BTC-USD Flirts With $110K As Liquidity Zones and Macro Forces Collide
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to $110,280, climbing 2.38% in 24 hours, triggering fresh market speculation as traders watch key resistance at $112,000. Despite the sharp move from sub-$100K levels in late June, the spot price is confronting a convergence of structural resistance, cooling demand, and speculative overextension. Data from CoinGlass shows $520.31 million in short liquidations concentrated at the $111,320 level — a hotspot that could serve as the catalyst for an explosive short squeeze.
Funding rate dynamics reinforce this risk. After turning negative in late June — a historically bullish setup — Bitcoin’s perpetual futures rate flipped positive again, echoing similar scenarios in September 2024 and July 2023, when BTC surged 80% and 150% respectively post-reset.
Perpetual Funding Flip Signals Imminent Price Acceleration
Late June marked a crucial moment for BTC futures markets as the 7-day moving average of funding rates dipped below zero, incentivizing long traders while punishing short positions. The signal resembles past regime shifts, when bearish positioning collapsed under rising spot prices. This isn’t just a chart quirk — it's a structural imbalance.
The restoration of positive funding over the past 48 hours, in parallel with rising open interest to $34.5 billion, suggests that bearish momentum has exhausted and a short squeeze is now back on the table. If BTC successfully taps the $111K liquidation band, a sharp cascade higher becomes highly probable.
Bull Flag Technical Breakout Points to $117,500
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a clean breakout above a defined bull flag pattern. The flagpole-measured move targets a run toward $117,500, which closely matches a $116,000 forecast published by Markus Thielen of 10x Research. Historically, similar flag breakouts have yielded mid-teen to 20% moves in BTC when coupled with short liquidation triggers and macro tailwinds.
Momentum indicators agree: the RSI on the daily is trending at 59, in a bullish-but-not-overheated zone. However, on shorter timeframes — 1-hour and 4-hour — RSI levels are entering exhaustion, warning of near-term volatility.
Retail Euphoria and Negative Spot Delta Create Volatility Setup
While sentiment is surging, spot demand hasn’t followed. Swissblock Technologies reported that net spot buying remains negative even as BTC pierced $110K intraday. This divergence reflects a leverage-driven rally with little organic demand beneath it — a precarious combination.
Santiment data shows retail sentiment has spiked into “greed” territory at a reading of 73 on its index. This level typically precedes pullbacks, as institutional players fade FOMO-driven price action. The last time this happened in May, Bitcoin fell 9.2% within four sessions.
BTC Consolidates Near Cycle Pivot With Resistance at $110,545
Chart resistance is forming between $110,300 and $110,545, with immediate support clustered at $107,770 and $106,685. Failure to break higher could trap longs, especially those entering on leverage. Cointelegraph Markets Pro confirms a lower-high structure forming on the hourly, signaling consolidation unless spot buyers return.
RSI heatmaps across six timeframes show overbought conditions in four, indicating that BTC is near exhaustion on a multi-session basis. This doesn’t preclude further gains but introduces higher short-term risk.
ETF Inflows Mixed as Institutional Whales Accumulate
Despite near-term caution, institutional players continue absorbing supply. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust added $3.85 billion in BTC during June alone, while Strategy reportedly scooped up an additional $64 billion. This is offset somewhat by $342 million in spot ETF outflows on Tuesday, suggesting a selective rather than broad institutional bid.
On-chain analytics also show $1.33 billion in weekly BTC exchange outflows — consistent with accumulation trends. However, in China, a 1% USDT discount vs. yuan reflects weak demand, the largest arbitrage dislocation since May.
Halving Narrative Returns as 2025 Q3 Kicks In
Historical price cycles show that Q3 of post-halving years typically mark breakout quarters for Bitcoin. With the 2025 halving in the rearview, macro alignment may finally catch up to the cycle map. If BTC sustains above $108,740 and triggers a short liquidation band, the projected upside could stretch toward $143,000, per bullish Elliott Wave analysis from Rosenberg Research.
Still, low July volumes are a seasonal drag. K33 Research notes that July accounts for just 6.1% of annual spot volume, historically the quietest month of the year. That’s a problem for breakout narratives without real buyer support.
Tech and Politics Shape BTC’s New Era of Centralized Influence
Beyond price, Bitcoin is becoming entangled in political power. Trump’s World Liberty Financial is reshaping the regulatory playing field, backed by figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk. Simultaneously, 51% attacks are no longer just theoretical for major coins — the mining concentration across six pools now controls over 80% of BTC's hashrate.
In this evolving market, democracy vs. plutocracy is becoming a central theme. The growing control of price and narrative by billionaire interests risks displacing Bitcoin’s decentralization ethos. European regulators are lagging behind this dynamic, with MiCAR still struggling to counterbalance rising U.S. dominance.
BTC Faces Political Catalysts: Trump’s Budget Bill and Executive Order Deadlines
The next phase of Bitcoin’s path may hinge less on charts and more on Capitol Hill. Trump’s budget megabill, tariff restructuring, and an impending crypto executive order deadline all land in mid-July. The intersection of political noise and Bitcoin's historical breakout period adds complexity to positioning.
Should regulatory news align with rising liquidity demand, BTC could catapult beyond current highs. But if political risk, ETF outflows, and lackluster spot buying persist, a retest of $107K–$105K zones remains likely.
