Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD at $113K Faces Powell’s Jackson Hole Test

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC-USD Holds $113K With Pressure From ETF Outflows and Powell’s Jackson Hole Test

BTC-USD Trading Levels and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is currently trading around $113,000–$114,200, after rejecting sharply from its recent all-time high above $124,450 just days ago. The cryptocurrency has lost momentum after breaking below the 50-day moving average at $116,033, which has now flipped into resistance. Traders are watching the $112,000–$112,500 support zone closely, as a decisive break lower could accelerate losses toward $108,000 or even $105,150, while a recovery above $115,000 would open a pathway back toward $117,261 and the next psychological ceiling at $120,900.

The RSI near 44 suggests bearish momentum but with room for oversold conditions, while MACD has entered negative territory. This technical setup shows Bitcoin at a critical junction — either consolidating near $113K before a rebound, or preparing for a deeper test of $110K.

ETF Outflows and Leverage-Driven Liquidations

A key driver behind Bitcoin’s recent weakness is the wave of ETF outflows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $523 million exit in a single day, with Fidelity and Grayscale leading redemptions. This marked the largest daily outflow since June, putting pressure on BTC’s liquidity. At the same time, futures markets exacerbated the drop: more than $2.3 billion in open interest was wiped out, one of the steepest leverage-driven unwinds this year. Over $100 million in long positions were liquidated during the selloff, underlining the role of excessive leverage in Bitcoin’s decline from $124K to the $113K handle.

Despite the pullback, open interest remains elevated at $67 billion, suggesting traders are still heavily positioned and volatility may continue. Historically, such high leverage levels precede sharp moves in either direction, making Powell’s upcoming speech a potential trigger.

Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech: The Decider for BTC-USD

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium has become the defining macro event for risk assets, and Bitcoin is no exception. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak, with markets split on the outlook. If Powell delivers a hawkish message, emphasizing persistent inflation risks, Bitcoin could slide toward $110,000 as dollar strength (DXY recently climbed 3%) weighs on crypto. On the other hand, a dovish tone hinting at imminent cuts — traders currently price a 25bps reduction in September and another in December — could revive demand for BTC, pushing it back to $120K–$124K levels.

Bitcoin’s negative correlation to the U.S. dollar remains strong (-0.76), meaning the Fed’s stance directly impacts price action. Every word from Powell at Jackson Hole has historically rippled through global markets, and this week will be no different for BTC-USD.

Institutional Buying and Corporate Insider-Like Moves

While retail sentiment has turned cautious, institutional players are stepping in. Hong Kong-listed Ming Shing Group Holdings (MSW) announced a $483 million purchase of 4,250 BTC at an average price of $113,638, financed through convertible notes and warrants. This structure — issuing $241.48 million in promissory notes at 3% interest with a 120-month maturity — signals long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s liquidity and price appreciation. The move mirrors insider activity in traditional markets, where companies strategically build positions when retail panic drives prices lower.

Similarly, Japanese firm Metaplanet has now accumulated 18,888 BTC, with its latest acquisition of 775 BTC for $93 million reinforcing Asia’s role in corporate Bitcoin adoption. These treasury moves are effectively corporate “insider buys,” adding a layer of confidence that Bitcoin at $113K is viewed as an accumulation zone by major players.

On-Chain Activity and Whale Accumulation

On-chain data tells a mixed story. Active Bitcoin addresses continue to decline, diverging from the price action. While BTC trades near record highs, network activity remains below peak, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rally. Historically, true bull markets are confirmed by rising active addresses, suggesting broader adoption.

However, whale behavior is tilting bullish. Recent reports show large players accumulating aggressively, including a 200 BTC purchase worth $23 million during the recent dip. Long-term holders (“first buyers”) now control nearly 5 million BTC, signaling a strong accumulation strategy. Analyst Adam Back noted that these pullbacks simply transfer Bitcoin from weak hands to stronger hands, a dynamic consistent with previous bull cycles.

Technical Outlook and Key Price Levels

Technically, Bitcoin is trapped between short-term resistance at $114,000–$115,000 and critical support at $112,000. Exchange order-book data shows dense bid liquidity starting at $112,900, aligning with trader calls for a possible local low around $109,850–$111,900.

If BTC-USD loses the $112K support decisively, the structure weakens, with the next fair-value gap at $104,000, which could serve as a deeper reversal zone. Conversely, reclaiming the 50-day EMA at $116K would shift momentum bullish again, putting $120K and eventually $124K back in play.

Long-Term Forecast: $130K vs. $100K

The bullish case remains alive as long as Bitcoin defends higher lows. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reiterated his bold forecast of $1 million BTC by 2030, framing Bitcoin not as speculation but as a foundational digital asset. In the near term, defending $113K–$110K could set the stage for another run toward $130K, the next psychological target.

Corporate adoption, institutional inflows, and macro conditions (including Powell’s stance) will define the path. For now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads: a breakdown risks a test of $105K, while stabilization above $113K could ignite the next rally.

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