Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Eyes Breakout Above $112K as Whales Flip Long

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Battles $109,500 Amid Whale Short Covering, CPI Tension, and Macro Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $109,500 (+1.56%), stabilizing after touching an intraday low of $106,700. The move follows a series of whale short closures and renewed speculation about a Federal Reserve policy pivot ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI report, the only major macro data release this week amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. The market narrative has shifted from panic to positioning as both institutional and retail investors prepare for heightened volatility around the $112,000 resistance level.

Whale Activity and the Short-Covering Pivot

Large holders have decisively influenced Bitcoin’s rebound. On-chain trackers confirm that the veteran trader known as “Bitcoin OG” fully closed a 2,100 BTC short position worth $227.8 million, locking in $6.4 million in profit and marking a clear shift in sentiment. This same whale, who previously triggered a market-wide selloff after selling 80,000 BTC (~$9.6 billion) earlier in the year, now signals renewed confidence by exiting bearish bets.

Meanwhile, high-volume trader 0xc2a3 has continued his streak, earning over $12 million across 11 days and flipping from a short position to a $45 million Bitcoin long, employing 19x leverage. These reversals reflect a strategic repositioning by “smart money” — reducing bearish exposure as the market stabilizes above $107,000. The unwinding of aggregate short interest across derivatives exchanges has also tightened liquidity, setting the stage for a potential short squeeze should BTC-USD reclaim the $112,000 level.

Technical Picture: Tight Range, Breakout Building

Technically, Bitcoin’s range between $107,000 and $112,000 has become a compression zone. The RSI at 50.7 shows neutrality, while Chaikin Money Flow (CMF 0.03) signals marginal inflows. Resistance lies at $114,000, followed by $123,400, with support near $100,600. The 50-week EMA now hovers just below $100,000, historically a critical support in prior bull cycles.

Analysts identify $105,000 as the primary bear defense line and $116,000 as the breakout trigger for bullish confirmation. A decisive weekly close above $116K could validate the next leg toward $124,000–$150,000, while a failure below $100K risks extending the correction toward $80,000–$90,000, echoing prior cyclical retracements.

Macro Crosscurrents and the CPI Catalyst

Macroeconomic pressure defines the next 72 hours for crypto markets. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) print is expected to determine near-term Fed policy tone. Analysts at major trading desks estimate that a 0.2% monthly CPI increase could reignite the “soft landing” narrative, weakening the dollar and fueling a crypto rebound. A hotter CPI, conversely, would likely strengthen yields and cap Bitcoin’s upside below $112K.

Compounding the tension, the U.S. government shutdown — now 21 days long — has slowed data releases and delayed ETF approvals. Yet reports of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping planning a side meeting at the APEC summit in Seoul later this month have slightly calmed risk sentiment, allowing BTC-USD to stabilize.

Gold (GC=F) fell 2.32% after its strongest month since 2020, underscoring Bitcoin’s relative resilience. BTC’s outperformance against gold in October reflects growing investor preference for digital alternatives as real yields stagnate and liquidity builds in global money markets, with over $7.5 trillion parked in cash-like assets potentially seeking risk-on exposure.

Institutional Flow and ETF Demand

Despite the volatility, institutional interest remains steady. Data from CoinShares show continued net inflows into Bitcoin-related products even as altcoin ETFs face regulatory backlogs. Several asset managers are now expanding exposure through long-term treasury-like Bitcoin instruments. The IBIT ETF from BlackRock and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund have both surpassed $25 billion in combined inflows, signaling sustained demand from retirement accounts and corporate treasuries reallocating from bonds into crypto-backed exposure.

The whale activity coincides with this broader institutional trend. Portfolio rebalancing toward Bitcoin is increasingly framed as a liquidity hedge against policy uncertainty. On-chain data also confirms accumulation by long-term holders, whose aggregate wallet balances reached a record 15.6 million BTC, reducing exchange supply to five-year lows.

The Bitcoin–Gold Divergence and Global Positioning

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold remains a defining macro theme. As gold retreats from its $4,156/oz peak, Bitcoin continues to assert itself as the higher-beta alternative in risk-adjusted hedging strategies. Institutional analysts argue that Bitcoin could mimic gold’s earlier breakout pattern — lagging slightly before surging as monetary easing expectations solidify.

The ongoing decline in DXY (currently 103.8) adds fuel to the thesis. Historically, every 1-point drop in the dollar index has coincided with a 2–3% BTC-USD appreciation, supporting the probability of a late-year push toward $150,000 if dovish policy resumes.

Market Psychology and Whale Positioning Ahead of Year-End

The psychological battle remains between sidelined investors fearing missed opportunities and those anticipating another leg down. Market veterans like Merlijn The Trader forecast a potential $180,000 cycle high tied to M2 liquidity growth, while contrarian strategists like John Glover argue that the five-wave Elliott structure has already peaked, warning of a retracement to $70,000–$80,000 before a fresh rally in late 2026.

Yet the balance of positioning favors optimism: funding rates have normalized, perpetual swap premiums have reset, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. On-chain profit/loss ratios show more than 70% of coins held at profit, indicating market strength rather than exhaustion.

BTC Ecosystem Expansion: Bitcoin Hyper and Layer-2 Growth

The bullish narrative extends beyond Bitcoin itself. The emergence of Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a Layer-2 project built on Solana Virtual Machine with zero-knowledge proofs, has captured whale attention. HYPER’s presale has already raised $24.6 million, with single-tranche purchases of $500K, $310K, and $200K, signaling aggressive positioning by early investors.

Analysts see Bitcoin Hyper as a potential multi-bagger, projecting 10x–100x returns as decentralized apps migrate to the BTC ecosystem. With Stacks previously peaking at a $5 billion market cap, HYPER’s entry highlights renewed confidence in Bitcoin’s scalability narrative. Early holders reportedly earn 50% APY through staking rewards, underscoring the yield-driven expansion of BTC’s DeFi layer.

Strategic Outlook and Price Zones to Watch

Near term, the $112,000–$114,000 corridor remains decisive. Breaking it could confirm the end of Bitcoin’s corrective phase, potentially igniting a year-end rally toward $150,000. On the downside, $107,000 remains crucial support — any sustained break below it risks a capitulation wave into $100,000 or lower.

With BTC-USD now reclaiming momentum above $109,000, the narrative favors cautious accumulation. Liquidity rotation from money markets, ETF inflows, and the weakening dollar all build a structural foundation for recovery.

Final View:
Based on liquidity data, whale repositioning, and macro alignment, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) holds a bullish bias with a near-term Hold-to-Buy rating, targeting $150,000 contingent on CPI softness and policy easing. Support sits at $107K, resistance at $114K, with the next breakout level at $116K marking a potential inflection point for a new cyclical leg higher

That's TradingNEWS