
Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Falls to $111,410: $1.5B Liquidations, Whale Selling, and $107K Support in Focus
BTC-USD slips below $112K as Fed policy, 3.8% GDP growth, and $17.5B options expiry collide; whales unload $16.5B, while Metaplanet and Saylor’s firm keep buying | That's TradingNEWS
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) under pressure as $111,400 fails to hold
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded at $111,410 (-2.26%), slipping back under $112,000 after briefly recovering to $114,000. The week began with over $1.5 billion in long liquidations, triggered by thin liquidity and over-leveraged bets, driving the coin from above $115,000 toward $112,000 in a single session. The failure to reclaim $113,500 resistance has left markets eyeing $107,000 as the “max pain” zone tied to a $17.5 billion options expiry this week. Below that, $100,000 becomes the critical line — a break that would represent a 10% collapse from current levels and push BTC back into five-figure territory.
Macro tailwinds clash with Fed caution
U.S. growth data added volatility. GDP for Q2 was revised up sharply to 3.8% annualized, with jobless claims dropping to 218,000, well below forecasts. The strong prints pushed Treasury yields to 4.2% on the 10-year, keeping the Federal Reserve in a data-dependent stance. Chair Powell warned there is “no risk-free path” in setting rates, and other Fed officials echoed that easing too soon risks reigniting inflation. With PCE inflation expected at 2.9% y/y on Friday, risk appetite has cooled. For Bitcoin, the stronger U.S. macro picture complicates the bullish case, as higher yields draw capital away from crypto.
Arthur Hayes projects extreme upside tied to Fed credit expansion
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has reignited debate with a projection that Bitcoin could reach $3.4 million by 2028 if U.S. credit expansion mirrors the pandemic cycle. His model ties BTC’s price to money supply growth, with estimates of $15.2 trillion in fresh credit ($7.66T from the Fed, $7.57T from banks) over the next three years. Historically, Hayes argues, Bitcoin gained 0.19% for every $1 of new credit, implying exponential upside. He tempers the call, noting a more realistic path is “significantly higher than $115,000 today” but below the model’s extremes.
Whale distribution intensifies as institutions step in
On-chain flows confirm heavy selling pressure. Whales offloaded 147,000 BTC ($16.5B) in the past 30 days, a 2.7% decline in balances and the fastest pace this year. Transfers included more than 10 blocks of 8,500 BTC each, a clear signal of long-term holders taking profit. Yet institutions are absorbing supply. Metaplanet acquired 5,419 BTC, climbing into the top five corporate holders, while Michael Saylor’s firm added 850 BTC, bringing its total to 639,835 BTC. Structurally, corporations now hold more Bitcoin than ETFs, a significant shift that stabilizes demand even as whales distribute.
Technical signals reinforce bearish short-term bias
Charts show BTC trading below its 50-day SMA at $114,300 and 100-day SMA at $113,400, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has weakened from 61 to 44, pointing to fading demand. A decisive break under $110,000 risks accelerating losses to $100,000, while a sharp reversal above $116,000 could trigger a $2.7B short squeeze, flipping momentum back to bulls. Traders remain split between near-term downside pressure and the potential for a violent rebound.
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Altcoins mirror Bitcoin’s weakness
Ethereum (ETH-USD) slumped 5.03% to $3,962, its lowest in seven weeks, breaking the $4,000 threshold. XRP (XRP-USD) dipped to $2.83 (-4.62%), while Solana (SOL-USD) shed 6.68% and Cardano slipped over 4%. Even meme tokens joined the rout, with Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) down 5.5%. The synchronized declines reflect broader deleveraging across crypto, amplifying Bitcoin’s struggle to hold its ground above $111,000.
Speculative momentum shifts to Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER)
Amid BTC’s turbulence, speculative capital has rotated into Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a Layer-2 scaling solution that integrates the Solana Virtual Machine. The presale has raised $18.1M, with the token priced at $0.012975 and expected to climb in the next tranche. Analysts argue that if just 1% of Bitcoin’s supply (≈195,000 BTC, $22B) enters the Hyper ecosystem, it could unlock massive liquidity and support BTC utility expansion. Investors chasing growth are increasingly hedging exposure with HYPER as BTC consolidates.