Bitcoin Hovers at $109,500: Can BTC-USD Rally Past $112K on ETF Inflows and CPI Momentum?

Bitcoin Price Holds $109,500 As Traders Brace For CPI Catalyst

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $109,500 on Wednesday, maintaining its strong upward trajectory after a sharp 4.28% rally at the start of the week. This move puts BTC just 2.2% below its May 22 record high of $111,980. The risk-on environment, fueled by progress in US-China trade talks and growing institutional demand, continues to support bullish momentum in crypto markets. With the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due later today, Bitcoin’s next move could hinge on inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy response.

US-China Trade Breakthrough Drives Risk Appetite As Bitcoin Targets $112K

The US and China reached a key framework to ease trade tensions after two days of talks in London. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed both sides agreed to roll back export curbs on rare earth minerals and advanced technologies. This development sparked a global rally, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite near record highs while driving Bitcoin’s surge toward $110,000. BTC-USD rose 4.2% Monday on the trade news and remains well supported by the positive shift in sentiment.

Bitcoin Eyes CPI Report As Key Trigger For Next Price Leg

Market attention now turns to today’s CPI print. Consensus forecasts expect headline inflation to climb to 2.5% from 2.3% in April. A hotter-than-expected reading could weigh on Bitcoin by strengthening the US dollar and tempering Fed rate cut bets. Conversely, a soft CPI could trigger renewed USD weakness and drive fresh flows into risk assets, lifting BTC-USD back toward its record high. Given Bitcoin’s strong correlation with equities this year, CPI data could set the tone for near-term crypto price action.

Technical Indicators Signal More Upside For Bitcoin

BTC-USD found robust support last week at its 50-day EMA near $101,000 and reclaimed the $106,406 resistance on Monday. With current prices hovering around $109,500, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 signals solid bullish momentum. The MACD posted a bullish crossover on Tuesday, reinforcing the buy signal. If BTC-USD extends its rally, a retest of $111,980 looks likely. Should BTC face selling pressure, the $106,406 level remains key support to monitor.

K33 Research: Market Positioning Supports Higher Bitcoin Prices

A K33 Research report notes that current market positioning favors further BTC upside. Funding rates on Binance BTC perpetuals remain negative, averaging 1.3% annualized over the past week — a level historically associated with local bottoms, not tops. The report argues that risk aversion in derivatives markets points to healthy rally conditions. With defensive positioning and strong institutional inflows, BTC-USD appears poised for continuation higher.

Institutional Demand For Bitcoin Accelerates As ETFs Attract Inflows

Institutional appetite for Bitcoin is intensifying. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $431.12 million of inflows Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of strong demand. These flows signal that institutional investors remain committed to Bitcoin as a macro hedge and store of value, despite short-term volatility. With over $120 billion now managed by Bitcoin ETFs, institutional demand is playing an increasingly dominant role in driving BTC-USD’s price trajectory.

Bernstein Reaffirms $200K Bitcoin Target As Institutionalization Gathers Pace

Analysts at Bernstein maintain a $200,000 target for BTC-USD this cycle, viewing the institutionalization of Bitcoin through ETFs as a structural driver of price appreciation. They estimate that Bitcoin would need to rally 82.7% from current levels to hit this target. Bernstein sees the $200K projection as conservative given accelerating adoption trends and growing recognition of BTC’s role in the future of finance.

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin Headed For $1 Million Amid Shrinking Supply

Michael Saylor remains even more bullish, projecting BTC-USD could reach $1 million. He cites a supply-demand imbalance, noting that miners now release just 450 BTC daily (~$50 million). With ETF inflows and sovereign purchases absorbing nearly all available supply, Saylor argues that Bitcoin’s price must rise significantly over time. Strategy alone holds 582,000 BTC, now worth nearly $63.85 billion, underscoring the scale of institutional accumulation.

BTC Market Dynamics Show Healthy Setup For Further Gains

K33 highlights that negative funding rates, low leverage, and strong ETF flows create a constructive setup for BTC-USD. These dynamics suggest that Bitcoin is not yet in euphoric territory and retains room to run. Historical patterns show that BTC tends to rally when derivatives markets are defensive and institutional spot demand is robust — both conditions now in place.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Could Propel BTC Toward $112K And Beyond

With $431 million of ETF inflows Tuesday and over $120 billion now parked in BTC ETFs, institutional demand is set to remain a key driver. As this trend continues, BTC-USD could soon break its $111,980 record and target new all-time highs. If ETF inflows accelerate further or dovish CPI surprises the market, BTC-USD’s path toward $120K and above could unfold swiftly.

Trump Tariffs, Sovereign Buying Add To Bullish Case For Bitcoin

Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical tensions continue to drive global demand for Bitcoin as a portfolio hedge. Recent moves by Pakistan to create a BTC reserve echo this trend. Meanwhile, BlackRock and other ETF providers continue daily BTC accumulation. As supply tightens and sovereign interest grows, structural support for BTC-USD’s long-term bull case strengthens.

BTC-USD Poised For Breakout As Institutional Demand And Technicals Align

With BTC-USD trading at $109,500, just 2% below its record, the stage is set for potential breakout. Technical indicators remain bullish, institutional ETF flows are surging, and market positioning favors further upside. As CPI data and trade headlines continue to shape macro sentiment, Bitcoin remains well positioned to retest $111,980 and advance toward $120,000 in the coming weeks.

Final Verdict: BTC-USD Is A Buy

Based on strong ETF inflows, bullish technical signals, healthy market positioning, and growing institutional and sovereign demand, BTC-USD is a clear BUY at current levels. If CPI data proves benign and ETF flows persist, BTC-USD is likely to break above $112K and target new highs. Near-term support rests at $106,406, with upside targets at $111,980 and $120,000+. The risk-reward remains favorable for continued accumulation.

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