Bitcoin Price Climbs to $115K With Fed Cut and BTC-USD ETF Demand in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Climbs Back Above $115,000 as Derivatives and Institutional Demand Drive Next Test

BTC-USD Holds $115,000 With Resistance at $116,000–$121,000

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has staged a rebound, rising 1.5% over the last 24 hours to $115,400 after testing resistance near $116,000. That threshold is emerging as the key pivot for short-term direction: above it lies a dense supply zone stretching toward $121,000. On the downside, heavy bids are visible around $114,700, while deeper support sits at $113,500–$112,000, in line with the 100-day SMA. A break below could expose the recent low near $107,200 from early September. The rebound coincides with U.S. inflation data showing a 0.4% MoM CPI increase, while weekly jobless claims surged to 263,000 — the highest since 2021 — fueling Fed cut expectations.

Options and Futures Point to Structural Support

The derivatives market is anchoring the rally. Options open interest hit a record $54.6 billion, up 26% since September 1, with a clear bias toward calls. Futures data shows recovering delta volume, signaling exhaustion from sellers who had pressed BTC down to $108,000 earlier in the month. Liquidation heatmaps identify clusters between $116,400 and $117,000 — a breakout there could trigger a short squeeze toward $120,000. Conversely, failure to clear this range risks renewed pressure as open interest remains skewed toward downside protection with a 1.31 put-to-call ratio ahead of the $4.3 billion BTC and ETH options expiry.

Institutional and Corporate Buying Intensifies

Flows from ETFs and treasuries have bolstered spot demand. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.7 billion in net inflows this week, the strongest since July. On the corporate side, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) added 1,955 BTC for $217.4 million, bringing its holdings to 638,460 coins. Japanese firm Metaplanet acquired 136 BTC, lifting its stash to 20,136, while Hong Kong’s QMMM pledged $100 million toward a new digital asset treasury. These moves counterbalance doubts sparked by S&P’s rejection of MicroStrategy’s inclusion in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) — a signal that index committees remain wary of treating Bitcoin treasuries as mainstream balance sheet assets. Still, BTC itself is outperforming: up nearly 24% YTD versus MSTR’s 8.6%.

Macro Catalysts Reinforce Risk Appetite

Macro data continues to swing in Bitcoin’s favor. The U.S. Producer Price Index dropped to 2.6% YoY from 3.1%, suggesting domestic demand is softening even as tariffs raise import costs. With CPI steady at 2.9% and labor data weakening, Fed futures price in a 94% chance of a 25 bps cut next week and even a 7% chance of a larger 50 bps move. The dollar index (DXY) sits at 97.8, weaker on the week, while gold (GC=F) trades near $3,686, just below record highs. Lower yields and easing liquidity conditions are historically bullish for BTC, and correlations with risk assets remain tight as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) hover at record highs.

On-Chain Data Highlights Strong Liquidity Backdrop

Binance stablecoin reserves have climbed to a record $39 billion after $6.2 billion of inflows in a single day. That liquidity represents “dry powder” waiting to be deployed into crypto markets. Despite lingering FUD, sentiment indicators show traders turning more defensive, which historically has marked accumulation zones. Glassnode reports BTC is stabilizing above the $111,000 short-term holder cost basis, with reduced sell pressure and balanced options positioning. RSI on the daily chart sits at 56, showing momentum turning positive, while weekly RSI at 59 signals room to extend gains. However, the MACD remains in a bearish crossover from early September, flagging risks of pullbacks if resistance caps price action.

Asia Joins the Rally as Bitcoin Tops 160M Won

In Korea, BTC broke back above ₩160 million ($115,000) on Upbit, reaching ₩161.5 million overnight. Local demand has been spurred by Fed easing expectations and stagflation worries, echoing the global narrative. Crypto-linked equities surged in parallel: stablecoin issuer Circle jumped 17.6% and mining giant Bitmain added 4.8%. The synchronized rally across digital assets and related equities underscores how Fed policy is reviving global risk-on flows into crypto.

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