EUR/USD Price Forecast: Can the Euro Clear 1.1900 as Dollar Momentum Fades Below 97?

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Dollar pause vs Euro support at 1.18–1.19

EUR/USD – Macro backdrop and US data shock

The latest US labor report delivered a clear upside surprise and set the tone for EUR/USD. Non-farm payrolls rose by 130,000 jobs versus expectations around 70,000, and the unemployment rate slipped from 4.4% to 4.3%. That combination confirms a still-tight labor market and explains why futures now price roughly a 94% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the next meeting instead of entertaining near-term cuts. Under normal conditions, a 130K print and a 4.3% unemployment rate would be a straightforward positive for the Dollar. This time the reaction is muted, because weaker US retail sales and cautious official commentary offset part of the labor strength. The Dollar Index is trading near 96.80 rather than pressing new highs, so the macro picture supports the Dollar but does not give it a one-way trend, which is why EUR/USD remains trapped in a relatively tight range instead of collapsing.

EUR/USD – Structure around 1.1880 and the 1.18–1.19 band

On the technical side, EUR/USD is pinned around 1.1880, right on top of a rising trendline that has guided price action since the move off the 1.1600 low. That trendline coincides with a flat 50-period moving average sitting almost exactly at current spot, while the 200-period moving average is parked lower near 1.1780. The last move down pushed price briefly through former support at 1.1887 and found a floor at 1.1833, effectively building a double-bottom in the 1.1830–1.1850 area before recovering back toward 1.1880. Recent candles in this zone show small bodies and long wicks, which is typical when momentum is fading at resistance but dip-buyers are still defending the structure. As long as the pair holds above the 1.1833 low and the 1.1806 and 1.1766 backup supports, the entire 1.18–1.19 range is acting as a consolidation band inside a broader bullish structure rather than a topping pattern.

EUR/USD – Critical pivot at 1.1887 and breakout zone at 1.1900

The most important short-term level is the 1.1887–1.1893 cluster. Earlier in the week that area acted as a floor; after the break lower it flipped into a ceiling. Now EUR/USD is oscillating exactly around that pivot. The market has already shown that once 1.1887 fails, 1.1833 is where buyers step in; when 1.1833 holds, price quickly gravitates back to 1.1880–1.1890. This behavior confirms that the 1.1887 area is not just a random tick level but a genuine pivot. The key question is whether the pair can sustain a move above 1.1900. A clean push through 1.1900 with solid hourly closes and without heavy upper wicks would signal that the last Dollar spike has been fully absorbed and that EUR/USD is ready to target higher resistances rather than simply rotating inside the 1.1830–1.1890 channel.

EUR/USD – Upside map toward 1.1949–1.1986

If EUR/USD can establish itself above 1.1900, the next reference points are already defined by prior highs and strategy levels. The first upside magnet sits at 1.1949, which is a logical initial target once 1.1900 gives way. That band has been highlighted as a sensible take-profit zone for longs leaning on the current trendline, and it coincides with prior congestion on the way down. Above 1.1949, the next resistance sits around 1.1975, with an extension toward 1.1980–1.1986. That 1.1975–1.1986 area is effectively the last barrier before the market starts talking about 1.2000 again. A controlled grind from 1.1900 to 1.1949 followed by a measured extension to the 1.1980s would transform the current 1.1833–1.1900 consolidation into a clear base structure. In that scenario, the move off 1.1600 evolves into a higher-low sequence, and 1.1833 becomes a reference support rather than a soft floor at risk of breaking.

EUR/USD – Downside risk levels at 1.1833, 1.1806 and 1.1766

The bullish bias only holds as long as certain floors are respected. The first one is exactly where the last defense line stood: 1.1833. That low has already functioned as a stopping point after the drop from above 1.1887. If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1833 and starts closing underneath it, it signals that the market is no longer willing to defend the current trendline with the same conviction and that recent buyers around 1.1850 have lost control. Below 1.1833, attention shifts to 1.1806. That level is the next point where profit taking on short positions is likely, and where fresh dip-buyers may attempt to step in again. If 1.1806 does not hold, 1.1766 becomes the critical downside pivot. That 1.1766–1.1780 region, where price would meet the 200-period moving average, marks the boundary between a healthy correction within the uptrend and a more serious trend change. A move into 1.1766–1.1780 would represent a full mean-reversion of the latest rally; a daily close below that band would indicate that the structure from 1.1600 is starting to fail and would open space for a deeper retracement back toward the mid-1.16s.

DXY – 96.34–97.25 consolidation and implications for EUR/USD

The Dollar Index behavior explains why EUR/USD is not breaking decisively despite the stronger US job numbers. DXY has already absorbed a sharp slide from the 98.80 region down to a base around 95.55. From that low it has carved out higher troughs but is failing to retest the prior high, with price fluctuating around 96.80. The 50-period moving average is sloping down and acting as resistance near 97.21, while the 200-period moving average sits higher at 97.90. Horizontal resistance is visible around 97.25, and horizontal support holds near 96.34. That build-up means DXY is trapped in a 96.34–97.25 consolidation channel even after a 130K NFP print and a 4.3% unemployment rate. While the index remains inside that band, Dollar strength is conditional rather than dominant. For EUR/USD, this means that a clean DXY breakout above 97.25 and a move toward 97.98–98.80 would be needed to force the pair through 1.1833 and down toward 1.1806 or 1.1766. As long as DXY fails to hold above 97.25 and especially if it slips back below 96.34, the environment favors EUR/USD holding or regaining the 1.1900 handle instead of sliding into a sustained downtrend.

GBP/USD – Cross-check on Dollar strength and European FX

Price action in GBP/USD reinforces the view that the Dollar currently lacks a clear trend extension. Sterling against the Dollar is trading around 1.3647, lodged inside a narrowing triangle pattern. The pair rebounded earlier from 1.3510 and is now boxed between a downward sloping resistance line and an upward sloping support line, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3635 acting as a center of gravity. The 50-period moving average is flat and cutting directly through current price, while the 200-period moving average sits just below around 1.3560. If the Dollar were breaking higher in a decisive way, GBP/USD would not be compressing at 1.3647; it would be sliding through 1.3635 and moving toward 1.3580 and 1.3510. Instead, the pair is waiting for US CPI and further signals from the Fed, similar to EUR/USD holding a trendline at 1.1880. This cross-check across European FX confirms that the Dollar’s rally on the back of 130K payrolls and 4.3% unemployment is real but not powerful enough yet to generate a one-directional move before the next macro catalyst.

EUR/USD – Tactical stance and directional bias above 1.1830

With EUR/USD trading around 1.1880, the picture is clear in terms of risk levels and objectives. On the supportive side stand the rising trendline from 1.1600, the 1.1833 low, the 1.1806 backup floor, and the 1.1766–1.1780 band where the 200-period moving average sits. On the resistance side, the market is focused on 1.1887–1.1893 as the pivot, 1.1900 as the breakout trigger, then 1.1949 as the first upside objective and 1.1975–1.1986 as the extended target zone. The macro backdrop combines a 130,000 payroll gain, 4.3% unemployment and a 94% probability of an unchanged Fed, with DXY stuck around 96.80 inside a 96.34–97.25 band. Taken together, that structure favors a buy-biased stance on EUR/USD above 1.1830, looking for a break of 1.1900 and a move into 1.1949 and potentially the 1.1975–1.1986 region, as long as DXY does not break and hold above 97.25. Only a daily close below 1.1806, and especially below the 1.1766–1.1780 cluster, would justify flipping the bias to a sell view and preparing for a deeper retracement back toward the 1.1600 area.

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