Bitcoin Price Forecast ETF Inflows, Fed Policy, and Profit-Taking Collide aw BTC-USD Holds $110K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds $110K as ETF Flows, Fed Policy, and Profit-Taking Collide

BTC-USD Near $110,751 Amid ETF Rotation

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $110,751, slipping 0.15% over the last 24 hours, while weekly gains stand near +1.4%. The move reflects an uneasy balance between surging ETF inflows, institutional positioning, and long-term holder profit-taking. Price action remains bound between $108,770 support and resistance near $113,400, levels that traders are watching closely as liquidity conditions shift.

ETF Flows Show Divergence Across Providers

The most critical driver has been ETF demand. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw $1.3 billion in net inflows this week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which absorbed $238 million in a single day and now manages over $70 billion in assets. In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark Invest’s ARKB faced outflows of $117 million and $125 million, while Bitwise’s BITB shed $66 million. Net flows across spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed after two days of inflows, finishing with $227 million in net outflows on September 4. Despite the mixed flows, shrinking exchange supply shows institutions are still accumulating — on-chain data confirms Bitcoin is being withdrawn from exchanges at 4x the pace of new coins mined.

Long-Term Holders Realize $2.46B in Profits

On September 5, long-term holders realized $2.46 billion in profits, the largest single-day realization since June. Roughly 7,636 BTC held for 3–5 years and 2,632 BTC held for 2–3 years were sold, showing a rotation from older wallets into new hands. Similar selling occurred at the end of August, but the intensity has now increased. Historically, large-scale profit-taking by long-term holders precedes short-term volatility, though it also often clears overhead supply for the next leg higher.

Macro Tailwinds From Weak U.S. Jobs Data

The August U.S. nonfarm payrolls report added just 22,000 jobs, far below the 75,000 expected, while unemployment climbed to 4.3%. Treasury yields slid, the dollar index fell 0.7%, and markets fully priced in a 25bp Fed rate cut in September, with a 12% chance of a 50bp cut. Bitcoin responded immediately, climbing above $113,200 before retracing gains. Historically, dovish Fed pivots and weaker labor markets have supported crypto rallies, particularly when combined with falling real yields.

Technical Levels and Short-Term Momentum

On the 4-hour chart, BTC-USD is forming an ascending triangle, with higher lows since late August. Resistance sits at $113,400, a breakout of which would expose upside targets at $115,400 and $117,150. Support remains firm at $108,770, aligned with the 50-SMA at $110,021. The 200-SMA near $112,606 acts as the pivot. RSI at 50 shows consolidation, with mild bullish divergence. On a weekly timeframe, BTC remains inside a rising channel, with the next resistance near $134,500. Fibonacci projections put extended upside targets at $171,000 and $231,000, while key structural support remains between $95,000 and $100,000.

Cycle Data and Analyst Disagreement

Cycle watchers highlight July as the historical bottom month in post-election years. Bitcoin bottomed in July 2017 and July 2021, and some argue July 2025 repeated the pattern. That view suggests Q4 could deliver a major rally, potentially the start of the “mania phase.” Yet skeptics like analyst PlanC warn that relying on halving-cycle history is statistically flawed, noting that ETF adoption, treasury strategies, and institutional derivatives have structurally altered market behavior. Surveys show nearly 70% of traders expect BTC to revisit $105,000 before testing higher levels, reflecting split sentiment between historical cycle believers and those focused on new institutional dynamics.

Corporate Treasury and Institutional Accumulation

Corporate treasuries now hold over 840,000 BTC, led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) with 636,505 BTC on its balance sheet. This level of accumulation underpins Bitcoin’s role as a treasury reserve asset, particularly among U.S. companies hedging against inflation. Meanwhile, CME Bitcoin futures open interest has mirrored more than half of ETH ETF inflows, showing traditional finance is embedding deeper into the crypto derivatives complex. Businesses are absorbing Bitcoin faster than it is mined, further tightening float availability and amplifying the ETF-driven supply shock.

Altcoin Rotation From ETF Flows

Analysts note that ETF-driven demand for Bitcoin often sparks rotations into altcoins. Aptos (APT) has been cited as a Layer-1 beneficiary, consolidating near $4.68–$5.15 with long-term targets at $15–$20. Jupiter (JUP) continues to lead DeFi aggregation on Solana, facing resistance at $0.50 but positioned to push toward $0.55–$0.60. Even speculative projects like MAGACOIN Finance have gained attention after passing security audits, a reminder that Bitcoin’s ETF inflows ripple across the broader digital asset market.

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