XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds $1.90 Support as Bulls Target a Break Toward $2.60–$2.70

XRP-USD Price Overview Around $1.90–$2.00

Current Trading Zone and Market Context

XRP-USD is trading in the $1.90–$1.99 range, with intraday swings roughly between $1.91 and $2.01. Market capitalization sits near $116–$120 billion, while 24-hour volume fluctuates around $1.7–$2.7 billion. The chart shows a clear equilibrium zone rather than a trend: sellers are repeatedly defending the $2.00 line, while buyers keep stepping in between $1.96 and $1.90. Price is not crashing; it is congesting under a visible ceiling where every rally toward $2.00 is used as liquidity to exit, and every dip toward $1.90 attracts dip-buying flows.

Institutional Structure: ETFs, Derivatives And XRP-USD Liquidity

Regulated infrastructure around XRP-USD has moved forward much faster than the spot chart suggests. CME has introduced Spot-Quoted XRP futures, adding XRP beside BTC and ETH in a futures format designed to be margined in spot terms with longer expiries. This allows macro desks and professional traders to hedge or leverage XRP exposure cleanly instead of relying on offshore perpetuals. At the same time, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have attracted close to $0.9–$1.0 billion in cumulative inflows and now hold about $1.1–$1.2 billion in assets. Daily flows of $20–50 million have persisted even while spot price slipped below $2.00, and the inflow streak is now measured in multiple weeks of uninterrupted net buying. Structurally, that is accumulation: regulated vehicles are adding XRP exposure steadily while the open chart still looks unattractive enough to keep most retail late to the move.

Tokenization, RLUSD And The Strategic Case For XRP-USD

The medium-term bull case for XRP-USD is not built only on price targets but on plumbing. Major market-infrastructure players are openly moving parts of their workflows on-chain, with references to $3–4 quadrillion in securities notional flowing through legacy systems that are now starting to experiment with tokenized rails. Large asset managers and custodians talk about “trapped liquidity” across sovereign wealth, IP rights, sports assets and real-world cash flows that can be fractionalized and settled via tokenization. The XRP Ledger sits inside that discussion as one of the candidate networks for cross-border and institutional settlement. Ripple is simultaneously pushing RLUSD into a multichain architecture, testing on Optimism, Base, Ink and Unichain through Wormhole’s NTT standard. That connects stablecoin liquidity, payments, checkout flows and DeFi-style swaps, while explicitly keeping XRP holders in the loop across those chains. If even a small fraction of the “tens or hundreds of trillions” tokenization narrative settles over rails where XRP-USD is central to bridging or liquidity, today’s $116–$120B valuation is not pricing that scenario.

On-Chain And Flow Signals: Managed Weakness Instead Of Collapse

Short-term data around XRP-USD shows a market that looks controlled rather than broken. A TD Sequential buy signal printed around the $1.90 band, typically associated with exhaustion after a selling sequence. On-chain, spent-coin metrics show a sharp drop in XRP being moved to sell, from about 132 million XRP down to around 4.6 million, the lowest level in more than a month. That is a more than 95% collapse in active sell supply hitting exchanges. Macro commentators argue large funds and banks are accumulating XRP quietly via OTC channels and ETF wrappers, deliberately avoiding public confirmation until they finish building size. At the same time, another macro voice frames the price as “controlled”: institutional and ETF demand absorbs float, visible order-book size sits stacked at obvious resistance levels like $2.00–$2.10, and the spot chart looks mediocre enough to keep retail disengaged. The net effect is a range where real demand is present but largely hidden, while visible price action stays capped to prevent an early melt-up.

Critical Levels For XRP-USD: Support, Resistance And Invalidation

The technical map is clear. On the downside, $2.00 has flipped from support to resistance and now acts as a psychological pivot. The first real demand band sits in the $1.97–$1.96 area, which has repeatedly held daily closes. Beneath that, $1.90 is the structural line in the sand; a clean daily close and follow-through below it would shift the narrative from constructive consolidation into a more directional bearish phase. If that break occurs, the next obvious magnets are the $1.82–$1.81 zone and, under heavier liquidation, the $1.52 area highlighted in more aggressive downside projections. On the upside, the first ceiling is the $2.00–$2.01 pocket, which has already rejected price several times on elevated volume, confirming heavy supply at that line. Regaining ~$2.11 would be the first sign that buyers are starting to retake control. Above that, the $2.21–$2.28 range, where the 50-day EMA and horizontal resistance converge, is the key momentum gate; sustained trade above this band would indicate the downtrend from recent highs is losing authority. A decisive push through $2.35 opens the path toward the $2.50–$2.60 zone, which corresponds to the inefficient region left by the October 11 deleveraging event that was never fully retraced. Only once price interacts with the $2.60–$2.70 area can you say the chart has properly cleaned up that structural scar. Momentum confirms the “coiled” view: on the 4-hour chart, RSI hovering in the low 40s shows mild bearish bias but weakening force, while converging MACD lines signal compression rather than a fresh impulsive dump.

Structural Drivers: ETFs, CME Futures And Escrow Overhang

Three structural levers will dictate the next move in XRP-USD more than intraday noise. First, ETF flows: spot XRP products have already amassed around $1.0B in net inflows and $1.1–$1.2B in assets, with scenario work from macro analysts pointing to $5–$8B of potential first-year demand if allocations scale. Simple market-cap mechanics put that in the $8–$10 XRP range if those flows materialize and stay inside the system. Second, CME’s Spot-Quoted XRP futures deepen the professional toolkit, letting macro and relative-value desks express XRP views within a regulated futures framework. That increases the odds that breaks of $2.00, $2.28 or $2.60 happen with real institutional volume behind them instead of shallow exchange squeezes. Third, the January 1, 2026 escrow event, with up to 1 billion XRP scheduled to unlock, will shape year-end positioning. Historically, a large portion is re-locked, but traders still treat it as a supply event. If XRP-USD is trading heavy below $2.00 into late December, the unlock will be used as an excuse to lean bearish; if ETFs keep absorbing and price holds $1.96–$1.90, the same event can be digested with minimal chart damage.

Authoritative View On XRP-USD: Direction, Bias And Core Risk Line

Putting all of this together, XRP-USD is in an accumulation-style range with institutional structure improving faster than price. The ETF pipeline, CME futures listing, tokenization narrative and RLUSD multichain expansion argue for a constructive medium-term bias, not a collapsing asset. At the same time, the chart is ruthless on levels. As long as $1.96–$1.90 holds on daily closes, the market keeps a viable path toward $2.35 first and then $2.50–$2.60, which would represent roughly +25–35% from the current band. A clean loss of $1.90 invalidates that bullish setup and shifts focus to $1.82 and potentially $1.52, implying downside of roughly 5–20% before real structural support. Under current data, with nearly $1B already sitting in spot ETFs and new derivatives plumbing coming online, the balance of evidence leans bullish but not yet triggered: price is waiting for a decisive break of $2.00–$2.28 to confirm the next leg, while the real risk line for this thesis is simple and visible – a sustained daily close below $1.90 on XRP-USD.

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