Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Struggles at $111,700 as $110K Support Tested

BTC-USD Tests $110K as Critical Lifeline

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is locked in a battle with the $110,000 support, which traders describe as a “make-or-break” zone. On Wednesday, the coin rebounded modestly to $111,710, posting a 0.9% daily gain, but analysts insist this is not enough. Swissblock has labeled $110K as Bitcoin’s lifeline, stressing that failure to hold this level risks triggering a sharper correction. AlphaBTC emphasized that only a 4-hour close above $112,000 would confirm stability, otherwise the road to $105,000 remains open. The broader fear is that if this zone gives way, a psychological test of $100,000 could be imminent.

Technical Structure Reveals Persistent Weakness

Since peaking at $124,533 on Aug. 14, Bitcoin has slid more than 11%, establishing a bearish descending channel. On daily charts, resistance now sits at the 50-day moving average of $116,553, while support lies between $108,695 and $110,000. Momentum indicators remain unfavorable: the RSI below 50 signals sellers dominate, and the MACD continues to flash red. In liquidity terms, shorts were liquidated at $112,300, but if BTC fails to reclaim $113,000, longs will be the next targets. Bearish extensions point to $105,150 or $101,550, both of which align with fair value gaps seen in prior sell-offs.

On-Chain Metrics Undermine Bullish Case

Data from Glassnode highlights shrinking speculative appetite. The monthly adjusted transfer volume has dropped by 13%, from $26.7B to $23.2B, with a break below the yearly average of $21.6B signaling further demand erosion. The Taker Buy-Sell Ratio has slumped to –0.945, its lowest since November 2021, when BTC topped near $69,000 before collapsing into a multi-month bear market. A negative ratio reflects persistent selling pressure overpowering buying activity, highlighting structural fragility beneath the current price action.

Whale Activity and Exchange Inflows Intensify Pressure

Large players are again shaping sentiment. A Satoshi-era whale liquidated 3,968 BTC worth $437M, rotating the proceeds heavily into Ethereum. The Exchange Whale Ratio has been climbing, showing that inflows from major holders are increasing relative to total volume, often a precursor to market-wide distribution. If whales continue unloading while BTC hovers near $110K, it may tip the balance toward a deeper breakdown.

Hashrate and Mining Fundamentals Signal Long-Term Strength

Despite short-term fragility, Bitcoin’s core infrastructure is surging. The hashrate reached 944 EH/s, while mining difficulty hit a record 129.7 trillion, cementing the network’s highest security levels ever. Mining companies are scaling aggressively. HIVE Digital Technologies surpassed 16 EH/s of capacity, doubling its BTC output to 8 coins per day, holding 610 BTC valued at $67.7M. Plans are underway to reach 25 EH/s by year-end, boosting daily output toward 12 BTC. This divergence between bearish price action and bullish mining investment underscores a long-term confidence not reflected in current charts.

Metaplanet Launches $835M Bitcoin Buying Program

Institutional accumulation continues to set the tone. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet approved a massive capital raise of $880M, with $835M dedicated to purchasing Bitcoin. The company already owns 18,991 BTC (~$2.1B) and has outlined a “21 Million Plan” targeting ownership of 210,000 BTC by 2027, equivalent to 1% of total supply. Alongside acquisitions, Metaplanet will expand its Bitcoin Income Business, monetizing holdings by selling covered calls. The strategy is not only boosting returns but has secured the firm’s inclusion in the FTSE Japan and FTSE All-World indices, enhancing exposure to global investors.

ETF Flows and Altcoin Rotation Complicate the Outlook

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are once again attracting inflows after a period of stagnation, with the Coinbase Premium flipping positive — a sign that U.S. institutional demand is back. Still, whale capital rotation is spreading into altcoins. Roughly $456M shifted into Ethereum (ETH-USD), while smart money snapped up Chainlink (LINK-USD) and Ethena (ENA-USD). This diversification raises the question: is Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase while investors chase higher-beta assets, or is this simply an interlude before BTC regains dominance?

Macro Landscape: Fed Policy and Seasonal Patterns

Federal Reserve policy remains central. Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks hinted at possible 25 basis point cuts in September, igniting optimism across risk assets. Yet history warns that September has never delivered more than +8% returns for BTC. Network economist Timothy Peterson points out that in the last four months of the year, Bitcoin has delivered gains 70% of the time, with an average Q4 rise of 44%, which would project BTC toward $160K by Christmas. That seasonal pattern is clashing with near-term weakness, leaving investors torn between technical fragility and historical strength.

Final Decision: Short-Term Caution, Medium-Term Opportunity

Bearish forces are undeniable — RSI weakness, a negative taker ratio, whale selling, declining transfer volumes, and repeated failures above $112K. Yet bullish anchors are equally significant: hashrate at all-time highs, ETF inflows resuming, Metaplanet’s $835M commitment, and Q4 seasonality historically favoring double-digit gains.

At $111,700, Bitcoin’s outlook is split. A decisive break below $110K points directly to $100K, making it a Sell for short-term traders. However, institutional support, mining expansion, and ETF demand all suggest medium-term upside targeting $150K–$160K by year-end.

BTC-USD = Hold (short-term cautious, medium-term bullish).

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