Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Eyes $122K–$130K as ETF Demand and Whales Drive Rally

Institutional ETF Demand Driving BTC

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is consolidating around $115,800–$116,000, up 4% this week as institutions remain aggressive buyers. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $642 million on September 12, pushing weekly inflows to $2.3 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC alone brought in $315 million in one day, while BlackRock’s IBIT captured $264 million, maintaining its role as the most liquid vehicle with $3.2 billion in trading activity. This institutional support keeps demand firm even as retail participation cools.

Federal Reserve Policy Impact on BTC Liquidity

Expectations of monetary easing dominate the macro backdrop. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 80–90% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with a smaller 10% chance of a 50bp cut. Historically, Bitcoin has thrived in low-rate environments, with its strongest rallies in 2020–21 driven by abundant liquidity. Softer U.S. inflation data has fueled this expectation, reinforcing BTC’s appeal as a hedge in an easing cycle.

Whale Accumulation Signals Structural Strength

On-chain data highlights large-scale buying. Wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC have added more than 237,000 BTC over six months, worth over $27 billion. At the same time, the number of non-zero addresses reached 54.37 million, an all-time high. Profitability metrics show 93.6% of supply in profit, compared to a long-term average near 75%. Historically, when more than 90% of supply is profitable, Bitcoin has been in the early stages of powerful rallies, suggesting the current positioning is bullish.

Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold

Bitcoin continues to track gold’s price movements closely. When gold broke $3,500 in April, BTC followed within two months, rallying to $124,457. Current trading between $110,000 and $116,000 mirrors periods when gold led and Bitcoin lagged before breaking out. If gold sustains momentum, the correlation implies BTC could extend higher in the weeks ahead.

Exchange Metrics Show Buyers Dominant

Data from Binance shows the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio has remained above 1.0 since September 10, with recent readings at 1.04. A figure above 1 reflects stronger buy-side pressure. Previous cycle tops aligned closer to 1.15, meaning there is still room before buyer dominance overheats. Declining exchange reserves add another bullish signal, as available supply tightens while demand rises.

Technical Setup for BTC-USD

BTC has broken above its September descending channel and reclaimed the 50-day SMA at $114,509. Price is challenging $117,500 resistance, with a breakout potentially opening levels at $119,500, $122,200, and $124,500. Support sits at $114,800, with deeper structure at $110,856. A decisive close above $115,892, where price was rejected twice recently, could unlock momentum for a sharp move higher.

Macro Risks and Options Expiry Volatility

Bitcoin faces short-term risks if it fails to clear $117,500. A pullback to $111,961 remains possible, particularly with more than $4.3 billion in options contracts set to expire this month. Options positioning shows heavy interest near $120,000, which could amplify volatility. Inflation data will also be critical, as hotter prints could derail Fed easing expectations and trigger risk-off flows.

Altcoin Season Index and Market Rotation

The Altcoin Season Index is climbing, but Bitcoin remains the primary destination for new institutional flows. Historically, altcoin rallies gain traction after BTC breaks through resistance levels. Until BTC clears $120,000 convincingly, liquidity is expected to concentrate in Bitcoin itself rather than spill over broadly.

Q4 2025 Outlook for Bitcoin

If ETF inflows sustain above $2B weekly and the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, Bitcoin could extend toward $130,000 before year-end. On-chain accumulation, profitability metrics above 90%, and technical formations such as a potential cup-and-handle pattern all support a bullish thesis. Institutional positioning adds further weight to the case for an advance beyond the summer peak of $124,457.

Verdict on BTC-USD

Verdict: BUY — Bitcoin’s structure remains bullish with ETF inflows, whale accumulation of 237,000 BTC, profitability at 93.6% of supply, and technicals aligning above $115,800. Resistance at $117,500 is pivotal, but if cleared, BTC-USD is positioned for a move into the $122,000–$130,000 range in Q4 2025, supported by macro liquidity and institutional flows.

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