Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Rebounds Above $112,500 as Selling Cools, ETFs Stabilize, and Accumulation Builds

Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Regains Momentum Above $112,500 as ETF Outflows Ease and On-Chain Accumulation Strengthens

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed back to $112,565, up 1.79% on the day, marking a critical recovery after a volatile week defined by institutional selling, ETF redemptions, and global macro tension. The rebound follows a sharp flush-out earlier this month that erased nearly $19 billion in crypto derivatives positions and briefly pushed BTC below $107,000. Renewed buying near the $104,000–$105,000 support range—combined with continued exchange outflows—has reinforced market conviction that Bitcoin’s correction may have reached exhaustion.

Institutional Flows Stabilize After $1B in ETF Redemptions

For the first time in nearly a week, Bitcoin ETFs posted a neutral session, with net redemptions slowing to $40 million, following four consecutive days of outflows totaling over $1 billion. Despite that drag, total spot Bitcoin ETF holdings still stand around $61 billion, signaling that institutional investors are holding core exposure rather than fully exiting. Reports of BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) unloading systematic 300 BTC blocks through OTC channels earlier in the week rattled sentiment, but today’s stabilization suggests this selling may have concluded. Traders view the shift as an important step toward restoring balance between ETF-driven supply and on-chain demand.

Exchange Data Signals Accumulation Phase in Full Swing

On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant show the 30-day Binance netflow remaining firmly negative, confirming that investors are removing BTC from exchanges faster than they deposit it. Historically, this pattern has coincided with accumulation periods that precede powerful rallies. Exchange reserves have now declined steadily since early October, indicating confidence among long-term holders despite macro turbulence. Analysts emphasize that while the Fear and Greed Index remains stuck near 20, the divergence between price stability and falling reserves suggests “smart money accumulation” beneath the surface—mirroring the setup that preceded the April 2025 rally from $77,000 to $123,000.

Macro Forces and Fed Policy Shape Near-Term Sentiment

Macroeconomic conditions continue to cast a long shadow on crypto risk appetite. The U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, and ongoing U.S.–China tariff negotiations have tightened liquidity and heightened volatility across global markets. President Trump’s comments about potential 155% tariffs on Chinese imports pushed investors toward defensive positioning earlier in the week, while Fed officials’ upcoming decision on October 29 remains the key macro catalyst. Traders expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, which could weaken the dollar and reprice risk assets higher, benefitting BTC if inflation data on October 24 confirms a cooling trend near 3.1% YoY.

Derivatives and Market Structure Indicate Short Squeeze Potential

The Bitcoin futures market is flashing early signs of capitulation. Open interest remains 15% below early October peaks, while funding rates have stayed negative for six of the past seven sessions—averaging −0.004%, a clear reflection of crowded short positioning. Historically, such setups have triggered short squeezes as bearish traders rush to cover when spot price breaks resistance. A move above $113,800, where the 50-day EMA converges, would likely ignite rapid liquidations of bearish bets, potentially propelling BTC toward $120,000–$123,000 within days. The current long/short ratio of 0.955 confirms bearish bias remains entrenched, offering fertile ground for a reversal rally.

Technical Picture: Break Above $112,000 Restores Bullish Bias

Bitcoin’s technical structure has improved after retesting and holding above the 200-day SMA at $108,026. Today’s push beyond $112,000 reestablishes bullish control, turning this level into immediate support. The next resistance lies at $113,800, followed by $120,000, a key psychological level where June’s failed breakout occurred. Momentum oscillators confirm renewed strength: the RSI has recovered to 52, while MACD is nearing a bullish crossover on the daily timeframe. The Fibonacci retracement from $74,508 to $126,199 places the 61.8% level at $106,453, which has now been successfully defended three times since October 10, adding to the bullish structural case.

Long-Term Holders Reinforce Conviction

Institutional and corporate holders continue to anchor sentiment. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) expanded its holdings to 640,418 BTC, valued near $47.4 billion, after purchasing 168 BTC at an average price of $112,051. Meanwhile, net exchange reserves across the top five exchanges have dropped to their lowest level since mid-2022. This contraction in available supply, coupled with recovering spot demand, is creating a constructive long-term imbalance between liquid and illiquid BTC. As the total BTC market cap climbs back to $2.22 trillion, analysts emphasize that this dynamic reinforces Bitcoin’s structural resilience amid macro volatility.

Market Psychology Shifts From Fear Toward Anticipation

While sentiment remains fragile, the tone of market behavior has begun to shift. The combination of improving technicals, on-chain withdrawals, and volume returning to healthy levels—$58.8 billion traded in 24 hours, up 67%—suggests renewed speculative engagement. Traders note that negative ETF headlines have lost their shock value, while each dip toward the $104,000–$105,000 zone attracts strong demand. The Fear and Greed Index climbing modestly from 18 to 25 confirms a slow rotation from panic into cautious optimism, a transition phase often seen before momentum reversals.

Outlook: From Defensive Accumulation to Gradual Recovery

The convergence of technical stabilization, improved liquidity, and declining exchange reserves positions BTC-USD for a potential sustained rebound. As long as Bitcoin holds above $112,000, the short-term target remains $120,000, with a break above that zone likely accelerating gains toward $126,000, matching the previous all-time high. Conversely, failure to defend $108,000 would reopen downside risk to $104,000. Overall, momentum now favors buyers, with strong accumulation signaling that institutional desks and long-term holders are preparing for renewed upside into Q4 2025.

Verdict: BTC-USD – Buy, with short-term momentum bullish above $112,000 and medium-term targets set between $120,000–$126,000, supported by improving on-chain fundamentals and easing ETF pressure.

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