Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds $113K as ETF Demand Counters Whale Selling

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds $113K as Whale Selling and ETF Demand Collide

BTC-USD Stabilizes After Whale Distribution

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is holding near $113,170, up 1.6% on the day, even as large legacy wallets re-enter the market with heavy supply. An “OG” whale moved 250 BTC (~$28.2 million) to Binance this week after dumping 750 BTC the day before, marking more than $112 million in sales in just 48 hours. Historically, when coins that have been dormant for a decade reappear, they trigger sharp drawdowns, but this time buyers absorbed the hit. The fact that Bitcoin did not lose $112,000 despite the selling shows that demand has not dried up.

In the same window, nearly $40 million in short positions were liquidated, proving that traders betting on an immediate breakdown were caught off guard. The market is still treating whale distribution as a threat, but BTC’s ability to recover above $113K demonstrates resilience heading into September.

Key Resistance Levels Define the Forecast

The critical line for the Bitcoin price forecast is $117,500. If BTC clears that level, it cancels out the threat of a “double-top” pattern forming at the August high of $124,533 and opens the door for a push toward $120,000 to $124,000. Until then, the pattern remains dangerous. Failure to reclaim $117.5K would mean the August peak becomes a ceiling, leaving BTC vulnerable to a slide back toward $110,000 or $108,000, with $105,000 sitting just below as the next serious support.

Right now, BTC is trapped in a corridor between $108K and $117.5K, and whichever side breaks will dictate September’s direction. A clean move above resistance could unleash momentum quickly, while rejection risks a return to the summer lows.

Accumulation Trends Offer Long-Term Support

Even as whales sell, on-chain data shows accumulation is not slowing. Bitwise reports that both retail and institutional accumulation are at their highest levels since April. Small wallets, typically buying in the $1,000–$10,000 range, continue to stack consistently. At the same time, ETFs are expanding their exposure, now holding roughly 1.29 million BTC worth $146 billion. That represents more than four times daily miner issuance, meaning supply is being absorbed faster than it is created.

This kind of structural demand is a strong counterweight to short-term selling. Historically, when retail and institutions build together at this pace, Bitcoin has followed with significant upward breakouts.

ETF Inflows Versus U.S. Weakness

ETF demand remains healthy, with daily inflows exceeding $80 million. But one red flag is visible in the Coinbase Premium Index, which flipped negative this week. That index measures U.S. buying pressure relative to the rest of the world, and the shift suggests that Wall Street desks have stepped back. Recent gains have been driven instead by Asian and European demand. If U.S. institutions stay cautious, Bitcoin could stall at resistance until New York trading volume returns.

Macro Events Add Uncertainty to BTC-USD

The macro backdrop is adding pressure to the forecast. U.S. GDP was revised higher to 3.3% in Q2, up from 3.0%, while weekly jobless claims fell to 229,000. A strong economy reduces urgency for rate cuts, but political instability is growing after President Trump attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has since filed suit. That clash raises questions about Fed independence, and Bitcoin often benefits from such uncertainty as investors hedge against policy turmoil.

The next test comes from Friday’s PCE inflation report. If inflation runs cooler than expected, bets on a September Fed rate cut will strengthen, creating tailwinds for Bitcoin. A hotter print could have the opposite effect, reinforcing resistance at $115K–$117.5K.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Heading Into September

The near-term Bitcoin price forecast is clear: the battleground lies between $108,000 and $117,500. Support has been tested multiple times near $108K, and it continues to hold. Resistance at $117.5K, meanwhile, has become the critical barrier.

If BTC breaks above $117.5K with strong volume, the move toward $120K and $124K is likely to come quickly, supported by ETF inflows and ongoing corporate treasury accumulation. If the breakout fails, whales may succeed in dragging the price back toward $110K and $108K, with a deeper risk down to $105K if sentiment cracks.

Right now, Bitcoin is not in balance; it is building energy for its next large move. Buyers are proving they can absorb whale supply, ETFs are quietly tightening the float, and retail accumulation is accelerating. The only missing piece is a decisive push through resistance. Until that happens, the market remains on edge, waiting for the breakout that will define September.

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