Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Steadies at $114,552 as ETF Inflows, Options Volatility, and Whale Activity Drive Uptober Setup

Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds $114K as October Momentum Builds

Bitcoin is trading at $114,552, holding firm after rebounding from last week’s $109,500 low. The rally accelerated once BTC reclaimed the 100-period SMA at $112,808, and the price is now consolidating just under a critical resistance zone at $114,741. Volume over the past 24 hours stood at $56.9 billion, with Bitcoin’s market capitalization hovering near $2.28 trillion. Technical setups indicate upside potential, with bulls targeting $116,150 and $117,850 before the psychologically important $120,000 level. On the downside, support sits at $113,000, with deeper risk to $111,000–$108,700 if momentum stalls.

Seasonality and Historical Tailwinds Point to Q4 Gains

October, often referred to as “Uptober”, has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month. Since 2013, BTC has averaged +22% in October and +46% in November, with several years seeing explosive fourth-quarter rallies. In 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin gained 57% and 48% respectively in Q4, and in 2013, the move reached an extraordinary 480% surge. This seasonality, coupled with technical confirmation of an ascending triangle pattern, suggests conditions are ripe for continuation.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand at a Crossroads

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $57 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT now holding $87.6 billion. Inflows earlier this week reached nearly $1 billion, but recent sessions have seen flattening flows, signaling profit-taking or temporary caution. Institutional flows remain a key driver, and whether the pace resumes could decide if BTC clears $117,800 and accelerates higher. A breakout above that neckline would unlock technical targets at $120,000 and beyond.

Options Market Shows Surge in Implied Volatility

The derivatives market is flashing signals of heightened activity. Implied volatility in Bitcoin options has surged, with traders paying premiums for upside calls in the $116K–$120K zone. Open interest has grown in out-of-the-money calls, indicating that many are positioning for an upward surprise, though skew metrics still show demand for protective puts. Rising volatility expectations often precede sharp price swings, suggesting a breakout move could be imminent.

On-Chain Activity: Dormant Whale Awakens

Blockchain trackers flagged the transfer of 400 BTC (~$44 million) from a wallet dormant for 12 years. Such movements can spook the market if coins are sent to exchanges, signaling potential selling pressure. However, if funds are reallocated to cold storage or held off-exchange, it could imply confidence in the Q4 outlook. This whale activity is particularly notable given BTC’s consolidation near resistance; market watchers are tracking closely whether it tips supply dynamics in the short term.

Macro Tailwinds from Federal Reserve and Shutdown

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September, and traders now anticipate at least one more reduction by December. Lower yields and a softer dollar— the Dollar Index (DXY) is down nearly 10% year-to-date to 94.93— create a supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown complicates data flow, as critical labor and inflation reports are delayed. With the Fed “flying blind,” speculative assets like BTC often benefit from reduced confidence in traditional policy tools.

Stablecoin Liquidity and Long-Term Holder Accumulation

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI has dropped to 21, the lowest in four months, flashing a “buy” signal as stablecoin liquidity builds. Over 10 billion USDT has been minted in the last 60 days, signaling new capital entering the market. Long-term holders also continue to accumulate, with 298,000 BTC added to cold storage addresses. This combination of rising liquidity and holder conviction strengthens the bull case as BTC prepares to test higher levels.

Asian Holiday Lulls and Global Trading Patterns

Asia’s Golden Week holiday (Oct 1–7) and South Korea’s extended closure (Oct 3–9) reduce regional participation, which historically leads to flat or negative early-October BTC performance. Year-to-date, Asian trading hours have underperformed with –9.7% compounded returns, compared to gains during U.S. sessions. With thinner liquidity, volatility risk rises, especially during overlapping trading windows. If ETF flows or whale activity hit order books during this low-liquidity stretch, outsized moves could follow.

Altcoin Buzz: Bitcoin Hyper Raises $19.5M

While BTC consolidates, retail energy is shifting toward Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a BTC-native Layer 2 combining Solana’s scalability with Bitcoin’s security. Its presale has already raised $19.5 million, with the token price at $0.013005. Featuring audited contracts, cross-chain bridging, meme coin creation, and 6% staking rewards, it positions itself as a high-beta play alongside BTC’s Q4 momentum. Early retail enthusiasm suggests HYPER could track BTC’s trajectory if the flagship asset breaks out above $117K–$120K.

That's TradingNEWS