Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Consolidates at $115K After Volatile Week

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds Above $115K After Volatile Week

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) finished the week trading around $115,400, consolidating after an intense stretch that saw highs above $124,500 and lows near $111,600. The week’s swings were driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole, new ETF flow data, and shifting derivatives positioning. Market capitalization sits at roughly $2.29 trillion, with 24-hour volumes near $48 billion, underscoring heightened activity despite waning whale demand.

Powell’s Comments Fuel Risk Appetite and Crypto Gains

Powell’s acknowledgment that rate cuts could arrive as early as September reignited demand for risk assets. Bitcoin climbed nearly 4.2% in 24 hours immediately after the speech, trading near $117,200 before stalling. A weaker dollar and the prospect of lower yields historically benefit Bitcoin, and this time was no exception. However, altcoins reacted more aggressively: Ethereum (ETH-USD) surged 14% to $4,789, XRP (XRP-USD) gained 6.4% to $3.02, and Solana (SOL-USD) rallied over 9% to $203. Bitcoin’s slower pace relative to ETH highlighted diverging capital flows.

BTC Struggles Against $117K–$118K Resistance

Technically, Bitcoin remains locked in a key battle zone. Resistance around $117,500–$118,000 has capped rallies three times in as many sessions. Coinglass data reveals more than $3 billion in short positions stacked near $117,800, forming a resistance cluster. These leveraged shorts are deliberately defending the level, preventing BTC from retesting $120K. On the downside, immediate support lies at $113,500, followed by the $111,600–$112,000 zone, which has repeatedly triggered rebounds.

Derivative Metrics Show Positive Bias but Fragile Momentum

Funding rates remain positive across major exchanges, reflecting a bullish tilt. Open interest in Bitcoin futures stands above $12 billion, but leverage is concentrated near resistance levels. The RSI on the daily chart hovers around 50, suggesting neutrality, while the ADX sits at 17, signaling weak trend strength. Momentum oscillators, including the MACD and Awesome Oscillator, indicate short-term bearish divergence, pointing to exhaustion unless BTC clears the $117,500 ceiling with conviction.

ETF Flows and Whale Activity Weigh on Sentiment

Institutional flows have not confirmed retail optimism. Bitcoin ETFs logged six straight days of outflows, shedding $1.2 billion since August 15. Friday alone saw $23 million in withdrawals. By contrast, Ethereum ETFs attracted over $330 million in inflows, highlighting a clear investor rotation. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index fell to its lowest reading since August 1, showing muted demand from U.S. institutional buyers. Without whale accumulation or ETF support, Bitcoin’s upside momentum remains capped despite favorable macro conditions.

On-Chain Strength vs. Short-Term Weakness

On-chain signals suggest structural resilience. Long-term holder supply is near record highs, with more than 70% of circulating BTC unmoved for over a year, reinforcing the scarcity narrative. Funding remains healthy but far from overheated extremes seen during prior tops. This implies the market is not in bubble territory, even as near-term exhaustion plays out. Still, failure to defend $113K could unlock a correction toward $110,500 or even $105,500, levels that coincide with the 200-day moving average.

Altcoin Outperformance Highlights Capital Rotation

The week reinforced that Bitcoin is losing short-term dominance. BTC’s market dominance has slipped to 56.4%, as capital rotated into altcoins following Powell’s speech. Ethereum’s all-time high near $4,890, XRP’s strength above $3, and Solana’s breakout over $200 collectively absorbed flows that Bitcoin might have captured in past cycles. Meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also spiked 10% intraday, further reflecting speculative appetite outside BTC.

Key Levels to Watch in BTC-USD

Short-term traders are monitoring $117,500 as the pivotal breakout point. A close above this region could ignite a short squeeze toward $123,000 and retests of the $126,600 channel resistance, a level flagged by multiple technical models. Conversely, failure to defend $113,500 raises the likelihood of a slide back toward $110K. The broader structure remains bullish as long as BTC holds above the $100K psychological barrier, supported by longer-term EMAs that continue to signal buy territory.

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