XRPI and XRPR Slide Toward 52-Week Lows as XRP Breaks Below $1.07, but a Relief Rally Keeps $7 and $10.60 Targets

The two oldest XRP funds in the US market closed lower again on Tuesday. The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) fell $0.17, or 2.92%, to $5.66. It opened at $5.65, traded as high as $5.72 and dropped to a session low of $5.50, just 8 cents above its 52-week low of $5.42. In after-hours trading the fund slipped further, to $5.56 by mid-evening, as XRP kept sliding after the US close.

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (CBOE:XRPR) had a similar day. It fell $0.29, or 3.26%, to $8.61, after opening at $8.67, topping at $8.71 and touching a low of $8.52. That low sits 42 cents above its 52-week low of $8.10. Both funds have now given back almost everything since their summer peaks. XRPI trades 61.8% below its 52-week high of $14.82. XRPR trades 59.5% below its 52-week high of $21.28.

The move tracks XRP itself. XRP fell to $1.050 on Tuesday, a fresh low for this leg, after breaking below Monday’s $1.07502 low. It is down 19.5% since its November 4 close of $1.3048 and 71% below its all-time high of $3.6618. Both ETFs are built to follow XRP’s price, so when XRP breaks lower, the funds follow it down.

The distance to the lows is what stands out. XRPI’s close sits only 4.4% above its 52-week low, and its after-hours price of $5.56 cut that gap to 2.6%. XRPR sits 6.3% above its own low. A further 3% to 5% drop in XRP would push both funds to new 52-week lows. For holders, that makes the next few sessions decisive.

The backdrop explains the pressure. The October CPI came in hot on Tuesday, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped 19 basis points to 4.736%, and the odds of a 50bp Fed hike in December rose to 15% from zero. Bitcoin fell to $73,124. Spot XRP ETFs took in no new money for a full week. XRPI and XRPR, as the higher-cost first movers in the category, are feeling the full weight of all of it.

XRPI: The Futures-Based First Mover

XRPI launched on May 22, 2025, before any spot XRP ETF existed in the US. It was one of the first ways US investors could buy XRP exposure in a regular brokerage account. The fund does not hold XRP directly. It gets its exposure mainly through CME-listed XRP futures contracts, held through a Cayman Islands subsidiary, and invests the rest in cash and short-term Treasury collateral. Details are on the Volatility Shares fund page.

The structure matters for returns. XRPI holds near-month CME XRP futures and rolls them before they expire. In March 2026, for example, the fund held 1,594 CME XRP March futures contracts with a notional value of $111.18 million, equal to 100.01% of net assets. Its regulatory filings show the same model over time: futures for the XRP exposure and Treasury bills plus cash for collateral.

Rolling futures has a cost. When later-dated futures trade above near-dated ones, a condition called contango, the fund sells the cheaper expiring contract and buys the more expensive next one. Each roll gives up a small amount of value. Over time, those roll costs can make a futures-based fund lag the spot price, especially when contango is steep. When XRP is falling and futures trade at a discount to spot, the effect can reverse, but in most market conditions contango is the norm.

Fees add to the drag. Volatility Shares waived part of its fee through June 30, 2026, holding the net expense ratio at 0.94%. After the waiver period, the management fee steps up to 1.15%. That compares with spot XRP ETFs that charge as little as 0.19%. For a long-term holder, a gap of nearly 1 percentage point a year adds up.

XRPI pays monthly distributions, which come mainly from the interest earned on its Treasury collateral. Recent payouts have been small, in the range of 1.5 cents to 2.4 cents per share. With the fund’s price down sharply, the distributions do not come close to offsetting the decline. The fund’s key appeal today is that it is liquid, established and listed on Nasdaq. Its main drawbacks are cost and structure.

XRPR: REX-Osprey’s Spot-Plus Structure

XRPR, from REX-Osprey, also launched in 2025, before the wave of pure spot XRP ETFs. It was built under the Investment Company Act of 1940 rather than as a grantor trust, which gave it a faster path to market. The fund gains XRP exposure through a mix of direct holdings, other XRP exchange-traded products and a Cayman subsidiary. Its filings are available through SEC EDGAR.

That structure sits between XRPI’s futures model and the pure spot funds. Because XRPR holds more spot exposure, it avoids most futures roll costs. Its tracking of the XRP spot price should be closer than XRPI’s over long periods. But its expense ratio is still higher than the newer spot funds, and its structure is more complex.

The price ratios show how closely each fund follows XRP. At Tuesday’s close, with XRP near $1.05, XRPI’s $5.66 implies a ratio of about 5.39 shares of XRPI per XRP dollar. XRPR’s $8.61 implies a ratio of about 8.20. Those ratios drift over time as fees, roll costs and distributions take their toll. Tracking the ratio from month to month is the simplest way to measure how much value each fund loses relative to XRP itself.

Both funds face the same competitive problem. Six spot XRP ETFs now trade in the US. Canary’s XRPC opened the market on November 13, 2025. Bitwise followed on November 20 with a fund under the ticker XRP on the NYSE. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ and Grayscale’s GXRP joined on November 24. Those funds hold XRP directly, charge lower fees, and have gathered far more assets.

That competition is the biggest long-term risk for XRPI and XRPR. When cheaper alternatives exist, investors tend to migrate over time. Issuers sometimes close or merge funds when assets stay low and fees fail to cover costs. Neither Volatility Shares nor REX-Osprey has announced such plans, but holders should watch fund size and flows closely.

XRP at $1.050 and the Broken $1.28–$1.31 Zone

The funds’ direction depends entirely on XRP. The token opened Tuesday at $1.0985, topped at $1.1056 before the US inflation report, then fell through Monday’s $1.07502 low after the data. It traded as low as $1.0473 on the USDT pair. At $1.050, XRP is down 4.3% from Monday’s $1.0976 close.

The damage started in late October. XRP spent much of that month trading around the $1.28–$1.31 support zone. On October 29 it fell 6.84%, from $1.3257 to $1.2348, and closed below the band for the first time. It bounced back toward the zone, closing at $1.3048 on November 4 after touching $1.3391 intraday. That retest failed. On November 5, XRP fell 7.46% to $1.2075, and old support became new resistance.

Six straight losing sessions followed. XRP lost 2.39%, 1.27%, 4.43% and 1.20% on the days after November 5, then fell again on Tuesday. Daily RSI sits at 26.5, deep in oversold territory and still falling. The token trades below every major moving average on the daily, hourly and 15-minute charts. The daily lower Bollinger Band sits at $1.12, above the live price.

Market value has fallen with the price. With 63,516,606,953 XRP in circulation, the token’s market value is down to $66.50 billion, ranking sixth among digital assets. One month ago XRP traded at $1.40. A year ago it traded at $2.57. That steep yearly decline is why both ETFs sit more than 59% below their 52-week highs.

XRP’s next supports sit close by. The $1.00 round number is the first, about 5% below the current price. The 52-week low of $0.9886 sits just under it. A daily close below that zone would push XRPI and XRPR to new lows and open a deeper leg lower. A hold there would set up the relief rally that the upside targets assume.

Spot XRP ETFs Stop Buying

The broader XRP ETF category has stalled. Spot XRP ETFs held $1.81 billion of cumulative net inflows at the November 8 snapshot. For most of 2026, flows were steady. The funds logged weekly inflows every week from the week ended July 17 through the week ended October 9. The record week came in late August, when spot funds took in $110.49 million.

Then the buying stopped. In the trading week of November 2 to 6, spot XRP ETFs posted a $529,500 outflow on November 2, all from Canary’s XRPC. They then logged zero net flows on November 3, 4, 5 and 6. Four straight flat sessions during a 7.1% weekly drop in XRP means no institutional buyer stepped in to absorb selling on exchanges. The last positive week was the one ended October 30, with $4.3 million.

Net assets have shrunk with the price. Total spot XRP ETF net assets fell to $1.34 billion, 1.80% of XRP’s market value, down from $1.425 billion on November 2 and $1.57 billion in early October. The Bitwise XRP ETF’s quarterly filing showed the trust held 413,140,980.4731 XRP worth $616,063,436 at a $1.4912 reference price on September 30. At $1.050, the same holding is worth $433.8 million.

The flat flows hit XRPI and XRPR harder than the spot funds. When spot funds stop taking in money, the older, higher-cost funds tend to see outright outflows, as investors who stay in XRP exposure switch to cheaper products. XRPI’s assets have trended lower for months, with net assets below $90 million on recent data, down from more than $160 million earlier in the year.

The category needs a catalyst. November 13 marks the first anniversary of the first spot XRP ETF, a date that may draw attention back to the products. A return to steady daily inflows into spot funds would be the clearest sign of a bottom in XRP. It would also ease the pressure on XRPI and XRPR, because a rising tide in the category usually lifts the older funds along with it.

The CPI Print and the Fed Repricing

Tuesday’s macro data drove the move. The October Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month over month against a 0.3% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2%, the third straight core print at 0.3% and the fifth this year. Shelter rose 0.3%, food 0.5%, energy 0.7% and gasoline 1.0%. Used cars fell 1.2%, the only notable offset.

Fed officials had already framed the stakes. Governor Christopher Waller said a 50bp hike should be considered if core runs around 0.3%, and core came in exactly there. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for two more hikes. Futures moved to 85% odds of a 25bp hike and 15% odds of a 50bp hike at the December 9 FOMC. The 50bp case had zero before the data.

Rates moved hard. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 19 basis points to 4.736%. The 10-year traded at 4.99% and the 30-year at 5.29%. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.00. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no yield, and XRP sits at the high-risk end of that spectrum.

There is a direct link to XRPI’s returns. The fund invests its collateral in Treasury bills, so higher short-term rates increase the interest income it earns. That income funds its monthly distributions and offsets part of its fees. A Fed that hikes to 4.25% or 4.50% would raise that income slightly. But the effect is tiny compared with the impact of higher rates on XRP’s price.

Equities fell alongside crypto. The S&P 500 lost 0.71% to 7,496.17, the Nasdaq dropped 0.87% to 25,034.07 and the VIX rose to 21.06. The calendar keeps the pressure on, with the Producer Price Index on Friday, the Fed minutes on November 18 and the November CPI on December 10. Each release will be read for evidence on whether the Fed moves 25bp or 50bp.

Bitcoin at $73,124 Sets the Ceiling

XRP has been trading as a high-beta version of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is weak. After the CPI, Bitcoin traded at $73,124 and Ethereum at $2,023.92. XRP has fallen faster than both. Last week XRP dropped 7.1%, against a 2.3% decline for Bitcoin and 0.8% for Ethereum.

Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on November 9, a third straight outflow day, led by $213.2 million from BlackRock’s IBIT. They lost $1.282 billion in the week of November 2 to 6. Net flows for 2026 have turned negative, at roughly $914 million. When the largest crypto ETF category is losing money, it is hard for smaller categories like XRP to attract new capital.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, held 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451 as of November 1. Bitcoin at $73,124 sits below that average. When the biggest corporate buyer is underwater, the narrative that kept institutions buying through 2026 weakens, and altcoins feel it first.

The XRP-to-Bitcoin ratio shows the underperformance. At $1.050 against $73,124, XRP is worth 0.00001436 BTC, or 1,436 satoshis. The ratio has been falling as XRP lost its October range while Bitcoin held a wider one. When the ratio falls, money is leaving altcoins for Bitcoin or for cash.

A recovery in XRPI and XRPR almost certainly needs Bitcoin to stabilize first. A Bitcoin move back above $75,451 and toward $80,000 would ease pressure across altcoins. A Bitcoin break below $70,000 would likely push XRP through $1.00 and toward its $0.9886 yearly low, and both ETFs to new lows.

The CLARITY Act and Washington’s Shift

Regulation has been XRP’s main bullish catalyst in 2026, and it has stalled. The CLARITY Act, which would set a federal market-structure framework for digital assets and give XRP a clearer non-security status, passed the Senate Banking Committee 15–9 on May 14. It was placed on the Senate calendar on June 1. In July, the Senate was short of the 60 votes needed to advance it, and a debate over a new ethics provision held it up further.

The midterms changed the picture. Democrats won both chambers of Congress. Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of Congress’s most prominent crypto critics, is expected to chair the Senate Banking Committee from January 2027. That would put a skeptic in charge of the committee that writes market-structure rules.

The lame-duck session is the last window under the current Congress. It is short and crowded with budget and spending deadlines. If the bill fails to pass before January, a Warren-led committee would likely restart the process with tighter terms or let it sit. That would leave XRP without its main regulatory catalyst well into 2027.

For XRPI and XRPR, regulation matters on two levels. A clear non-security classification would support XRP’s price, which lifts both funds. It could also open the door to new products and wider distribution, including more competition from low-cost spot funds. The older funds benefit from the first effect and lose from the second.

A surprise lame-duck vote is the main upside wildcard. Passage before year-end would likely trigger a sharp short-covering rally in XRP, because the market has largely written off the bill’s near-term chances. That scenario would push XRP toward $1.30 or higher and lift XRPI and XRPR through their upside targets.

Ripple’s Business Versus the Token

Ripple’s corporate progress has not lifted XRP. Ripple Payments has processed more than $100 billion of transaction volume across 60 countries. The company closed a $200 million debt financing to expand Ripple Prime, its institutional brokerage platform. Its RLUSD stablecoin topped $2 billion in market value, with more than $1 billion issued on the XRP Ledger. In December 2025, Ripple received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to charter Ripple National Trust Bank.

On-chain activity is holding up. The XRP Ledger added 7,934 new wallets on November 1, the sixth-highest daily total of 2026. In early November the network activated the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment, which separates minting and burning permissions for issued tokens, a security improvement for stablecoins and tokenized assets.

Supply adds pressure. Ripple’s on-ledger escrow unlocks up to 1 billion XRP on the first of each month, and the company re-locks 60% to 80% of each release. Net escrow reduction has averaged about 221 million XRP a month since 2018, a steady 2% to 4% annual increase in circulating supply. The November 1 release went out on schedule. That dilution weighs on price in a market short of buyers.

The disconnect has clear causes. Much of Ripple’s payments volume does not require holding XRP for long. RLUSD growth is a dollar product, not an XRP product. And partnerships tend to show up in token prices only when the broader crypto market is rising. In a risk-off market, investors sell the liquid asset, XRP, and the ETFs that track it.

For the ETFs, Ripple’s progress supports a long-term floor but does not drive short-term moves. Over weeks, XRPI and XRPR will trade on rates, Bitcoin and ETF flows. Over quarters, the business story could support a recovery once macro conditions improve.

Technical Levels for XRPI and XRPR

XRPI’s chart has two key support levels. The first is Tuesday’s $5.50 low. The second is the $5.42 52-week low, just 2.6% below the after-hours price of $5.56. A daily close below $5.42 would put XRPI at a new low and signal that XRP had broken its own $0.9886 low. On the way up, the first resistance is Tuesday’s $5.72 high, then Monday’s $5.83 close. Above that, $6.00 is a round number.

The upside target for XRPI is $7.00. It corresponds to XRP recovering to about $1.30, the middle of the broken $1.28–$1.31 support zone, using the current price ratio of about 5.39. A move to $7.00 would mean a 23.7% gain from $5.66. XRPI traded near $7.00 in late October, before XRP broke down, so the level marks a full recovery of the November sell-off.

XRPR’s chart mirrors XRPI’s. Support sits at Tuesday’s $8.52 low and the $8.10 52-week low. Resistance begins at the $8.71 high and Monday’s $8.90 close, with $9.00 as a round number above. The upside target for XRPR is $10.60. It corresponds to XRP at about $1.30 using the current ratio of 8.20, and sits close to where XRPR traded in late October, near $10.61.

Both funds share XRP’s technical setup. XRP trades below its hourly 20-period EMA at $1.09, its 50-period at $1.11 and its 200-period at $1.18. A daily XRP close above $1.18 would invalidate the near-term bearish view. That level corresponds to roughly $6.36 in XRPI and $9.68 in XRPR.

Liquidity matters for execution. XRPI is the larger and more liquid of the two, with daily volume often in the hundreds of thousands of shares and a median spread near 0.13% on recent data. XRPR trades less actively. Traders using either fund for short-term moves should use limit orders, especially near the open and close.

Scenarios Into Year-End

Three paths stand out for the funds over the coming weeks. In the bear path, Friday’s PPI comes in hot, the 50bp Fed case gains ground, and Bitcoin breaks below $70,000. XRP slides through $1.00 and the $0.9886 yearly low toward $0.90. XRPI breaks below $5.42 toward $4.85, and XRPR breaks below $8.10 toward $7.40. Spot XRP ETF flows stay flat or turn negative, and the older funds see more outflows.

In the base path, XRP tests the $1.00 to $0.9886 zone and holds on a closing basis. A capitulation dip under $1 that reverses quickly sets a floor. XRP then bounces toward $1.12 and $1.18 as shorts cover. XRPI trades between $5.42 and $6.36, and XRPR between $8.10 and $9.68, into the December 9 FOMC.

In the bull path, the US data cools, with a soft PPI and calmer retail sales, and Fed pricing shifts back toward a single 25bp hike. Bitcoin reclaims $75,451 and pushes toward $80,000. Spot XRP ETFs record their first inflow days in weeks around the November 13 anniversary. XRP clears $1.18 and runs into the $1.26–$1.31 zone. XRPI reaches the $7.00 upside target and XRPR the $10.60 target. A surprise lame-duck CLARITY Act vote would accelerate that move.

The odds favor a test of the lower zone first. Both funds sit within 3% to 6% of their 52-week lows, and XRP’s momentum is still deteriorating. But the payoff from a relief rally, 23.7% for XRPI and 23.1% for XRPR, is larger than the distance to support. That favors waiting for a confirmed reaction at the XRP $1.00 level before adding exposure.

XRP ETF Verdict: Bearish Below XRP $1.18, Upside Targets $7.00 for XRPI and $10.60 for XRPR

XRPI and XRPR are bearish in the near term. XRPI fell 2.92% to $5.66 on Tuesday, hit a session low of $5.50 and slipped to $5.56 after hours, just 2.6% above its $5.42 52-week low and 61.8% below its $14.82 high. XRPR fell 3.26% to $8.61, touched $8.52, and sits 6.3% above its $8.10 low and 59.5% below its $21.28 high. XRP fell to $1.050 after breaking its $1.07502 low, down 19.5% since November 4 and 71% below its all-time high. The October CPI pushed the 2-year Treasury up 19bp to 4.736% and lifted the odds of a 50bp Fed hike to 15%. Bitcoin fell to $73,124, below Strategy’s $75,451 cost basis, and spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on November 9. Spot XRP ETFs logged a $529,500 outflow and four flat sessions last week, with net assets down to $1.34 billion against $1.81 billion of cumulative inflows. The CLARITY Act has stalled, and Warren is expected to chair Senate Banking from January. Both older funds also face structural headwinds. XRPI’s futures roll costs and its fee step-up to 1.15% after the waiver expired, and XRPR’s above-spot fees, leave them exposed to migration toward six cheaper spot XRP ETFs. A daily close below XRP’s $1.00 to $0.9886 zone would push both funds to new 52-week lows. A hold at $1.00, soft US data, a Bitcoin recovery above $75,451 and a return of spot ETF inflows would drive XRP back to the $1.28–$1.31 zone, lifting XRPI to its $7.00 upside target and XRPR to its $10.60 target. A daily XRP close above $1.18, about $6.36 in XRPI and $9.68 in XRPR, would invalidate the bearish view.