The Sparkassen rollout and Ripple’s product expansion would support the narrative.

The bearish scenario, a 25% probability, is a breakdown below $1.20. The Fed confirms a December hike, oil spikes above $111 again, Bitcoin breaks below $80,000, and the November 1 escrow release brings a larger share into circulation. XRP breaks $1.27 and $1.24 quickly, testing $1.20, a decline of 9.8%. Leveraged longs would be forced out, accelerating the move.

The probability skew reflects the supply picture. XRP faces a fixed monthly supply addition with near-zero ETF demand to absorb it. Exchange deposits at a seven-month high and whale withdrawals at a five-year low both point to more supply than demand. Those factors make a slow decline more likely than a recovery.

The upside requires a reversal in ETF flows. That is the single variable that would change the forecast. September’s $121.4 million showed that XRP ETFs can absorb a meaningful share of escrow supply. October’s $10.25 million showed they can stop.

XRP Price Forecast Verdict: Sell Rallies Below $1.38, Target $1.24

The verdict on XRP is cautiously bearish in the near term, with a target of $1.24, 6.8% below the current price of $1.33. Tuesday’s bounce from $1.29 tracked the U.S. equity rebound but did not change XRP’s supply and demand balance. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have taken in just $10.25 million in October, down from $121.4 million in September, and broke a 13-week inflow streak with a $1.84 million weekly outflow. Net assets fell to $1.471 billion from a $1.77 billion peak, leaving ETF investors $330 million underwater on $1.80 billion of cumulative inflows.

The supply side is building. Exchange deposits reached 6.05 billion XRP over 30 days, a seven-month high, while large-holder withdrawals from Binance fell to $49.7 million over 90 days, a five-year low. On November 1, Ripple’s escrow releases 1 billion XRP, with 200 million to 400 million expected to enter circulation after re-escrow. The daily fee burn of 398 XRP does nothing to offset that.

The long-term supports are real. The 2023 court ruling gives XRP enough legal clarity to support ETFs and exchange listings, even after the CLARITY Act failed in September. Sparkassen’s rollout opens a large European retail channel. Evernorth holds 473 million XRP on Nasdaq. Ripple’s business is growing through RLUSD and Ripple Prime. Those factors limit the downside but do not create near-term demand.

The trade is to sell rallies into the $1.34 to $1.38 zone, with a stop on a daily close above $1.40, targeting $1.27 first and $1.24 next. That sets the stop 5.3% above the current price against a first target 4.5% below and a full target 6.8% below. A daily close above $1.38 would put XRP back above its weekly 200 EMA and flip the view neutral. A close above $1.40 would turn it bullish, with $1.49 as the next target.

XRP needs ETF demand to return before it can absorb its monthly escrow supply. Until the flows resume, the weekly 200 EMA at $1.38 caps every rally, and the path into the November 1 unlock points toward $1.24.

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