Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Hovers Near $68K as $60K Support and Fed Path Dominate the Trade

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Struggles Below $70,000 After One of Its Sharpest Pullbacks

BTC-USD price snapshot: from $71,842 weekend spike back to the $67,000–$68,000 range

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $67,000–$68,500 after failing to hold above $70,000 and retreating from a local spike near $71,842 over the weekend. Spot quotes show roughly -0.6% to -2% over 24 hours depending on venue, with Bitcoin hovering just under the $70,000 ceiling that rejected price twice in recent days. The move comes on the back of a brutal drawdown: peak-to-trough losses sit near 47.5%, with one of the worst 7-day drops on record at about -22.2%, worse than roughly 99% of historical weekly windows. That combination – deep percentage drawdown plus failed attempts to reclaim $70,000–$75,000 – tells you the market is still in a corrective phase, not yet in a clean impulsive uptrend.

Daily structure: descending channel, broken $75K–$79K region and the critical $60K–$62K demand floor

On the daily chart, BTC-USD remains locked inside a clear descending channel that started after the failed extension above $79,000. Price lost the $79,000 zone decisively, sliced through the $75,000 area and accelerated into a major demand band around $60,000–$62,000, where buyers finally stepped in with size. The rebound has carried Bitcoin back into the mid- to high-$60,000s, but the structure is still corrective: BTC trades below the channel midline, below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and below the broken $75,300 support that now acts as resistance. As long as price remains under roughly $75,300 and especially beneath the dense Fibonacci cluster around $78,900–$81,400, the higher-timeframe bias stays bearish or, at best, range-bound within a dominant downtrend. The market is currently behaving like a rally inside a larger corrective leg, not yet a confirmed reversal.

Four-hour structure: corrective rebound under a descending trendline with $73K–$76K as the first ceiling

On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the $60,000 area looks like a counter-trend move unfolding beneath a descending trendline and below the prior breakdown zone. After the capitulation wick into the low $60,000s, BTC-USD based out and pushed toward $70,000, but every attempt above the high-$60,000s met selling. The key supply region now sits around $73,000–$76,000 – the former support that cracked on the last leg down. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold that area, the series of lower highs remains intact and the path of least resistance stays skewed toward another test of $60,000–$62,000. The current congestion in the high-$60,000s is basically stalling under resistance: buyers are defending higher lows above the absolute bottom, but sellers are defending every bounce into the prior breakdown zone. A clean break of the descending trendline and a sustained push into $73,000–$76,000 would be the first real signal that downside momentum is being neutralized.

On-chain signals: LTH-SOPR breaks below 1.0 but still short of full capitulation

On-chain, long-term holder behavior is finally showing stress. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) has rolled over from elevated levels; the annual average remains high around 1.87, but the short-term reading has dropped below the neutral 1.0 line to roughly 0.88. That means a meaningful portion of coins held by longer-horizon participants is now being spent at a loss, something that usually happens only once a correction becomes more advanced. At the same time, the monthly average still sits near 1.09, so the cohort as a whole is, on aggregate, still realizing profits rather than generating full-blown capitulation. In earlier bear-market bottoms, monthly SOPR compressed closer to 0.5 before a durable low formed. The current configuration therefore signals early strain on strong hands but not yet the kind of forced liquidation that typically clears the board. That aligns with the chart: a large drawdown, clear technical damage, but no definitive washout that would reset positioning.

Macro and rates: softer 2.4% inflation print, PCE and GDP ahead, and a market still trading macro headlines

On the macro side, Bitcoin is trading in an environment where inflation is easing but policy is not fully dovish. The recent U.S. CPI reading around 2.4% came in cooler than forecasts and initially propelled BTC-USD above $71,000 as traders re-priced the odds of earlier and deeper Federal Reserve cuts. That move faded, and attention now shifts to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures report and the next GDP read. These data points will drive expectations for how many cuts actually materialize this year. If the “continued cooling” narrative holds, the curve will start to price lower real yields and that generally supports risk assets, including Bitcoin. At the same time, the backdrop is complicated by tariff headlines and legal uncertainty around how far emergency powers can go in reshaping trade. Crypto has been reacting sharply to these macro jolts: when a previous tariff-related Supreme Court decision was delayed, Bitcoin spiked more than $2,000 in under an hour and flushed roughly tens of millions in short liquidations. That pattern – macro surprise, fast squeeze, quick giveback – is exactly what you expect in a high-leverage market still dominated by derivatives flow.

Bitcoin versus altcoins: dominance, risk appetite and why capital still hides in BTC

Relative performance across crypto shows that BTC-USD remains the defensive anchor of the space despite its own volatility. Bitcoin sits roughly 47.5% below its peak; altcoins in aggregate are much weaker, with many large names down 60% or more from their highs. Ethereum trades around $1,950–$2,000 in a tight $1,800–$2,100 consolidation, far below last summer’s $5,000 area. XRP hovers near $1.45–$1.50 after a violent run-up and subsequent pullback, with technical targets pointing back toward $1.26 and even closer to $1.13 or lower if the trend deteriorates. Dogecoin has slid toward $0.10 after failing to hold a brief spike near $0.12 and remains more than 60% below levels seen a year ago. Bitcoin dominance has climbed back into the high-50s, around 58–60%, after a period where altcoins briefly threatened to take leadership. That profile – Bitcoin down hard but still outperforming the average alternative – tells you risk appetite is constrained and capital is clustering in the most liquid asset. Rotations into altcoins have been short, violent, and narrow, not broad “alt seasons.” As long as dominance stays elevated and altcoins lag on rebounds, Bitcoin retains its status as the core risk proxy in crypto rather than ceding the lead to higher-beta names.

Quantum-computing fears: new structural risk narrative weighing on valuation

A second macro-structural theme now hanging over BTC-USD is the debate around quantum computing and its potential to break today’s cryptography. Search interest in “Quantum Computing Bitcoin” spiked precisely as BTC was printing fresh highs, then faded as price rolled over. That pattern shows how quickly a new risk meme can be pulled into the narrative machine: first as a speculative tailwind when traders chase anything “tech,” then as a justification to derisk once momentum cracks. Market commentators are split. Some argue the fear is exaggerated and see sell-offs driven by quantum headlines as opportunities to accumulate at lower prices, arguing that the ecosystem has years to migrate toward quantum-resistant schemes. Others focus on structural issues: roughly 4 million “lost” coins that could, in a more extreme scenario, be swept back into circulation if keys were broken, the difficulty of coordinating protocol-level hard forks to freeze those coins, and the signaling effect on large institutional holders worried about long-term security. The important point is not that a quantum break is imminent; it is that the mere perception of that tail risk is now being priced at the margin. When a market is already down nearly 50% and searching for a narrative, that kind of structural concern can cap valuation until the community produces credible technical roadmaps and governance solutions.

Sentiment and psychology: from euphoria to ‘genuine distress’ after a historic 7-day crash

The tape behavior and on-chain readings point to a clear swing in psychology. At the highs, BTC was trading above $90,000 with options markets and perpetual funding rates screaming optimism. The subsequent collapse – a 47.5% drawdown featuring a -22.2% week – has shifted the conversation from “how high” to “how much more pain.” Crypto-wide, the market is roughly 50% off its peaks, and commentary now openly uses phrases like “genuine distress” to describe the speed of the January–February decline. Long-term holders are starting to sell at a loss, leveraged traders have been repeatedly liquidated, and even high-profile corporate holders have seen large portions of paper profits evaporate. At the same time, there is no sign of absolute capitulation yet. Major institutional participants are still adding or holding exposure through spot ETFs and corporate balance sheets, and some macro funds clearly view dips into the $60,000–$65,000 zone as opportunities rather than existential threats. That mix – elevated fear and drawdown, but not outright abandonment – is typical of mid-cycle or late-cycle corrections, not necessarily of terminal tops.

Flows, institutional positioning and the “smart-money” read on BTC-USD

Institutional behavior provides an additional layer to the BTC-USD picture. A large Italian bank disclosed roughly $96 million of spot Bitcoin ETF exposure hedged with put options on Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy stock, effectively pairing directional BTC exposure with downside protection via equity proxies. A listed company like DDC has been quietly adding to treasury holdings, most recently increasing its stack by 80 BTC to a total north of 2,000 coins. Strategy itself continues to function as a levered Bitcoin proxy, absorbing volatility as BTC whipsaws between $60,000 and $70,000. These flows are not the kind of discretionary “insider trade” you see in a single stock, but they serve a similar signaling function: they show whether those closest to the asset class are increasing or cutting long-term exposure. The picture right now is mixed but far from capitulation. Some institutions are clearly hedging and reducing beta, others are using the drawdown to increase long-duration holdings. That is consistent with a market that has re-rated from extreme greed to cautious risk management, not one that has collectively decided Bitcoin’s structural story is over.

Key levels for BTC-USD: support, resistance and invalidation zones that matter

From a trading framework perspective, several levels define the current battlefield for BTC-USD. The primary support zone is $60,000–$62,000, the demand region that caught the last collapse and aligns with this year’s lows. Lose that area on a weekly closing basis and the market opens space for a deeper retracement into the mid-$50,000s or lower, especially given the distance to long-term moving averages. Above price, the first meaningful resistance band sits at $73,000–$76,000 – the prior support zone that flipped into supply during the breakdown. Reclaiming that range and holding it would be the first confirmation that sellers have lost control of the short-term trend. Beyond that, the $78,900–$81,400 cluster combines a major Fibonacci area with former structure; until BTC trades robustly above that zone, the daily bias remains corrective. The 50-day EMA around $80,000 is a tactical reclaim level: trade back above and stay there, and the narrative shifts from “dead-cat bounce” to “potential trend repair.” The 200-day region near $94,000 is where Bitcoin would “catch its breath” from a longer-term perspective; regaining that band would effectively reset the bull-market structure after this drawdown.

Directional stance on BTC-USD: skewed bullish over the cycle, tactically cautious with $60K as the line in the sand

Putting the pieces together, BTC-USD sits at an uncomfortable but structurally important point in its cycle. Technically the market is still in a downtrend inside a descending channel, fundamentally it is digesting one of its worst 7-day falls on record, and structurally it is dealing with new narratives around quantum risk and macro policy uncertainty. At the same time, the main long-term demand zone at $60,000–$62,000 has held so far, on-chain stress is real but not yet capitulatory, institutional positioning has softened but not inverted, and Bitcoin continues to outperform most of the altcoin complex during the sell-off. That combination argues against a blanket bearish call at current levels. With $60,000–$62,000 acting as the key line in the sand, the stance on BTC-USD is biased toward a cautious Buy / accumulate rather than a Sell or flat Hold. The asymmetric setup is clear: above $60,000, upside back into $74,000–$80,000 and eventually toward the $90,000–$94,000 region is plausible if macro doesn’t break; below $60,000 on a decisive weekly close, the thesis shifts and the market would move into a deeper corrective regime where capital preservation becomes the priority. For now, the trend is still corrective, the volatility is still elevated, and the edge belongs to traders who treat dips into the high-$60,000s and, especially, retests of $60,000–$62,000 as areas to build exposure with tight invalidation rather than chasing strength into overhead resistance.

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