Bitcoin Price Eyes $125K Breakout as Fed Pivot, ETF Inflows, and Trump Boost Bulls

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Edges Near All-Time High Amid Fed Pivot Expectations

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is consolidating just below its record intraday high of $123,166, with current trading around $121,100, representing a +1.43% gain over 24 hours. The technical structure remains bullish, reinforced by a breakout from a prior descending channel and confirmation of higher lows. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages just crossed to the upside on the daily chart, supporting continued upward momentum.

More importantly, a string of macro tailwinds is aligning at once. The U.S. July CPI print of +2.7% y/y came in slightly below expectations, triggering a sharp repricing in Fed Funds Futures. As of Wednesday, markets now assign a 96% probability to a 25 bps rate cut in September, with rising odds for a larger 50 bps move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on BTC/USD reads 63, signaling bullish but not overbought conditions.

BTC Institutional Demand Surges As ETF Inflows Top $1 Billion

Demand from institutions is entering an aggressive phase. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs brought in $1 billion in net inflows over just five sessions, according to CoinGlass. BlackRock’s IBIT alone added the majority, lifting its total assets under management (AUM) to $58.07 billion. Total ETF Bitcoin exposure now exceeds $153 billion.

This capital inflow has proven especially potent given Bitcoin’s limited daily issuance of roughly 450 BTC. Capriole Investments calculates that institutional “excess demand” this week reached 600% of new BTC supply. Treasury accumulation is also surging: corporate wallets added 810 BTC on Tuesday, and nearly 3,000 BTC on Monday.

K33 Research reports that Norway's sovereign wealth fund (NBIM) now has 7,161 BTC in indirect exposure via its equity stakes in BTC-heavy firms, highlighting how institutional exposure is growing unintentionally across diversified portfolios.

Trump Policy Shock Opens $9 Trillion Retirement Capital to Crypto

A powerful fundamental catalyst arrived via U.S. President Donald Trump, who signed an executive order permitting 401(k) retirement accounts to allocate into alternatives like cryptocurrency and private equity. This single policy decision theoretically opens up over $9 trillion in retirement capital to Bitcoin and digital assets.

Trump also renewed his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating the Fed has "damaged the economy by being too late" and hinting he may pursue legal action against Powell. His call to slash rates was echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who urged a 50 bps cut in September, and suggested the Fed should move toward 150 bps total easing in the current cycle.

Such overt political pressure increases the probability of a dovish pivot, reinforcing the appeal of Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat instability and policy capture.

Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) Gains Traction as L2 Infrastructure Play

One of the emerging narratives is the rise of Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a project developing a Layer-2 solution to address Bitcoin's well-known scaling limitations. While BTC handles just 7 transactions per second, HYPER uses a Solana-based architecture to bring high-throughput capabilities to Bitcoin’s base layer.

Currently trading at $0.012675, HYPER has raised $9 million in its presale. The project is drawing institutional and retail attention as a proxy investment for BTC infrastructure without exposure to the underlying asset's volatility.

The platform aims to launch DeFi protocols, tokenized assets, and payments on Bitcoin’s chain via its Canonical Bridge and SVM execution layer. With institutional accumulation rising and Ethereum competitors seeking yield-bearing assets, HYPER positions itself as a next-gen scalability layer for the world’s most secure blockchain.

Technical Structure: BTC Faces $123K Breakout or Rejection

Bitcoin remains in a sharp ascending channel. The immediate resistance at $123,000 is critical. A daily close above it could trigger price discovery mode toward $125,000 and possibly $137,000, the next Fibonacci extension target. Conversely, if bulls fail to clear $123K, the first support zone lies around $116,000, near the lower trendline and 100-day MA.

The MACD just flashed a bullish crossover, while the RSI on the 4-hour chart stays above 50, indicating continuation potential. Notably, this BTC rally is being driven by spot demand, not leveraged speculation – open interest has actually declined while prices rose, a healthy sign.

Ethereum, Solana, and Altcoins Outpace Bitcoin, But Spotlight Remains on BTC

Ethereum (ETH-USD) surged to $4,693.53 (+8.18%), now just 6% below its ATH. Solana (SOL-USD) jumped over 12% to $201.44, and XRP (XRP-USD) sits at $3.28, rising 2.88%.

Still, Bitcoin’s dominance remains crucial. While ETH and SOL outperform in percentage terms, it is BTC’s liquidity, institutional inflows, and policy-driven tailwinds that define the macro structure.

Bitcoin vs Gold: Store-of-Value Momentum Tilts to BTC

Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up 28%, nearly identical to Gold’s 2025 performance. But momentum has clearly shifted. With BTC nearing a breakout and policy winds favoring digital over physical stores of value, many asset allocators are repositioning. Several wealth managers have noted that Bitcoin's correlation to stocks has weakened, while its correlation to monetary expectations has strengthened.

BTC is now being treated as a modern monetary hedge, not just a risk asset. The gap between its capped supply and global liquidity remains a key driver.

Corporate Treasury Participation at Record Highs

The strategic acquisition of BTC by public companies continues to accelerate. GameStop (GME), Strategy (MSTR), and newly active entities like ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences) are adding billions in BTC and ETH to their treasuries. ETHZilla now holds $350 million in ETH and $240 million in cash, a move that has sent its stock price up 432% this week alone.

Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a strategic asset rather than a speculative one, especially as debt-driven fiat systems come under scrutiny.

Verdict: BTC-USD is a BUY with Caution Near $123K Resistance

Verdict: BUY, with tight stops.

Target levels: $125,000 (first breakout target), $137,000 (extended). Risk level: Moderate. A daily close below $116K invalidates short-term bullish bias.

Supporting data:

• CPI y/y: +2.7% (vs. 2.8% est)

• Fed cut probability: 96% for Sept

• ETF inflows: $1B in 5 days

• Institutional demand: 600% > supply

• Corporate treasury buys: 3,800 BTC this week

Bitcoin remains the fastest horse in a macro regime increasingly defined by liquidity, rate cycles, and scarcity. Until the Fed breaks dovish momentum or spot demand dries up, the path of least resistance remains higher.

That's TradingNEWS