Solana Price Forecast: SOL-USD Slides Under $130 as Whales Buy Into Rising Capitulation Risk

Solana (SOL-USD) Price At A Six-Month Low: Structure Turns Bearish

From $240 Peak To The $124–$132 Stress Zone

Solana (SOL-USD) has flipped from a leader of the late-summer rally to one of the weakest large caps on the board. After topping around $240 last year, price is now compressed in the $124–$132 area, with intraday swings between roughly $124.22 and $134.26, a 24-hour move of about -4.3% and a 7-day loss near -7.6%. The key change is structural: the high-timeframe support around $130 that previously acted as a floor has now failed on a closing basis, which shifts Solana (SOL-USD) into a clean bearish trend structure of lower highs and fragile lows rather than a healthy consolidation.

Whales Buy $14M Spot And $284M In Longs Into Weakness

Despite the breakdown, large players did not abandon Solana (SOL-USD) at these levels. Order-book and large-trade data show whales absorbing more than $14 million in SOL spot over the last three days via Coinbase, Binance, and OKX, while simultaneously opening over $284 million in leveraged long positions. This is not yet “strong demand” in the sense of reversing the trend, but it shows that size is deliberately stepping in while price hovers at a six-month low, treating the current zone as value rather than capitulating with the crowd. The key point: aggressor flow from whales is skewed to the buy side even as the broader market is still reluctant.

RSI, Short-Term Flows And Failed Demand Confirm A Soft Tape

Momentum indicators underline how fragile the spot demand remains. On one side, earlier technical work showed the RSI repeatedly failing to break and hold above the 50 level during prior attempts to recover, flagging a market where each bounce runs out of energy before it can flip trend. On the other side, the newer read of SOL’s RSI around 69 shows a move toward overbought conditions in the middle of a broader downtrend, which historically is where late buyers get trapped if price cannot follow through. Together, this tells a simple story: Solana (SOL-USD) is still being driven by short-term flows and reactive positioning, not by broad, confident accumulation from the wider market.

Stablecoin Liquidity On Solana Hits $16.44B All-Time High

Under the surface, the Solana ecosystem is not behaving like an asset in collapse. The market capitalization of stablecoins on the network has climbed to roughly $16.44 billion, an all-time high. That is fresh liquidity, not legacy residue. It signals that meaningful capital is parked inside the Solana rails, waiting to be deployed into DeFi, NFTs, on-chain trading, or eventually back into SOL itself when risk appetite returns. Liquidity is not the current problem; the issue is the market’s timing and willingness to rotate that stable capital into directional exposure.

Network Usage: 15.65M Active Addresses And 48x Ethereum’s Transaction Count

Activity metrics reinforce the idea that the chain itself is not decaying. Over the latest seven-day window, Solana recorded about 15.65 million active addresses, with weekly activity stabilizing for four consecutive weeks after retreating from higher Q2 2025 peaks. This plateau suggests a new baseline of consistent user engagement rather than a collapse in participation. On top of that, recent figures show Solana’s on-chain transaction count running roughly 48 times higher than Ethereum’s, underlining that the chain remains the preferred venue for high-frequency, low-fee activity even while Solana (SOL-USD) trades heavy.

Net Flow Drops To $111.91M From A $331M Peak: Cautious But Not Dead

The net flow picture is more nuanced. Between December 8 and 14, aggregated net flow on Solana declined to around $111.91 million, compared with a peak of roughly $331 million in the October 6–12 window. That drop validates the shift to caution: less capital is rotating in and out aggressively, and the system is no longer in a high-velocity risk-on phase. But the absolute level is still meaningful. A $100M+ weekly flow range shows that value is still traversing the ecosystem; investors have not walked away, they have simply slowed the pace and tightened risk while macro and crypto-wide volatility remain elevated.

Exchange Netflows Turn Supportive As SOL Leaves Centralized Venues

At the same time, exchange netflow data for Solana (SOL-USD) shows a persistent pattern of outflows exceeding inflows over recent months. Investors are removing SOL from centralized platforms and moving it into self-custody or on-chain venues. That behaviour is classically interpreted as bullish for the medium term, because it reduces immediate sell pressure and indicates holder preference to sit through volatility rather than trade every bounce. The paradox: price is weak while structural supply pressure is quietly easing, which often sets the stage for an eventual violent move once sentiment flips.

Technical Structure: From Falling Wedge Potential To Head-And-Shoulders Risk

The chart currently hosts two competing narratives. One is the falling wedge pattern described in institutional commentary, with Solana (SOL-USD) trading just above $131 and pressing against the upper wedge boundary. If buyers manage a clean breakout with volume, the upside map opens first toward $152, then toward the $160 area flagged by several traders as a reasonable near-term target. The alternative view leans on a larger head-and-shoulders structure stretching from the $240 top as the head, flanked by lower shoulders. On that read, a decisive break and failure to reclaim key neckline and volume levels points toward a measured-move target near $66.20, which represents roughly a 50% drawdown from the $132 area used in that projection. Both views are technically coherent; the deciding factor will be how Solana (SOL-USD) behaves around the same cluster of levels that every desk is watching.

Value Area Low, Point Of Control And The Liquidity Pocket Under $100

From market-profile and volume-profile perspective, Solana (SOL-USD) is trading in a zone that historically produces sharp moves. Price is sitting around the Value Area Low (VAL) of the recent range, and bounces from there have been weak in both amplitude and volume, which is a typical signature of a market running out of committed dip-buyers. At the same time, the asset remains below the Point of Control (POC) of the current structure, meaning it trades under the price area with the highest traded volume and thus outside the recent equilibrium zone. When an asset trades below the POC and fails to reclaim it, markets commonly probe lower-liquidity pockets next. For Solana (SOL-USD), that pocket sits below $100, around prior untested swing lows where stop orders, bid clusters, and resting liquidity have accumulated. This is where a capitulation flush is most likely if the current weakness persists and macro conditions deteriorate further.

ETF Flows: Nearly $1 Billion In Solana Spot ETF AUM

Against that bearish technical backdrop, institutional positioning is quietly improving. Spot Solana ETFs have attracted steady demand, with total assets under management approaching $1 billion since launch. For Solana (SOL-USD), that is significant: it anchors a regulated, slow-money base of capital that is not trading intraday noise, but rather accumulating exposure to the ecosystem’s long-term throughput, fee economics, and developer momentum. Persistent ETF inflows while spot price drifts lower typically compress forward supply, because units must be bought in the market to back new shares. This forms a structural tailwind that does not show up in simple price-only charts.

Analyst Sentiment Split: $66 Bear Targets Versus $152–$160 Bull Targets

Professional and semi-professional trader commentary is now polarised. One side, represented by technicians like Ali Martinez, emphasises the head-and-shoulders layout and targets the $66.20 zone, effectively calling for another ~50% decline from the mid-$130 region examined in that framework. Others, like Crypto Tony, see the current range between roughly $124 and $134 as a playground for short-term range trades, expecting a push toward $134 followed by another leg down, treating every rally as a chance to short rather than accumulate. On the bullish side, traders such as TraderSZ and James map potential pushes toward $152 and above $160, contingent on a successful reclaim of broken support zones and follow-through volume. That spread of targets—from sub-$70 on the downside to $160+ on the upside—captures exactly how conflicted the market is on Solana (SOL-USD) at this stage of the cycle.

Macro, Market Mood And How They Feed Solana’s Next Move

Macro conditions are amplifying the uncertainty around Solana (SOL-USD) rather than calming it. Broader crypto risk assets, including Bitcoin and other large caps, are trading under pressure as markets brace for key US data such as Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI, alongside major central-bank decisions like the Bank of Japan’s anticipated rate move. That combination of macro catalysts keeps volatility premiums elevated and encourages traders to fade rallies rather than chase upside. When the top of the market—Bitcoin and Ethereum—is struggling below major resistance zones, high-beta names such as Solana (SOL-USD) naturally wear a larger share of the downside, especially when their technical structure has already broken key support levels like $130.

Solana (SOL-USD): Bearish Tape, Strong Network, Binary Setup

Putting all of this together, Solana (SOL-USD) is sitting on a binary setup. Price action and classical technicals are clearly bearish: loss of the $130 floor, trading below the POC, repeated weak bounces off Value Area Low, visible liquidity resting under $100, and credible pattern projections pointing toward the $66.20 region if selling accelerates. At the same time, the Solana network itself is printing all-time-high stablecoin liquidity of $16.44 billion, maintaining around 15.65 million weekly active addresses, processing roughly 48x Ethereum’s transaction count, attracting nearly $1 billion into spot Solana ETFs, and drawing steady whale accumulation of $14 million in spot purchases and $284 million in new long positioning over just a few days. The tape says caution; the plumbing says the ecosystem is being quietly funded and used.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Buy, Sell Or Hold Right Now

Given the combination of a broken high-timeframe support, the risk of a liquidity hunt below $100, and the credible head-and-shoulders target near $66.20, the near-term structure for Solana (SOL-USD) is bearish, not neutral. At the same time, the strength of on-chain activity, the $16.44 billion stablecoin base, the dominance in transaction counts, persistent exchange outflows, and almost $1 billion in ETF AUM argue that the underlying network is not in fundamental decline. Balancing those factors, the risk-reward around current levels is asymmetric but still unresolved. On current data and structure, the stance is Hold with a bearish short-term bias: upside exists if Solana (SOL-USD) can reclaim and hold above $130–$135 and then $152–$160, but until that happens, the path of least resistance remains toward testing deeper liquidity below, with the $100 zone as the first serious stress point and $66.20 as the extreme capitulation target on the downside.

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