Ripple XRP (XRP-USD) Steadies at $2.43- SEC Shutdown Freezes ETF Decisions, Inflows Hit $61.6M

Ripple (XRP-USD) ETFs Ignite Institutional Frenzy Amid SEC Delays and $10B Inflow Forecast

Countdown to SEC Decision and the High-Stakes XRP ETF Race

The market is entering a critical stretch as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nears its long-awaited decision window for spot XRP ETFs, set between October 18 and October 25, 2025. The ruling carries weight far beyond a single asset approval — it represents a structural turning point for Ripple (XRP-USD) and its integration into institutional portfolios.
Major issuers, including Grayscale, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and WisdomTree, are awaiting clearance following the SEC’s temporary freeze during the U.S. government shutdown. The delay has injected volatility but also built anticipation. Market strategists estimate that once the freeze lifts, XRP-linked ETFs could trigger up to $10 billion in inflows within weeks — rivaling Bitcoin’s early ETF boom in scale and speed.

Institutional Inflows Rebuild Despite the Shutdown

Even amid the SEC’s pause, institutional appetite for XRP has remained robust. CoinShares data revealed $61.6 million in inflows to XRP-related products in the week ending October 13, marking the 18th consecutive week of net gains. This consistency underscores that large investors are positioning ahead of potential ETF approval, viewing XRP not as a speculative asset but as a liquidity vehicle for institutional-grade transactions.
Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, highlighted that several issuers have already filed amended S-1 registrations, an essential prelude to activation. “The floodgates will open the moment the SEC resumes operations,” Geraci said, describing XRP as “the next institutional bridge after Bitcoin and Ethereum.”

Coinbase Outage Fuels Speculation Around SEC Coordination

On October 25, as the SEC’s decision date approaches, Coinbase — one of the largest U.S. exchanges to relist XRP following the Ripple lawsuit — has scheduled a 4-hour system maintenance window, coinciding precisely with the SEC’s anticipated review period.
Market analyst ChartNerd called the timing “too precise to be random,” suggesting internal preparations for ETF-related infrastructure upgrades. Coinbase confirmed that during the window, trading, staking, and credit card transactions will be temporarily disabled, while viewing balances remains active. With Coinbase’s futures and derivatives desk also offline from 4:00 AM to 1:00 PM PT, analysts suspect this is a synchronization move aligned with potential ETF market rollout scenarios.

XRP ETF Structures and the Rise of Leveraged Exposure

The ETF landscape for XRP is rapidly diversifying. Volatility Shares LLC has filed for a suite of 3x and 5x leveraged XRP ETFs, aiming to give investors amplified exposure — multiplying both gains and risks. The company already operates a 1:1 XRP ETF, launched in May, managing $189.1 million in assets with an average daily volume of $9.7 million.
According to Yahoo Finance, the XRP ETF (XRPI) trades near $14.54, with a 52-week range of $12.69–$23.53 and net assets of $198.82 million. Its peer, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR), trades around $20.07, down 2% on the day, but within a 19.74–25.99 range. Both funds track XRP futures contracts registered with the CFTC, offering institutional-grade collateralization through high-quality securities.

However, experts like Scott Melker warn of excessive risk for retail investors. Melker criticized Volatility Shares’ new proposals as “the worst idea ever,” arguing that “offering 5x leverage on altcoins like XRP magnifies losses beyond reason.” His concern is not misplaced — during the $19 billion leveraged crypto liquidation that shook markets earlier this month, $707 million came from XRP positions alone.

Regulatory Roadblocks: The 19b-4 Filing Confusion

While many anticipated ETF approvals in October, Greg Xethalis, a legal expert on digital assets, clarified that 19b-4 filings are procedural, not definitive. He explained that even after their effective date under Generic Listing Standards, issuers still need S-1 registration and Form 8-A compliance under the Securities Act of 1933 and 1934, both of which require active SEC review.
With the SEC frozen by the government shutdown, no progress can occur until operations resume. “We’re essentially in standby mode,” Xethalis noted, “waiting for the government to reopen.” However, he added that issuers could technically activate filings after 20 days by removing delaying amendments — though exchanges like CBOE BZX, NYSE Arca, and Nasdaq are unlikely to proceed until the SEC formally resumes oversight.

Ripple’s Expanding Ecosystem and Market Metrics

The anticipation around ETFs has already rippled through the on-chain ecosystem. Decentralized Exchange (DEX) volume on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) surged 203%, indicating growing preference for native trading. This spike, coupled with falling centralized exchange balances, signals tightening supply — a factor that typically exerts upward price pressure when demand accelerates.
At the same time, institutional XRP demand continues to spill into the derivatives and futures markets. CME Group has already begun facilitating options on XRP futures, expanding regulated exposure alongside Solana. The first trade between Wintermute and Superstate confirmed institutional readiness for XRP-based derivatives.

XRP Price Reaction and Market Scenarios

XRP-USD currently trades near $2.43, down 3.26% on the day but still holding a year-to-date gain of over 160%. Analysts project that a successful ETF approval could catapult XRP toward $4.25–$5.50, with speculative momentum possibly lifting it toward $7–$8 under euphoric conditions.
In contrast, if the SEC extends its review window into late November, XRP could consolidate between $2.20 and $2.80, forming a technical base before the next breakout phase. On-chain analysts note that the XRP Ledger’s supply contraction and DEX liquidity boom could amplify upward moves once institutional ETF demand materializes.

Volatility Shares and the 5x ETF Controversy

The 5x leverage ETF proposal has divided the market. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the SEC has not yet approved any 3x crypto ETF, let alone 5x. However, he warned that if the shutdown continues, the applications might automatically take effect within 75 days, placing a tentative launch around December 29, 2025.
Henry Jim, another ETF expert, echoed that timeline and added that if approved, these funds could “redefine volatility metrics across the altcoin ETF universe.” Still, the SEC may intervene once it resumes, delaying leveraged crypto products until after the spot ETF cycle concludes.

Institutional Implications and Liquidity Transformation

The arrival of spot and leveraged XRP ETFs will do more than boost price — it will institutionalize liquidity. XRP’s integration into regulated investment frameworks could reposition it from a cross-border payment token into a multi-institutional liquidity bridge asset.
Data from Yahoo Finance shows the XRP ETF (XRPI) maintains $198.82 million in net assets, while category averages in digital-asset ETFs returned 56.37% over the past year. Once ETFs are approved, that liquidity could scale into billions, absorbing volatility while increasing XRP’s macro relevance alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market Sentiment and Strategic Positioning

Despite near-term uncertainty, sentiment remains bullish. The Fear & Greed Index for crypto markets hovers near 41, signaling cautious optimism. Institutional investors view XRP’s low exchange supply and ETF readiness as signs of strategic accumulation potential.
ETF Store President Nate Geraci reiterated that XRP’s approval would be “the final step in legitimizing digital assets as core portfolio holdings.” Meanwhile, Ripple’s expanding partnerships, including Absa Bank’s custody deal in Africa, continue to strengthen its global footprint in regulated financial infrastructure.

Verdict: XRP-USD — Strong Buy

All data points converge toward a bullish setup. Institutional inflows are accelerating, DEX activity is surging, and ETF approval—though delayed—is inevitable. Ripple’s regulatory clarity and expanding infrastructure create a structural investment case unmatched among altcoins.

With XRP at $2.43, the risk-reward skew favors accumulation. A confirmed ETF launch could drive XRP above $5 in the near term and position it toward $7–$8 under full speculative rotation. Institutional demand is no longer speculative—it’s measurable.

Final Rating: Buy
XRP-USD stands at the intersection of regulatory breakthrough and liquidity expansion, supported by on-chain growth, institutional positioning, and ETF-driven demand. Once the SEC resumes, XRP ETFs could transform the asset into the third institutional pillar of crypto investing after BTC and ETH, solidifying its long-term trajectory above $5.

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