Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Balances $110K With $135K Target

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds Above $110K Amid Volatility and Whale Selling

The price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has been caught in a tug-of-war between bullish catalysts and heavy selling pressure, trading between $108,000 and $112,000 after a rollercoaster week. From its August peak near $124,000, Bitcoin has shed more than 12%, marking its sharpest correction since July. At the time of writing, BTC trades around $110,945, attempting to reclaim technical momentum even as macro risks weigh on sentiment.

Whale Activity Sparks Turbulence Around $109K

A critical driver of the recent decline was a whale transaction over the weekend that saw 24,000 BTC offloaded, worth roughly $2.7 billion at prevailing prices. That sale dragged Bitcoin to $108,890, its lowest since mid-summer, sparking a wave of liquidations. CoinGlass data confirmed more than $60 million in short liquidations within hours, underscoring heightened volatility. Despite the selling, the Fear and Greed Index sits at 48/100, only marginally in “fear” territory, highlighting resilience among long-term holders.

Gold at $3,579 Revives Digital Gold Debate

Safe-haven flows have intensified as gold (XAU/USD) broke a record at $3,579 per ounce. Historically, gold rallies have preceded stronger performance from Bitcoin. In 2011, after gold hit $1,921, Bitcoin gained 145% in the following year. After gold’s 2020 record above $2,070, BTC surged 315% over 12 months. Following April’s $3,500 gold high, BTC rose 35% in three months. Applying that median trajectory implies BTC could test $135,000–$145,000 by December, with a one-year target range as high as $200,000–$400,000 if historical fractals repeat.

Corporate Treasury Demand Expands With $449M Purchase

Institutional buying continues to provide a safety net. Strategy, a public company aggressively mirroring MicroStrategy’s playbook, disclosed via Form 8-K a purchase of 4,048 BTC worth $449.3 million at an average price of $110,981. This brings its total holdings to 636,505 BTC, valued at nearly $71 billion at current levels, accumulated at an aggregate cost of $46.95 billion. The acquisition was financed through multiple ATM equity offerings totaling $471.8 million between August 26 and September 1. Such treasury strategies have cemented corporate demand as a structural tailwind for Bitcoin, with speculation mounting that Strategy could soon join the S&P 500, triggering passive inflows.

Network Fundamentals Near Record Strength

Despite price pressure, fundamentals remain intact. Bitcoin’s hash rate stands at 909 million Th/s, just shy of the all-time high of 1.08 billion Th/s recorded earlier in August when BTC traded above $115,000. Profitability also remains exceptional: across 5,487 days of Bitcoin trading history, 5,437 have been profitable—a remarkable 99.1% success rate. These metrics emphasize that underlying network security and long-term holding value remain unshaken by short-term volatility.

Technical Signals Point to Critical Levels

From a charting perspective, Bitcoin faces strong resistance at its 20-day EMA near $112,566 and again at the 50-day SMA around $115,918. Bulls need to reclaim these levels to avoid deeper corrections. Failure to do so risks retests of $105,000, and in a more severe case, a slide toward $100,000, a level that many traders view as a crucial cycle support. Material Indicators flagged the risk of a “Death Cross” between the 21-day and 100-day moving averages, while analyst Marcus Corvinus noted heavy bearish candles forming at the bottom of Bitcoin’s uptrend channel. Seasonality also weighs against bulls: since 2013, September has averaged -3.8% returns, with data showing Bitcoin sells off between September 16–23 nearly 100% of the time, typically by around 5%.

Macro Policy and Fed Watch Drive Sentiment

Macro remains the dominant driver. Futures markets now price a 90% probability of a 25bps Fed cut at the September 17 meeting. The decision hinges on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and the September CPI reading. Should the labor market cool, liquidity injections could push BTC back toward the $135,000–$150,000 range before year-end. Conversely, a delay or cancellation of Fed easing risks a violent repricing across crypto, with analysts warning that a “no-cut” scenario could spark forced selling and drive BTC under $100,000.

Altcoin Market Reflects Bitcoin’s Fragility

The correction has rippled across altcoins. Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades around $4,300, down nearly 5% on the week, battling resistance at $4,378. XRP (XRP-USD) fell to $2.79, testing critical support at $2.73, while Solana (SOL-USD) slipped to $201.26, down from $218, and Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) struggles at $0.21. Despite the softness, institutional flows remain positive: CoinShares reported $2.48 billion of inflows into digital asset funds last week, a sharp rebound from $1.4 billion of outflows prior.

Buy, Sell, or Hold: Bitcoin Verdict

All the data—whale selling, gold correlation, Fed policy expectations, and technical levels—point to a volatile but still structurally bullish setup. Bitcoin at $110,945 remains below its August high but far above July’s lows. If the Fed delivers cuts, BTC could target $135,000–$150,000 into Q4. Institutional accumulation and record hash rates argue against sustained downside beyond $100,000.

Verdict: Buy on pullbacks near $105,000–$108,000, with upside targets of $135,000–$150,000 into year-end and potential for $200,000+ in 2026 if the gold fractal holds. Short-term traders must respect September’s seasonality and risk of a dip to $100,000, but long-term fundamentals and corporate adoption cement Bitcoin’s bullish case.

That's TradingNEWS