Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bulls and Bears Battle at $112,500

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Under Pressure at $111K After Whale Sales and ETF Outflows

Institutional Flows Reverse as Crypto ETPs Post $1.4B in Losses

Bitcoin’s late-August pullback is hitting institutional products hard. Crypto exchange-traded products suffered $1.43 billion in outflows, the heaviest since March 2025, snapping a brief two-week inflow run. The losses came as BTC-USD slid from above $116,000 on Aug. 18 to $112,000 by week’s end, while Ether (ETH-USD) tumbled from $4,250 to under $4,100. Spot Ether ETFs alone saw nearly $430 million withdrawn in a single day, with Ether’s cumulative week at $440 million outflows. Bitcoin products bore the brunt: more than $1 billion exited BTC funds, reflecting investor hesitancy despite dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric. Year-to-date, Ethereum flows now represent 26% of total AUM, double Bitcoin’s 11%, underscoring where institutions are tilting.

Whale Distributions Intensify Selling Pressure

Adding to ETF exits, whale activity has amplified volatility. A seven-year-old wallet rotated 22,769 BTC worth $2.59 billion into Ether, igniting a $4,000 intraday drop. This entity still controls over $11 billion in BTC, sitting on gains exceeding 1,600%. At a broader level, Glassnode data show distribution across all wallet cohorts, with heavy selling from addresses holding 10–100 BTC—a segment often tied to early crypto funds and high-net-worth investors. In parallel, BlackRock transferred 1,703 BTC (~$189 million) to Coinbase, another sign of profit-taking by institutions. With 94% of BTC entities currently in profit, on-chain profitability saturation suggests cycle-top conditions, historically a precursor to double-digit drawdowns.

Liquidations Add Fuel to Downside Momentum

The correction was compounded by forced unwinds. In the past 24 hours, 164,852 traders were liquidated, wiping out $807 million in positions. Bitcoin accounted for nearly $250 million, with 95% of liquidations on the long side—evidence of excessive bullish leverage. A single OKX trade saw $12.49 million liquidated in one blow. BTC’s 30-day MVRV ratio has fallen to −3.37%, close to the −4% reversal zone that has historically marked medium-term bottoms, suggesting undervaluation even as leveraged traders capitulate.

Technical Signals Point to $100K Retest Risk

BTC’s spot price trades around $111,500, sliding nearly 10% off its $124,400 all-time high set earlier this month. The rejection near $116,000 confirmed a rising wedge breakdown, a bearish structure targeting $94,500 to $91,600 if momentum continues. Immediate support lies at the 100-day EMA of $110,865, with deeper support at the 200-day EMA near $103,688. Resistance is stacked at the 50-EMA ($114,749) and 100-EMA ($115,636). The RSI sits at 32, in oversold territory but not yet triggering a reversal. MACD momentum remains firmly negative, reinforcing the bearish setup.

Macro Context: Powell Dovish, But Selling Dominates

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tilted dovish, boosting risk assets briefly as he emphasized that the “balance of risks” has shifted toward employment weakness. That sent BTC above $117,000, but the relief rally evaporated as whales and institutions offloaded. Despite the dovish pivot, spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $1.17 billion in weekly outflows, second only to March’s record, showing skepticism that monetary easing alone can offset distribution.

Contrasting Flows: Japan Buys While West Sells

While U.S. institutions pulled back, Japanese corporate treasuries are still accumulating. Metaplanet added 103 BTC on Monday, bringing its holdings to 18,991 BTC, signaling a strategy of dollar-cost averaging through volatility. Meanwhile, four more Japanese firms disclosed purchases totaling 156.79 BTC. This divergence underscores regional differences: Asia-based corporates are adding exposure even as Western funds reduce.

Altcoin Market Mirrors Bitcoin Weakness

The selloff wasn’t isolated. ETH dropped 4% to $4,577, while XRP fell 2.5% to $2.94 and SOL slipped 5% to $197. Meme tokens like DOGE lost 5%, reflecting broad-based pressure. Still, Ether retains relative resilience with $2.5 billion YTD inflows, compared to Bitcoin’s $1 billion net outflows. That split suggests altcoin adoption is absorbing some of the liquidity rotating out of BTC.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bulls vs. Bears

The current price near $111,500 leaves Bitcoin at a crossroads. Bulls argue that with the 30-day MVRV at −3.37% and RSI oversold, BTC is undervalued on a short-term basis. A rebound above the 20-day EMA at $115,500 could flip the wedge breakdown into a bear trap and reopen the path toward $120,000–$124,000. Macro tailwinds—like Powell confirming a 25 bps cut in September—and continued Japanese corporate accumulation reinforce the bullish case.

Bears counter with on-chain supply data: 94% of holders are in profit, a historically dangerous saturation point, and whales distributing billions into ETH adds a structural supply overhang. Spot ETF outflows of $1.17 billion show institutional caution, while technical patterns point toward $100,000–$94,500 downside targets if $111,000 fails. MACD’s bearish cross and wedge breakdown keep momentum tilted lower.

The clash is clear: bulls need a decisive reclaim of $115,500 with ETF inflows stabilizing to shift sentiment, while bears see any rally as distribution before deeper tests of six figures.