Bitcoin Holds $105K: Will US-China Talks and CPI Trigger the Next Move Toward $140K?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds the $105K Line as Macro Volatility Brews

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is locked in a critical battle just above the $105,000 mark as macro catalysts stack up this week. The second round of US-China trade talks, scheduled in London, is keeping global markets—including crypto—on edge. BTC-USD currently trades at $105,629 after defending the $104,288 level over the weekend. Investors are closely eyeing the June 11 US CPI report, expected to show inflation accelerating to 2.5%, up from 2.3% last month. A hot CPI print could dent Fed rate cut bets and pressure BTC near-term.

BTC-USD Faces Tug-of-War Between Corporate Buyers and Macro Uncertainty

Despite this week’s looming risks, corporate Bitcoin adoption is gathering steam. The Blockchain Group is set to raise €300 million—and may lift this to €500 million—to fund BTC purchases via an at-the-market issuance backed by TOBAM. French regulators have already approved this expansion plan, with the shareholder vote scheduled for June 10. Meanwhile, Japanese giant Metaplanet raised ¥771 billion (~$5.4 billion) to fund its aggressive target of acquiring 210,000 BTC by 2027. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) Chairman Michael Saylor hinted at fresh purchases with his iconic “Send more Orange” post, further fanning bullish sentiment.

BTC-USD Technicals Signal Possible $140K Target—But $100K Is Key Support

Bitcoin’s technical posture is delicately balanced. BTC-USD is forming a bullish cup-and-handle pattern with a breakout target near $143,000. A secondary bull flag pattern also projects gains toward $143,300 if confirmed. The key resistance to clear is $106,794, last week’s high. A sustained move above this level could trigger momentum toward $111,980, the all-time high.

However, risks remain. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 54, and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is on the verge of a bullish crossover but has not yet confirmed upside momentum. Support at $104,288 must hold, or BTC-USD could revisit its 50-day EMA at $101,499. A decisive break below $100,000 would expose liquidity pockets and risk a deeper correction toward the $95,000 bull market support band flagged by traders like Daan Crypto Trades.

Trade Talks, Inflation Data Could Trigger Near-Term Volatility

The US-China trade narrative is evolving fast. After a positive call between Presidents Trump and Xi, tariffs were paused for 90 days in May, helping BTC-USD recover. But fresh tensions around rare-earth exports, semiconductor restrictions, and student visas cloud this week’s meeting. A sour outcome could spark flight to cash, pressuring BTC-USD.

Meanwhile, inflation expectations are climbing. Economists see core CPI rising to 2.9% YoY, while PPI is forecast to accelerate to 2.6%. If inflation surprises to the upside, BTC-USD could initially sell off as Fed cut bets are repriced. However, strong inflation has historically driven Bitcoin adoption as a hedge—corporate buyers may step in on dips.

Derivatives Market Shows Cautious Tone as Implied Volatility Drops

BTC derivatives positioning reflects the market’s wait-and-see stance. At-the-money (ATM) implied volatility has eased, signaling reduced expectations of explosive near-term moves. Traders appear wary of taking large directional bets ahead of the CPI release and FOMC meeting later this month. A volatility spike post-CPI could break this calm decisively.

Bitcoin’s Path Forward: Corporate Demand vs. Macro Risks

What keeps BTC-USD supported is relentless corporate demand. Metaplanet’s $5.4B raise and The Blockchain Group’s €300-500M buying plan mirror the MicroStrategy playbook. As more companies adopt the Bitcoin treasury strategy, supply on exchanges tightens—bullish over the long term.

Yet, macro risks remain. If US-China talks collapse or CPI derails rate cut hopes, BTC-USD could test sub-$100K levels quickly. Conversely, a dovish CPI and positive trade headlines could propel BTC toward its $140K technical targets in coming weeks.

Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Is a Hold with Bullish Bias Above $100K

Given the current mix of corporate accumulation and macro uncertainty, BTC-USD remains a Hold for now. Bulls must defend $100,000 decisively to avoid a deeper shakeout. A break above $106,794 opens the door to $111K, then $140-143K targets flagged by multiple technical patterns. Traders should monitor US-China talks and CPI closely this week, as these events will set the tone for BTC’s next major move.

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