XRPI and XRPR XRP ETFs Rebound as $1.3B Flows Clash With a 60% XRP Price Collapse

XRP ETF COMPLEX – XRPI AND XRPR SITTING ON A HEAVY DRAWDOWN WITH GROWING ACCUMULATION SIGNALS

XRPI AND XRPR PRICE ACTION – ETF WRAPPERS NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THEIR RANGE

XRPI ETF on NASDAQ closed around $8.09, up 4.73% on the day from a previous close of $7.72, after trading between $7.86 and $8.16. After-hours priced it near $8.03, about 0.74% off the close. All of this is happening inside a one-year range of $6.50–$23.53, so the current quote sits close to the floor and miles below the high, giving you a high-volatility recovery profile rather than a mature uptrend.
XRPR ETF (REX Osprey XRP ETF) on BATS finished at $11.60, up 4.79%, moving between $11.26 and $11.63 during the session, with a 52-week band of $9.50–$25.99 and average daily volume around 12.67K shares. At $11.60 versus a $25.99 peak, the fund trades at less than half of its own high, mirroring the structural damage you see in XRP-USD. Both ETFs are effectively geared exposure to the same cycle: sharp intraday bounces on top of a deep, unresolved drawdown.

SPOT XRP-USD – 60% DOWN FROM THE $3.65 TOP, NOW FIGHTING TO HOLD THE $1.40–$1.50 BAND

XRP-USD has dropped about 60% from the July 2025 peak near $3.65, with a washout low around $1.11 in early February and recent trading stabilizing in the $1.40–$1.50 zone. Over the last three months the token is still down roughly 37–37.3% despite a violent rebound of about 38%, from roughly $1.12 to around $1.67 after the February 6 crypto crash. By comparison, Bitcoin’s recovery in that same window was around 14%, and Ethereum’s roughly 12%, so XRP-USD is clearly running higher beta on both the downside and the snapbacks. That is exactly what XRPI ETF at $8.09 and XRPR ETF at $11.60 are capturing: high-torque swings around a still-damaged base trend.

EXCHANGE SUPPLY AND WHALE BEHAVIOUR – 3.76 BILLION XRP FALLS TO 1.7 BILLION WHILE BIG HOLDERS ADD 3 BILLION TOKENS

Exchange inventory tells you who is actually stepping in. Tracked balances for XRP-USD on major venues have dropped from roughly 3.76 billion tokens in October 2025 to about 1.7 billion by February 2026, a reduction of roughly 55% in four months. Over the same stretch, large wallets added more than 3 billion XRP, signalling that bigger players are actively increasing exposure while liquid supply on exchanges shrinks.
The nuance is that some analytics only cover around ten exchanges. Separate scanners suggest total exchange holdings could sit closer to 14–16 billion XRP, so the raw “supply shock” story is overstated if you take the small sample as the whole universe. What does matter is the direction: tracked exchange balances have been cut almost in half while whale balances climb by billions. That combination is classic accumulation beneath ugly price action and lines up with ETF inflows into XRPI ETF, XRPR ETF and other XRP ETF products.

DERIVATIVES STRUCTURE – FUNDING AT –0.028% AND OPEN INTEREST DOWN ABOUT 40% FROM DECEMBER PEAKS

Perpetual futures on XRP-USD are now showing stress that usually appears close to inflection points. On Binance, funding slid to around –0.028%, the deepest negative print in about ten months. That level means shorts are paying longs aggressively and the positioning is heavily one-sided. The last comparable cluster of negative funding, around April 2025, came right before XRP-USD ran from roughly $1.60 to about $3.65, an 82% move driven partly by short covering.
Open interest sits in the $2.1–$2.5 billion band, down roughly 40% from December highs. A chunk of the leveraged speculative money that pushed the previous rally has already been flushed out. Combined with deeply negative funding, that structure usually means additional downside needs fresh sellers rather than an automatic cascade of liquidations. For XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF, that translates into continued volatility, but with much of the most aggressive leveraged selling already in the rear-view mirror.

XRP ETF FLOWS – MORE THAN $1.3–$1.37 BILLION CUMULATIVE INFLOWS AND FRESH CAPITAL INTO XRPI AND XRPZ ON DIPS

Flows into XRP ETF products contradict the weakness in spot price. Since mid-November 2025, cumulative net inflows across XRP ETF vehicles have climbed above roughly $1.3–$1.37 billion, helped by a streak of about 35 consecutive positive-flow sessions before a single-day outflow of around $40.8 million on January 7. During the February 2–9 selloff, funds still added about $51 million, even as XRP-USD was coming off a 60% peak-to-trough drawdown and printing roughly –37% over three months.
Drilling into specific wrappers, XRPI ETF took in about $1,264,464 on February 12, lifting assets under management to around $103.7 million; that single day represented roughly 1.22% of fund AUM. Franklin’s XRPZ saw around $737,450 of net inflows on February 13 and now sits near $221.97 million of assets, with that day’s flows equalling roughly 0.33% of AUM. Those numbers are not noise. Investors are clearly using regulated XRP ETF vehicles to accumulate exposure into weakness rather than treating them as exit ramps.

INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING – ROTATION INTO XRP WHILE BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRODUCTS BLEED CAPITAL

Across digital-asset vehicles, the allocation pattern is shifting. One recent week saw about $173 million in net outflows from crypto investment products, extending a four-week redemption streak of roughly $3.74–3.8 billion. Bitcoin-linked funds posted around $133 million of outflows, Ethereum products roughly $85 million, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs alone flirted with around $360 million of net redemptions.
Against that backdrop, flows into XRP ETF products were positive. One week printed roughly $33.4 million of net inflows for XRP ETF vehicles and about $31 million for Solana products. Cumulative XRP ETF inflows punched through the $1.3–$1.6 billion region, with ETF wallets absorbing roughly 750–788 million XRP from exchange float. Large institutions such as Bank of America and major trading firms have disclosed exposure to XRP ETF products in filings, with some reports showing more than $150 million of XRP risk as part of broader crypto allocations. At the same time, Standard Chartered cut its 2026 XRP-USD target from around $8.00 to roughly $2.80, acknowledging both strong ETF demand and a year-to-date price slide of roughly 20%. That type of revision shows how the Street is recalibrating expectations but not abandoning the theme.

MACRO BACKDROP – COMPRESSED BITCOIN DRAWDOWNS, ETF OUTFLOWS AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR XRP VOLATILITY

Every decision around XRP ETF risk rides on the broader crypto cycle. Historical Bitcoin drawdowns across cycles have been in the 87%, 84%, 77% and now roughly 52% range. Some cycle analysts argue that the current drop near 45–52% is not necessarily the final low, pointing instead to a potential base in the $54,000–$55,000 area after a consolidation band between $61,000 and $74,000.
While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are posting redemptions around the $300–$400 million scale and Ethereum products are in net outflow, capital is selective about where it wants to be in crypto. In that type of environment, XRP-USD at $1.40–$1.50 after a 60% drawdown will swing more violently than Bitcoin or Ethereum, and XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF will present magnified daily moves. The positive angle is that the February rebound already showed how upside beta looks: XRP-USD bounced about 38% off the low versus 14% for Bitcoin and 12% for Ethereum. If macro stabilizes, these ETFs will be among the fastest ways for regulated capital to express that risk.

MEDIUM-TERM FUNDAMENTALS TO 2029 – ODL, RLUSD AND REALISTIC PRICE BANDS FOR XRP-USD

Over a five-year horizon into 2029, the core question is not marketing narratives but actual throughput and the role of XRP-USD inside that system. The network’s design targets cross-border payments, and banks already use Ripple’s rails at scale. On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) uses XRP-USD as a bridge asset, converting from one fiat to another without pre-funding accounts. If ODL volumes climb to a meaningful share of global remittance flows, token demand rises with it.
The constraint is adoption. Most banks today tap Ripple’s messaging and settlement technology while ignoring the token. ODL represents only a small slice of total Ripple traffic, and the volatility of XRP-USD is a real issue for treasury desks that need predictability. At the same time, stablecoins now dominate the “bridge asset” niche. Instruments such as USDT, USDC, PYUSD, bank coins and tokenized cash behave like digital dollars with far lower price risk. Ripple itself has moved to launch RLUSD, its own USD-linked stablecoin, and is building custody and infrastructure around that unit. If RLUSD becomes the preferred settlement instrument on Ripple’s rails, a part of the volume that could have gone through XRP-USD will shift to a stablecoin instead.
Reasonable scenario bands reflect that reality. An optimistic case has XRP-USD in the $3–$5 range by 2029, with a higher tail toward $8–$10 if ODL penetration climbs into mid-single-digit or low double-digit percentages of global remittances and ETF assets keep expanding. A central path projects $1.50–$3.00, roughly a 2–4x move from today’s $1.40–$1.50 area, assuming steady but not explosive ODL growth and continued ETF participation. A bearish path keeps XRP-USD under $1, with stablecoins, competing L1s and payment rails capturing most economic value. XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF map directly into those bands, given current prices of $8.09 and $11.60 versus year highs of $23.53 and $25.99.

ETF STRUCTURES AND UPSIDE/ROUTE BACK TO PRIOR HIGHS – HOW XRPI AND XRPR PACKAGE THE THEME

For regulated capital, XRPI ETF, XRPR ETF and other XRP ETF vehicles are the cleanest way to own the theme without dealing with wallets and custody. At roughly $8.09, XRPI ETF has around 190% upside to its $23.53 one-year high, while XRPR ETF at $11.60 has more than 120% upside to the $25.99 peak. Those are not guarantees, they define the payoff if XRP-USD trades back to the upper end of its past range and ETF valuations re-rate.
Embedding the token inside an ETF wrapper also changes the investor base. Instead of pure crypto-native traders, you now see wealth platforms, institutional accounts and hedge funds using XRPI ETF, XRPR ETF and products like XRPZ as vehicles for allocation. Daily flows such as the $1.26 million into XRPI ETF and $737,000 into XRPZ, representing 1.22% and 0.33% of AUM, show that those accounts are still in accumulation mode. As long as that pattern holds, the structure of the investor base supports stability and eventual recovery more than forced liquidation.

CONFIRMATION CHECKLIST – PRICE LEVELS, FLOWS AND MACRO SIGNALS THAT WOULD MARK A DURABLE TURNING POINT

To upgrade the setup from “deep value with accumulation signals” to a confirmed reversal, several boxes need to be ticked at once. On spot price, XRP-USD needs to push above roughly $1.60 and hold that level for more than a brief spike, because that zone marked prior breakdowns and now acts as resistance. Holding above the 20-day moving average around $1.45 with rising daily volume would indicate that new demand is stepping in rather than just shorts closing.
On-chain, tracked exchange balances around 1.7 billion XRP should stay depressed or edge closer to 1.5 billion, with whale holdings continuing to rise, not plateau. On the product side, weekly XRP ETF inflows need to stay firmly positive and preferably above roughly $100 million for a sustained period instead of slipping into repeated outflow weeks. For XRPI ETF, price action needs to hold the $7.50–$8.00 band as support and then begin printing higher highs above $8.50–$9.00. For XRPR ETF, that role falls on the $11.00–$11.20 region first, then the $12.50–$13.00 zone.
Macro confirmation comes from Bitcoin maintaining levels above roughly $70,000 and risk gauges moving out of “extreme fear”. It is rare to see a truly durable bottom in XRP-USD while the broader crypto complex is still derating and ETF money is fleeing Bitcoin and Ethereum.

KEY RISKS – STABLECOIN COMPETITION, RLUSD CANNIBALISATION AND DEEPER MACRO RISK-OFF SCENARIOS

The risk profile around XRP ETF exposure is straightforward and non-trivial. First, there is product competition. Stablecoins now dominate digital settlement flows, and tokenized cash from banks and asset managers is gathering momentum. If USDC, USDT, bank coins and RLUSD become the standard rails for cross-border liquidity, the transactional need for XRP-USD shrinks relative to the size of its fully diluted supply.
Second, the macro path may not cooperate. If Bitcoin eventually trades down toward the $54,000–$55,000 band and stays there, liquidity will retreat from altcoins, and the probability of another leg lower in XRP-USD rises, regardless of encouraging on-chain data. That scenario would push XRPI ETF toward the lower end of its $6.50–$23.53 one-year range and XRPR ETF closer to the $9.50 floor before any recovery.
Third, sentiment around ETFs can flip quickly. A repeat of the $53 million single-day outflow seen in XRP ETF products on January 20, sustained across multiple sessions, would change the narrative from “dip accumulation” to “exit liquidity”. Add the standard regulatory noise and headline risk that surrounds crypto, and you have a set of potential shocks that will keep volatility high across XRPI ETF, XRPR ETF and the wider XRP ETF complex.

POSITIONING VIEW – HIGH-VOLATILITY BUY WITH STRICT SIZING AND PATIENCE ACROSS XRPI AND XRPR

Putting the pieces together – XRP-USD down roughly 60% from $3.65 to the $1.40–$1.50 region, Binance funding near –0.028%, open interest cut by about 40%, tracked exchange supply down around 55%, whales up more than 3 billion XRP, cumulative XRP ETF inflows above $1.3–$1.37 billion, fresh capital of $1.26 million into XRPI ETF and $737,000 into XRPZ, and XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF both trading near the bottom of their one-year ranges – the setup is not neutral.
The structure points to a market that has already absorbed a large part of the forced selling, with regulated products quietly accumulating exposure while headline sentiment stays negative. At the same time, competition from stablecoins and RLUSD, a lower Standard Chartered target near $2.80, and unresolved macro risks around Bitcoin ETF outflows keep the risk side fully alive.
Under that mix, the stance on the XRP ETF complex is Buy, but only for portfolios that can live with sharp drawdowns and long holding periods. At current levels around $8.09 for XRPI ETF and $11.60 for XRPR ETF, the upside back toward prior highs in the low-20s is significant if the on-chain signals, ETF flows and macro environment align, while the remaining downside is increasingly about market-wide risk-off rather than fresh structural collapse specific to XRP.

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