XRP-USD Slides to $1.3498 as Hot Inflation Overpowers 13 Weeks of ETF Inflows and Standard Chartered RLUSD Custody

XRP spent the European morning drifting quietly near $1.38 and lost its footing the moment the US inflation report hit. The token opened Wednesday at $1.3660 and traded as high as $1.3785 before the release. When September consumer prices came in hot at 8:30 a.m. ET, XRP fell from $1.38 to an intraday low of $1.3574 in under 15 minutes, a 1.63% drop. The 15-minute candle between 12:30 and 12:45 UTC marked its steepest single-candle decline since last Thursday, with a 1.35% loss in that interval alone.

The damage extended from there. XRP slipped another 0.40% to $1.3566, breaking below the $1.3624 support level that had absorbed selling pressure throughout the session. When buyers tried to reclaim $1.3624, sellers defended the old floor and turned it into resistance. The 15-minute Relative Strength Index collapsed from 63.35 to 37.27 in less than 30 minutes. By late morning in New York, XRP traded at $1.3498, down 1.23% over 24 hours.

The broader crypto market took a harder hit. Roughly $40 billion in crypto market capitalization disappeared within 45 minutes of the release. Bitcoin fell 1.98% to $81,776 and Ether dropped 3.23% to $2,432.55. XRP’s smaller loss is consistent with a pattern that has defined October: the token has held up better than its larger peers on institutional fund flows even as its own price trend points lower.

The scale of the year still dominates the picture. XRP has fallen 35% so far in 2026. At $1.3498, it trades 44% below the $2.41 level of one year ago and 63% under its all-time high of $3.661 set on July 18, 2025. With 63.13 billion tokens in circulation, the current price values XRP at $85.2 billion, ranking it fifth among crypto assets.

The thesis for this forecast is direct: XRP is the relative winner in a losing market. It is the only major crypto with consistent ETF inflows in October, Ripple’s institutional pipeline added Standard Chartered custody and a Stripe-owned wallet partner this week, and XRP held up better than Ether and Bitcoin after the CPI print. But relative strength is not absolute strength. XRP sits below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, has printed lower highs since rejection near $1.60 to $1.66, and faces the same rising Treasury yields that are pressuring every risk asset.

That framing puts $1.31 at the center of the near-term picture. Monday’s low of $1.3125, and a wick to $1.3103, mark the floor buyers defended twice this month. Lose it and the chart opens toward the 200-day simple moving average at $1.282 and then $1.25. Above, $1.381 caps the rebound, and $1.40 to $1.42 is the zone XRP must clear to shift the trend.

The CPI Print: 3.7% Headline, 2.6% Core and a Doubling in Hike Odds

XRP’s slide began with the inflation data, and the details explain why crypto reacted so quickly.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, lifting the annual rate to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, above the 3.6% forecast. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month against a 0.2% estimate and accelerated to 2.6% year over year from 2.4%. US inflation has now run above the Fed’s 2% target for 67 consecutive months.

Energy drove the headline. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half the monthly increase, while the broader energy index rose 5.2%. That surge traces back to the Iran conflict and Brent crude holding near $106.50. The core overshoot came from shelter, up 0.4%, used vehicles, up 0.7%, and higher prices for airfares, recreation, education and medical care.

The core surprise is what moved markets. Core inflation exceeding estimates by 10 basis points caused odds of an October rate hike to double instantly. One futures-based measure moved to 47% from 22%, and one prediction market jumped to 55% from 21%. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% in September, its first hike since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials projected another increase.

The bond market repriced in minutes. The release triggered an instant jump in Treasury yields, a 2.55% rise in the VIX volatility index and a 1.10% drop in gold. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 6 basis points to 5.278%, within 9 basis points of its October 7 high of 5.364%, the highest since 2002. The dollar index rose 0.4%.

For XRP, the transmission is direct. Higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding any non-yielding asset, and a stronger dollar tightens global liquidity. Crypto assets that depend on speculative capital inflows feel that pressure first. XRP’s role as a payments and settlement token does not shield it from macro; its price trades with risk appetite, and risk appetite fell on Wednesday.

The calendar sharpens the risk. Fed officials have October 15 and 16 to signal before the quiet period begins Saturday, October 17. The Fed decides on October 28. Until then, every inflation data point and Fed headline will move crypto. Thursday brings the September producer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET, and a second hot print would extend the pressure. XRP could drop toward $1.25 if it loses the $1.32 support area, with a bigger decline possible if that line also fails.

Relative Strength: XRP Holds Up Better Than Bitcoin and Ether

One clear signal from Wednesday’s selloff is that XRP fell less than the market’s two largest assets, and that relative strength is consistent with October’s broader pattern.

After the CPI release, XRP lost 1.23% over 24 hours to $1.3498. Over the same window, Bitcoin fell 1.98% and Ether dropped 3.23%. XRP’s decline was less than half of Ether’s. In a risk-off move, the market typically sells the highest-beta assets hardest, and Ether and smaller altcoins usually lead that decline. XRP’s smaller loss suggests it is being held by buyers less sensitive to short-term macro swings.

That pattern has not been consistent across every session. On Monday, October 12, XRP fell 6.4% in the crypto liquidation wave that cost Bitcoin 2.8%, Ether 4.6% and Solana 7.5%. XRP’s daily close that day was $1.3413, down 4.89%. Over the past week, XRP is down between 6.1% and 9%, roughly in line with Ether and worse than Bitcoin. Wednesday’s relative resilience is real, but it follows a stretch where XRP was hit as hard as the rest of the altcoin market.

The divergence shows up most clearly in fund flows. During the week of October 5 to October 9, US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $681 million and Ether ETFs lost $542 million. XRP was the only one of the four major spot crypto fund groups, Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP, to finish the week with net inflows. On October 8, XRP funds attracted $8.17 million as Bitcoin and Ether funds lost more than $316 million.

Institutional news flow adds to the relative case. Standard Chartered launched institutional custody for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger on October 12, and Stripe-owned Privy announced a partnership to bring embedded wallets to the ledger on October 13. Neither development guarantees XRP demand, but both expand the infrastructure around the ledger at a time when Bitcoin and Ether have no comparable catalysts.

The XRP-to-Bitcoin relationship matters for the forecast. When XRP outperforms on down days, it signals relative buying interest. When it underperforms on down days, as it did on Monday, it signals that XRP is still treated as a high-beta altcoin. Wednesday’s move leans toward the first interpretation.

For the forecast, relative strength gives XRP a better defensive profile than Ether in this environment. It does not change the direction of the trend. XRP is still falling, just more slowly than its peers.

ETF Flows: 13 Straight Weeks of Inflows and $1.8 Billion Cumulative

US spot XRP exchange-traded funds have been the most consistent source of institutional demand in the crypto ETF market this autumn.

US spot XRP ETFs extended their streak of positive weekly net inflows to 13 consecutive weeks, collecting $11.31 million between October 5 and October 9. Cumulative inflows since launch have approached $1.8 billion. That streak contrasts sharply with Ether ETFs, which just posted ten straight outflow sessions totaling $782.8 million, and Bitcoin ETFs, which turned negative for October.

The weekly flows are concentrated. Bitwise accounted for $10.55 million of the $11.31 million weekly total. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ added $4.10 million, while Canary Capital’s XRPC had an estimated $3.34 million in outflows. On October 8, Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ accounted for the entire $8.17 million net inflow, with the other four XRP funds recording no net flows that day. On October 6, the funds took in $3.14 million.

The concentration is a caution. When one or two funds supply nearly all of the demand, the inflow streak depends on a small number of buyers. Bitwise’s ETF trades on NYSE Arca under the ticker XRP and charges a 0.34% sponsor fee, among the lower fees in the category.

The recent days have been quieter. US spot XRP ETFs recorded $0.00 in net flows on October 12, marking the fourth day in October with no capital movement. The persistent lack of daily inflows suggests short-term institutional demand has stalled, and it has failed to provide a catalyst to counter XRP’s price weakness. Zero-flow days are not outflows, but they show that fresh buying has slowed.

The flow-to-price gap is striking. The funds attracted $11.31 million in the week XRP fell from $1.52 to $1.40, and touched $1.32 on October 8. ETF inflows and token prices can move in different directions, and ETF net inflows do not establish that fund demand was strong enough to support XRP’s price. At an $85 billion market cap and daily spot volume above $1.6 billion, weekly ETF inflows of $11 million are too small to set the price on their own.

For the forecast, ETF flows are a supportive but secondary factor. The 13-week streak shows that institutional demand for XRP has not disappeared, unlike for Ether. The small size of recent inflows and the four zero-flow days in October show that it is not strong enough to reverse the price trend by itself.

ETF Holdings: 1.19 Billion XRP and a $230 Million Mark-to-Market Gap

The size and cost basis of XRP ETF holdings reveal how much of that institutional demand is currently underwater.

US spot XRP ETFs held 1.19 billion XRP as of October 3, worth $1.77 billion at that time, after a net weekly inflow of 8.2 million XRP. At Wednesday’s price of $1.3498, those holdings are worth $1.61 billion.

The gap between inflows and assets tells the story. ETF net assets stand at about $1.57 billion against roughly $1.8 billion in cumulative inflows since launch. The resulting gap of about $230 million is a rough mark-to-market measure: on aggregate, XRP ETF investors have put more money in than their holdings are now worth. That reflects XRP’s 35% decline in 2026 and the fact that many buyers entered at higher prices.

The Bitwise ETF’s own filings show the same pattern. As of June 30, 2026, the fund held 286.84 million XRP with a cost basis of $480.06 million and a fair value of $299.23 million, a 38% paper loss on that position at the time. Those figures predate the summer rally and the October pullback, but they show that early ETF buyers paid well above current prices.

Underwater holdings create two possible behaviors. Some investors hold and average down, which is what the 13-week inflow streak suggests is happening. Others wait for a rebound to break even and sell, creating overhead supply near their cost basis. The second behavior could cap rallies as XRP approaches price levels where large ETF purchases occurred.

The ETF share of supply remains small. At 1.19 billion XRP, ETFs hold 1.9% of the 63.13 billion circulating tokens. By comparison, US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold 6.35% of Bitcoin’s market cap. XRP’s institutional ownership through ETFs is still early, which means there is room for growth but also that ETF demand alone cannot move the market.

Other vehicles are emerging. On October 13, Evernorth Holdings, a company holding 473 million XRP in its treasury, began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN after completing a SPAC merger. That adds another regulated route for institutional exposure, though Evernorth shares fell 6% in premarket trading after the CPI release.

For the forecast, ETF holdings provide a base of committed institutional ownership. The $230 million underwater gap suggests that a rebound toward $1.50 could meet selling from ETF investors looking to break even.

Institutional Rails: Standard Chartered Custody, LMAX Collateral and Stripe’s Privy

This week’s biggest developments for the XRP Ledger came from institutions, and they strengthen the long-term infrastructure case even if they do not move the price today.

Standard Chartered launched institutional custody for Ripple USD on the XRP Ledger on October 12. The service runs through the bank’s branch in the Dubai International Financial Centre, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, and is available to select institutional clients. The bank is working with Ripple and LMAX Group to enable RLUSD as eligible collateral for certain LMAX products under a collateral mirroring model, which lets clients use RLUSD held in custody for trading without moving the underlying assets. Standard Chartered has also opened trading desks in the UAE.

The significance lies in the bank’s role. Standard Chartered was one of Ripple’s early backers and is one of the world’s largest emerging-market banks. Bank custody makes RLUSD usable for institutions that cannot hold assets in self-custody or on crypto exchanges, which removes a barrier to institutional adoption of the ledger.

Stripe entered the ecosystem on October 13. Privy, a Stripe-owned wallet infrastructure company, partnered with Ripple to bring embedded wallets to the XRP Ledger. Developers will be able to create and manage XRPL wallets programmatically, sign transactions through Privy’s infrastructure, and build payments with XRP, RLUSD and other assets without users managing their own private keys.

AI agents are already active on the ledger. Ripple says AI agents have made 13 million payments on the XRP Ledger, about 25% of network activity. Embedded wallets make it easier for developers to deploy those agents at scale.

Asia is another front. Ripple and Meritz Securities partnered to explore institutional custody and tokenization services for South Korea’s capital markets, one of the most active retail crypto markets in the world.

The caveat for XRP holders is critical. Neither Privy nor Ripple named XRP as the required settlement asset, allowing developers to bypass XRP entirely and settle in RLUSD. Privy’s announcement highlighted stablecoin payments without directly mentioning XRP. Infrastructure that grows the XRP Ledger does not automatically grow demand for the XRP token. Transactions on the ledger require small amounts of XRP for fees and account reserves, but the bulk of settlement value can flow through RLUSD.

For the forecast, the institutional rails support the long-term case for the XRP Ledger. The connection to XRP’s price is indirect and slow-moving, and none of these announcements changed the token’s direction this week.

RLUSD at $2.51 Billion and $278 Million in Tokenized Real-World Assets

Ripple’s stablecoin has become the fastest-growing asset on the XRP Ledger, and its growth shapes how the ledger’s value accrues.

RLUSD stood at $2.51 billion as of October 3, with $1.24 billion, or 49%, on the XRP Ledger and $1.27 billion on Ethereum. The stablecoin exceeded $2.4 billion at the start of October, with monthly market cap growth topping 50%. That growth pace makes RLUSD one of the fastest-growing dollar stablecoins in the market.

Regulatory structure supports institutional use. RLUSD is issued through Ripple subsidiary Standard Custody & Trust Company under a New York trust charter, supervised by the New York Department of Financial Services, with segregated reserves and independent attestations. BNY serves as its primary reserve custodian. That framework is what allows banks like Standard Chartered to custody the token.

Ripple has also been managing supply. The company burned 15 million RLUSD in a recent treasury move, part of routine supply adjustments to match redemptions.

Tokenized real-world assets add to ledger activity. Tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger total $278 million of distributed, transferable investor float, alongside $4.06 billion of platform-locked registry notionals. Other measures put total tokenized assets on the network above $5 billion. XRP holders have also moved tens of millions of tokens into yield products on the ledger.

The relationship between RLUSD and XRP is the key question. Every RLUSD transaction on the XRP Ledger requires a small amount of XRP for fees, and every account requires an XRP reserve. More RLUSD activity means more ledger accounts and more transactions, which creates baseline demand for XRP. But the amounts are small relative to XRP’s $85 billion market value. The token’s price depends far more on speculative and investment demand than on transactional use.

There is also a substitution effect. For payment use cases, businesses often prefer a dollar stablecoin to a volatile token. RLUSD offers dollar stability on the same rails, which may reduce demand for XRP as a bridge currency in some payment flows. Ripple’s own partnerships increasingly feature RLUSD alongside XRP.

For the forecast, RLUSD’s growth is positive for the XRP Ledger and for Ripple’s business. Its effect on XRP’s price is limited in the near term. The stablecoin makes the ledger more useful without necessarily making the token more valuable.

Supply: 31.68 Billion in Escrow, 1 Billion Monthly Unlocks, 20.30 Billion on Exchanges

XRP’s supply structure is unique among major crypto assets, and Ripple’s escrow schedule is a constant factor in the forecast.

Ripple’s on-ledger escrow held 31.68 billion XRP as of October 3, equal to 31.7% of the fixed 100 billion supply. A further 4.74 billion XRP sits in Ripple’s operational wallets. Tracked exchanges hold 20.30 billion XRP. Circulating supply stands at 63.13 billion tokens.

The escrow releases on a schedule. Ripple performed its scheduled monthly release of 1 billion XRP on October 1, with four transactions totaling 1 billion XRP unlocked. Ripple has historically returned 700 million to 800 million of each monthly release to escrow, using the remainder for operations, ecosystem initiatives and sales. The escrow was set up in 2017 as a series of trust accounts on the ledger, and its holdings are public and verifiable.

The October unlock passed with little price impact. On October 1, XRP traded near $1.49, essentially unchanged after the release. The market has priced the escrow schedule for years, and the monthly unlocks rarely move the price on the day. The next scheduled unlock window opens November 1, 2026, again for up to 1 billion XRP.

The structural effect is gradual. The portion of each unlock that Ripple does not return to escrow adds to circulating supply. At 200 million to 300 million XRP per month, that is 2.4 billion to 3.6 billion XRP a year, an annual supply increase of 4% to 6% relative to the 63.13 billion circulating. That supply growth requires steady demand just to keep the price flat.

Exchange holdings are a key indicator. The 20.30 billion XRP on tracked exchanges represents 32% of circulating supply. Tokens on exchanges are available for sale, so rising exchange balances signal potential selling pressure, while falling balances suggest holders are moving tokens into custody or yield products.

The ledger’s integrity was confirmed this week. The XRP Ledger Foundation confirmed a recently patched vulnerability did not create new XRP, and the ledger’s 100 billion supply remains intact. That matters for confidence in the fixed-supply model.

For the forecast, the supply side is a steady headwind. Monthly escrow releases add supply, and exchange balances provide a ready pool for sellers. Neither factor is new, but in a market without strong buying, steady supply growth contributes to the downward drift.

Evernorth and the Treasury Vehicles: XRPN Debuts on Nasdaq

The corporate treasury model that drove demand for Bitcoin and Ether has arrived for XRP, and its first public test came this week.

Evernorth Holdings, a Ripple-backed company holding 473 million XRP in its treasury, completed its SPAC merger and began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on October 13. Shares closed 1.38% higher at $16.91 on the first day, though an early rally faded. On Wednesday, XRPN traded 6% lower in premarket after the CPI release.

The treasury’s value has fallen sharply since the deal was signed. XRP’s market value dropped from $2.37 at the time of signing the agreement to an estimated $1.43 in the SPAC filings, and the current stack is valued at $648.01 million. At Wednesday’s $1.3498, the 473 million XRP are worth $638.5 million. The company has raised about $300 million in gross capital.

Treasury vehicles offer indirect XRP exposure through a listed stock. That opens XRP to investors who cannot hold crypto directly or who prefer equity wrappers. For Bitcoin, Strategy’s accumulation became a major source of demand. For Ether, Bitmine has accumulated 6.03 million ETH, 4.9% of supply.

Evernorth is far smaller. Its 473 million XRP equal 0.75% of circulating supply, and its ability to buy more depends on raising capital at a time when its share price is falling. Treasury companies work best when their shares trade at a premium to the value of their holdings, letting them issue stock to buy more tokens. When shares trade at or below net asset value, the model stalls.

The timing of the debut was difficult. Launching into a week of falling crypto prices and a hot inflation print tested investor appetite immediately. The 6% premarket drop on Wednesday shows that XRPN trades as a leveraged proxy for XRP, falling harder than the token itself on risk-off days.

The broader point is that institutional vehicles for XRP are multiplying: spot ETFs holding 1.19 billion XRP, Evernorth with 473 million, and custody services from banks like Standard Chartered. Each adds a channel for institutional capital to reach the token.

For the forecast, Evernorth is a long-term structural positive and a near-term non-factor. Its holdings are modest, its capacity to buy depends on its share price, and its debut coincided with a macro selloff.

Derivatives: $3.00 Billion Open Interest and Monday’s Long Flush

XRP’s derivatives market is large relative to spot trading, and its positioning shapes how the token reacts to macro shocks.

On October 13, XRP futures volume reached $3.82 billion over 24 hours, compared with spot volume of $680.81 million. Open interest stood at $3.00 billion. Futures trading ran 5.6 times spot trading, which means leveraged traders, not spot buyers, are setting much of XRP’s short-term price action.

That leverage explains Monday’s damage. On October 12, $771 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with longs accounting for 88.9% of the total. XRP fell 6.4% that day, its daily close dropping 4.89% to $1.3413. XRP traded as low as $1.3125, and other venues showed a wick to $1.3103 or $1.30, before a V-shaped recovery took it back toward $1.37 by Tuesday.

The recovery came on lower leverage but not a full reset. XRP longs were hit in the run-up to CPI as well, with the token trading near $1.36 and ETF flows flat on Tuesday. Open interest of $3.00 billion remains elevated relative to the token’s spot liquidity, which leaves room for further liquidation cascades if price breaks key support.

Wednesday’s CPI drop was orderly by comparison. The 1.63% decline in 15 minutes did not trigger a cascade, and XRP stabilized near $1.35 to $1.36. That suggests Monday’s flush cleared some of the most vulnerable long positions.

The concentration of stops below support is the main risk. Leveraged longs tend to place stop orders just below obvious support levels. For XRP, those levels are $1.32 and $1.31. A break below $1.31 would trigger those stops, adding forced selling at exactly the moment the chart loses its floor. The next support at $1.282, the 200-day simple moving average, would likely be tested quickly in that scenario.

The reverse holds for shorts. If XRP reclaims $1.381 on rising open interest, short positions opened during the October decline would be forced to cover, accelerating a move toward $1.42.

For the forecast, derivatives amplify XRP’s moves in both directions. With futures volume five times spot and open interest at $3.00 billion, a break of $1.31 or $1.381 would likely run further than fundamentals alone would justify.

From $3.66 to $1.35: The Drawdown and the Three-Month Rebound

XRP’s price history over the past year shows both the scale of its decline and the strength of its summer recovery.

XRP hit its all-time high of $3.661 on July 18, 2025, during the euphoria that followed the resolution of Ripple’s legal case and anticipation of spot ETFs. One year ago, it traded at $2.41 to $2.43. Since then, it has fallen 44%, and it sits 63% below its record. In 2026 alone, the token has lost 35%.

The decline reflects the broader crypto bear market. Bitcoin has fallen 27.7% over the past year and Ether 41%. XRP’s 44% annual decline puts it closer to Ether than Bitcoin, consistent with its status as a large-cap altcoin. The macro backdrop, a Fed turning from cuts to hikes and Treasury yields reaching their highest level since 2002, has hit every crypto asset.

The summer brought a sharp recovery. Three months ago, XRP traded at $1.08. From that low to the current price, the token has gained 25%. At its September peak, XRP reached the $1.60 to $1.66 zone, a 50% rally from the July low. That rebound coincided with the start of the 13-week ETF inflow streak.

October has erased part of that gain. XRP closed at $1.4847 on October 2 after touching $1.5495 intraday, and held above $1.50 through October 4 and October 5, with daily closes of $1.5202 and $1.5077. The decline began on October 7, when XRP fell 5.05% to $1.4215. It touched $1.32 on October 8 before closing at $1.3798. A modest recovery to $1.4102 by October 11 failed, and Monday’s 4.89% drop took it to $1.3413.

The structure is a descending channel. XRP has moved inside a descending channel after rejection near $1.60 to $1.66, with lower highs at $1.5495, $1.4238 and $1.3820. Each rebound has failed at a lower level. The channel’s lower boundary sits near $1.30, where XRP bounced on Monday.

The 30-day view is flat. XRP is roughly unchanged from one month ago, with readings between minus 0.79% and plus 1.26% depending on the source. That reflects a round trip from $1.35 to $1.66 and back.

For the forecast, the history shows XRP has already given back most of its September rally. The three-month gain from $1.08 is the cushion bulls point to. The descending channel since the September peak is the pattern bears point to.

Chart Map: $1.31 Floor, $1.381 Ceiling, $1.40 to $1.42 Breakout Zone

The technical structure is defined by a series of moving averages stacked above the price and a floor that has held twice.

XRP trades below its 20-day exponential moving average at $1.4247, its 50-day EMA at $1.3946 and its 200-day EMA at $1.3794. The 200-day EMA acts as a cap, and XRP broke below it again on Monday. The 100-day EMA at $1.3402 has acted as support, and XRP is testing that level now at $1.3498.

Support begins at the $1.34 to $1.35 zone, which coincides with the 100-day EMA. Below that, $1.32 is the most relevant near-term support. Monday’s low near $1.31, which some venues showed at $1.3103, marks the clearest floor on the chart. A daily close below $1.31 would break the lower boundary of the channel and target the 200-day simple moving average at $1.282, a 5.0% decline from current levels. Below that, $1.25 marks the next support, 7.4% below the current price, with $1.20 to $1.25 the deeper downside area.

Resistance stacks up overhead. The first barrier is $1.3624, the support that broke on the CPI candle and has now turned into resistance. Above that, $1.381 is the main resistance for any recovery attempt. As long as XRP stays below $1.381, the base case for the next several sessions is another move lower. The 200-day EMA at $1.3794 sits right below it, reinforcing the zone.

The breakout zone is $1.40 to $1.42. A recovery through that region would strengthen the case for a move toward $1.45, and the 50-day SMA near $1.425 would be the next target. Beyond that, $1.50 to $1.56 is the zone XRP must reclaim before its short-term trend improves.

Momentum indicators lean bearish. The 14-day RSI sits at 41.4, signaling bearish momentum without oversold conditions. The ADX shows a weak trend at 11, consistent with a market chopping in a range rather than trending strongly.

For the forecast, the levels are clear. A daily close below $1.31 targets $1.282 and then $1.25. A reclaim of $1.381 targets $1.40 to $1.42, with $1.45 above that. Between those levels, XRP is in a bearish range, trading near its lower half.

Catalysts: PPI Thursday, the October 23 Amendment, Swell, the Fed and the November 1 Unlock

The next three weeks carry a mix of macro and XRP-specific events that will decide whether the token breaks its range.

Thursday, October 15, at 8:30 a.m. ET: US September PPI, retail sales and jobless claims. A second hot inflation print would push hike odds higher and extend crypto’s decline. A soft print would give XRP room to retest $1.381.

October 15 and 16: Fed speakers before the quiet period begins Saturday, October 17. Hawkish signals would pressure XRP toward $1.31.

Daily: XRP ETF flow prints. After four zero-flow days in October, a return to steady inflows above $5 million a day would signal renewed institutional demand. A first outflow week would end the 13-week streak and remove one of XRP’s key supports.

October 23: the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is scheduled for activation on the XRP Ledger mainnet, with changes spanning Single Asset Vaults, the Lending Protocol, Automated Market Makers, the permissioned DEX framework, trust lines, NFTs, escrow and transaction signing. Activation depends on maintaining over 80% validator support. Network upgrades rarely move price directly, but a smooth activation supports confidence in the ledger after this week’s patched vulnerability.

October 27 to 29: Ripple’s Swell conference in New York, held for the first time alongside the Apex summit for XRP Ledger developers, enterprises and stakeholders. Swell has historically been a venue for partnership announcements, and new institutional deals could provide a sentiment lift.

October 28: the Fed decision, which falls in the middle of Swell. A hike would hit crypto broadly and likely push XRP toward $1.25. A hold with December guidance would leave room for a Swell-driven rebound.

October 29: US September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge.

November 1: Ripple’s next scheduled escrow unlock of up to 1 billion XRP.

Background risks remain constant. Oil near $106 keeps inflation elevated, and Bitcoin’s leveraged positioning leaves the broader market vulnerable to liquidation cascades that would pull XRP lower.

XRP Forecast and Verdict: Bearish Below $1.381, $1.25 Target on a Break of $1.31

The verdict for XRP-USD is bearish in the near term, with relative resilience. XRP at $1.3498 broke its $1.3624 support on the CPI candle and now trades below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. September CPI ran at 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, the 10-year Treasury jumped to 5.278%, and October Fed hike odds doubled. XRP has printed lower highs since rejection near $1.60 to $1.66, and it has lost 35% in 2026.

The relative case is real. XRP fell 1.23% after CPI against Bitcoin’s 1.98% and Ether’s 3.23%. Spot XRP ETFs have attracted inflows for 13 straight weeks, reaching $1.8 billion cumulative, while Ether ETFs posted ten straight outflow sessions. Standard Chartered launched RLUSD custody on the XRP Ledger, Stripe’s Privy brought embedded wallets to the network, and AI agents account for 25% of ledger activity. RLUSD has grown to $2.51 billion.

The headwinds are stronger in the near term. ETF inflows have shrunk to $11.31 million a week with four zero-flow days in October, and the funds sit $230 million below their cumulative inflows. Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow each month, with 20.30 billion tokens on exchanges. Futures volume runs 5.6 times spot volume with $3.00 billion in open interest, amplifying macro moves. Institutional rails grow the ledger but often settle in RLUSD rather than XRP.

The base case into the October 28 Fed meeting is a test of $1.31. A daily close below that level targets the 200-day simple moving average at $1.282 and then $1.25, a 7.4% decline from current levels. A hot PPI print Thursday or a hawkish Fed signal before Saturday’s blackout would accelerate that move, with stops below $1.31 adding forced selling.

The bullish path requires a soft PPI, renewed ETF inflows, and a reclaim of $1.381 with rising open interest that forces shorts to cover. That combination would target $1.40 to $1.42, a 3.7% to 5.2% gain, with $1.45 above that. A partnership announcement at Swell in late October could provide an additional lift.

Forecast: bearish near term, with a $1.25 downside target on a confirmed break of $1.31 and a $1.42 upside target only if XRP reclaims $1.381. XRP’s relative strength against Ether and Bitcoin makes it the stronger altcoin in a weak market, but until the 10-year Treasury stops climbing and daily ETF inflows return, rallies into $1.36 to $1.38 are selling opportunities.

That's TradingNEWS