Cable at $1.3526 Tests 1.3580 as Vacancies Hit 707,000 and the Fed-BoE Gap Narrows to 12.5 Basis Points

Sterling traded $1.3526 against the dollar at 09:06 BST Tuesday, down 0.18% from Monday's close, after softer UK labour-market data triggered profit-taking on a five-session advance. The pair drifted toward $1.3520 through the European session and held comfortably above the 1.3500 handle.

Monday delivered the high. GBP/USD reached 1.3571 — its strongest print since May 12 and a three-month peak — closing at 1.3552 for a 0.14% gain as weak US data drained expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate increase. That was the fifth consecutive session of gains, built on a late-July recovery that cleared several key moving averages.

Cable is up 0.77% over the past month and 0.37% over twelve months. Against a 2026 that has produced no directional trend, the move from the 1.3440 support area to 1.3571 represents 131 pips, or 0.97%, over roughly two weeks.

The retreat was orderly rather than sharp. Sterling remains the second-best performer among the majors on the month, and the correction came from a data release that arrived at 07:00 BST and had been fully telegraphed as the week's first test.

Cross-rate performance separated the UK story from the dollar story. GBP/EUR traded around 1.1684, down 0.07% to 0.1%, below Monday's close near 1.1697 after failing to hold above 1.1700. GBP/JPY rose 0.07% to 216.05. Sterling falling against the euro while rising against the yen means this was a domestic repricing, not a broad risk move.

The dollar found support from a separate channel. Renewed US-Iran tensions lifted Brent crude to $90.97 and pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.323%, the highest since 2007. That combination restores the greenback's carry and its haven bid simultaneously, and it hit every major pair — the euro fell 0.06%, the Australian dollar 0.06%, and the yen 0.20%.

Sterling's 0.18% decline sits in the middle of that pack, which means UK-specific selling added roughly 12 basis points to a broad dollar move.

Wednesday brings UK CPI and the FOMC minutes within hours of each other.

The Labour Report: Unemployment Held at 4.9%, Employment Missed by 46,000

The Office for National Statistics released labour-market data for the three months to June at 07:00 BST, and the print missed on every line the market watches.

The ILO unemployment rate held at 4.9% against consensus expectations for a decline to 4.8%. That is not a deterioration — the rate did not rise — but it is a failure to improve in a quarter where forecasters expected the labour market to stabilize.

Employment increased by 83,000 during the second quarter against forecasts for a 129,000 gain. The 46,000 shortfall is a 35.7% miss against consensus and the clearest evidence in the release that hiring momentum has stalled rather than merely cooled.

The number of payrolled employees declined by an estimated 13,000 in July, marking the sixth successive monthly decline. Six consecutive months of falling payrolls is a trend, not noise, and it is the single most consistent signal in the UK dataset this year.

Job vacancies fell to 707,000 in the three months to July, their lowest level since 2021. That figure has been declining steadily from the post-pandemic peak and now sits below the pre-2020 baseline in several sectors, which removes the labour-shortage argument that supported wage growth through 2024 and 2025.

The claimant count had been forecast at 11,200 against a prior reading of 6,700, and the direction of that series aligns with the payroll decline.

Taken together, the release describes a labour market that is loosening on the extensive margin — fewer jobs advertised, fewer people on payrolls, hiring below expectations — without producing the unemployment rate increase that would force a policy response.

That combination is the hardest configuration for a central bank facing energy-driven inflation. Slack is building, but slowly, and the inflation impulse arriving through Brent at $90.97 is immediate.

Sterling's reaction was modest precisely because the data cuts both ways. Cooling employment reduces the case for further tightening, which is bearish for the pound. It also raises the probability that the Bank of England eventually eases, which is bearish for a different reason.

The market split the difference at 18 basis points.

Private-Sector Wage Growth at 2.8% — the Weakest Since Late 2020

The number that matters most to the Bank of England is private-sector regular earnings growth, and it slowed to 2.8% year-over-year — the weakest rate since late 2020.

That is the metric the Monetary Policy Committee has cited repeatedly as its gauge of how sticky domestic inflation actually is. Services inflation has been running near 3.7% in recent readings, and the committee's argument for holding rather than cutting has rested on the assumption that wage growth would sustain that services pressure.

At 2.8%, private-sector pay is running below headline CPI. Real wages are contracting, and the wage-price feedback loop that justified restrictive policy is breaking down in the data.

The five-year trajectory frames how far this has come. Private-sector regular earnings ran above 7% at the 2023 peak, moderated through 2024 and 2025, and have now undercut the 3% threshold the Bank has treated as consistent with the 2% inflation target. That is a completed disinflation on the labour-cost side.

The problem is that labour costs are no longer the binding constraint on UK inflation. Energy is. Brent at $90.97 and a UK economy that imports the majority of its energy means the inflation impulse now arrives through the import channel rather than through domestic pay settlements, and the Bank cannot address that with rate policy without doing real damage to an economy already showing six consecutive months of payroll decline.

That tension is why sterling's reaction to the wage print was so contained. In a normal cycle, private-sector pay collapsing to a six-year low would take 60 to 80 pips off Cable within an hour. Tuesday's release took 18 basis points.

Money markets did not fully reprice. Roughly 30 basis points of Bank of England tightening remains priced by year-end, with a 25 basis point December increase effectively fully discounted. Traders are holding a hiking bias against wage data that argues against one, because the energy shock overrides the labour data in the reaction function.

That is a fragile position. If Wednesday's CPI comes in soft, the December pricing unwinds and sterling loses its only remaining support.

Vacancies at 707,000 and Six Straight Months of Payroll Decline

The extensive-margin data is where the UK labour market has genuinely deteriorated, and the numbers are unambiguous.

Vacancies at 707,000 in the three months to July are the lowest since 2021. That series peaked above 1.3 million in mid-2022 and has now given back nearly half its post-pandemic surge, which means the buffer of unfilled positions that absorbed labour-market weakness for three years is largely exhausted.

Payrolled employment declined by approximately 13,000 in July, the sixth consecutive monthly fall. Cumulatively, that run has removed a meaningful headcount from the formal employment base without pushing the unemployment rate above 4.9%, which implies the adjustment is coming through reduced participation and through workers exiting the payroll system rather than through registered joblessness.

Employment rising 83,000 in the quarter against a 129,000 forecast completes the picture. The headline employment measure is still growing while payrolled employment falls, a divergence that typically reflects self-employment absorbing displaced workers.

The characterization from those tracking the data is that the jobs market is cool, and that reading underpins forecasts for no Bank of England rate move until next spring, with at least two cuts in 2027 unless the energy shock proves severe and persistent.

That is the fundamental case against sterling at 1.3526 and the reason consensus forecasts sit below spot. The projected path runs 1.3327 by September, 1.3385 by December, and 1.3479 by March 2027 — a survey of 25 providers carrying a bearish bias against a pair currently trading 1.5% above the September consensus.

The counter is that consensus has been wrong all year. Sterling has held a 1.30 to 1.40 band through a labour-market deterioration, a change of government, and an energy shock, because the pound's direction has been set by the dollar rather than by UK fundamentals.

Cable at 1.3526 is being priced by the Federal Reserve, not by the Office for National Statistics.

That relationship is what Wednesday's dual calendar tests.

The BoE Holds 3.75% With 30 Basis Points Priced by Year-End

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on July 30, its fifth hold of 2026, in a split vote that flagged upside risks to inflation. The June 18 decision was also a hold, delivered 7–2 with two members voting to raise to 4.00%.

Five consecutive holds with a persistent hawkish minority describes a committee that is not cutting and cannot justify hiking. That is the position sterling has been trading on all year, and it is quietly supportive of the currency: a central bank refusing to ease while others do provides carry.

Money markets carry roughly 30 basis points of tightening by year-end, with a 25 basis point December increase fully priced. That pricing survived Tuesday's labour data intact, which is the most informative fact in the session.

The tension is explicit. Softer domestic labour data argues for no move and eventual cuts. The inflation threat from energy argues for the hike the market has priced. Money markets are holding the hawkish position because Brent at $90.97 hits the UK harder than it hits the US — Britain imports substantially more of its energy, and both the Bank and the Fed explicitly flagged energy-driven supply shocks in their June guidance.

The alternative reading is that the labour data pushes the next move to next spring, with at least two cuts in 2027 unless the energy shock becomes severe and persistent. That path implies the December hike currently priced never arrives, and sterling loses 30 basis points of embedded carry.

The UK CPI trajectory is what settles it. Inflation eased to 2.6% in June from 2.8% in May, with services running near 3.7%. Wednesday's July print is expected to accelerate to a four-month high on headline while the core rate may ease — a split outcome that would leave the committee no clearer than it is now.

The Bank Rate at 3.75% against the ECB deposit rate at 2.25% leaves a 150 basis point differential in sterling's favour against the euro. That gap is the structural support beneath GBP/EUR and the reason the cross has held near one-year highs through a deteriorating UK dataset.

Against the dollar, the differential is a different story entirely.

Wednesday's CPI Is the Print That Decides the Range

UK consumer price data lands Wednesday, and it is the single event that determines whether Cable retests 1.3570 or breaks 1.3500.

Headline inflation is expected to accelerate to a four-month high, driven by energy costs feeding through from Brent's climb from roughly $72 in early July to $90.97 Tuesday. The core rate may ease, reflecting the wage disinflation the labour report confirmed.

Those two components pointing in opposite directions is the entire policy problem in one release.

A stronger-than-expected headline offsets the dovish implications of the jobs report and revives expectations for another Bank of England increase. That would let GBP/USD challenge 1.3570 again and then the 1.3600 area. A softer print confirms that the December hike currently priced by money markets is unlikely to arrive, and sterling loses the carry premium supporting it.

The complication is that headline inflation driven by imported energy is precisely the category the Bank has historically looked through. Raising rates to combat a price increase caused by a shipping lane in the Persian Gulf does nothing to the underlying inflation dynamic and everything to a domestic economy showing six consecutive months of payroll decline.

The government has already acted to blunt the energy pass-through. The first cost-of-living measure temporarily cuts VAT on household electricity from 5% to zero for six months beginning October 1, reducing the typical annualized bill by around £45 at a cost of approximately £850 million in 2026–27. That mechanically lowers headline inflation from the fourth quarter onward, which further weakens the case for a December hike.

The measure is funded by cancelling the previous government's planned £1.8 billion digital ID programme, though the fiscal saving is contested since that programme's funding was never fully identified.

The FOMC minutes land the same day, which means Wednesday delivers both sides of the pair within hours. UK CPI at 07:00 BST, Fed minutes at 19:00 BST.

Friday brings UK retail sales, S&P Global composite PMI, US flash PMIs, and Jackson Hole.

The Rate Differential Is Effectively Zero — 12.5 Basis Points

The structural change in this pair through 2026 is that the interest-rate differential has collapsed to nothing.

The Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%. The Federal Reserve holds its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. At the midpoint of 3.625%, the differential is 12.5 basis points in sterling's favour — effectively zero for a pair that historically traded on a spread measured in whole percentage points.

That matters more than any single data release. When the rate differential disappears, GBP/USD stops being an interest-rate trade and becomes sensitive to sentiment, positioning and political headlines instead. Price action turns choppier and less predictable, which is exactly what the 1.30 to 1.40 range through 2026 describes.

Both central banks are also positioned identically. The Fed held on July 28 in a 9–3 decision with three policymakers preferring a quarter-point increase. The Bank held on July 30 in a split vote flagging upside inflation risks with two members voting for 4.00%. Two committees, both on hold, both carrying a hawkish minority, both citing energy.

The forward pricing has begun to diverge. Money markets carry roughly 30 basis points of BoE tightening by year-end. Fed September hike odds have collapsed to approximately 35% from close to 50% a week ago, with hold probability at 69.9% and year-end tightening no longer fully priced.

If both paths hold, the differential widens toward 40 basis points in sterling's favour by December. That is the entire bull case for Cable, and it is worth roughly 200 to 300 pips on historical sensitivity.

If the Fed minutes reveal a broader hawkish bloc than the 9–3 vote implied, the differential compresses back toward zero and Cable returns to the 1.3400 handle.

The euro comparison is instructive. GBP/EUR has held near one-year highs on a 150 basis point differential that dwarfs anything in the dollar pair, and that cross is now under pressure because the ECB is roughly 84% priced for a September hike while the Bank sits on its hands.

Sterling's carry advantage is eroding on both crosses simultaneously

What Actually Moved Cable: US Retail Sales at Negative 0.6%

Sterling's five-session advance to 1.3571 had almost nothing to do with the United Kingdom, and the timing proves it.

The move began in earnest in the second half of last week when a clear dollar-selling bias emerged, driven by a spike in US long-dated borrowing costs and a shock slump in July retail sales. That release printed negative 0.6% against expectations for a 0.1% gain — a 70 basis point downside surprise on the headline. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3% against a forecast 0.2% gain.

The University of Michigan sentiment index dropped to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July. July housing starts collapsed 12.4% to a 1.239 million annualized rate against a 1.35 million forecast, with single-family starts down 9.9% to 808,000. July CPI came in tame, though Thursday's core PPI printed firmer and briefly reversed part of the dollar decline.

That sequence — weak consumption, weak housing, soft inflation — collapsed September Fed hike odds and took the dollar to its lowest level since early June.

Sterling was the passive beneficiary. UK data through the same period offered nothing to trade on. Second-quarter GDP expanded 0.4%, matching expectations and following 0.6% in the first quarter, and the print failed to generate meaningful sterling demand because investors questioned whether that pace could be sustained through the second half.

The pound trended broadly higher through the first part of last week during a data lull, which left the move without a clear domestic driver, then drifted through midweek before the US numbers did the work.

That dependency is the risk. A pair driven entirely by the counter-currency reverses when the counter-currency's story changes, and Cable at 1.3526 carries no domestic support beneath it if the Fed repricing unwinds.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the test. The July statement was unusually brief, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently argued for leaner central bank communication, which makes the minutes the only detailed view of the internal balance of opinion available.

A hawkish reveal takes the dollar back and Cable with it.

The Dollar Broke to 99.29 and Sterling Took the Handoff

The Dollar Index fell to 99.29 early Monday, its lowest level since June 5, and in doing so broke the bullish trendline defining its ascent from the January low at 95.55. That technical breakdown is the mechanical driver behind Cable's three-month high.

The composition of the dollar's weakness is unusual and matters for how durable the sterling advance proves. DXY at 99.29 with the 30-year Treasury at 5.323% is not monetary easing. It is capital demanding higher compensation to hold US duration while reducing exposure to the currency — a term-premium event driven by fiscal arithmetic rather than by the policy rate.

US federal debt has surpassed $39 trillion with annual interest servicing above $1 trillion. That constrains the Federal Reserve regardless of any individual inflation print, and it is the structural argument for dollar depreciation running beneath the cyclical rate story.

Tuesday reversed part of it. The dollar gained against every major — sterling down 0.18%, the euro down 0.06%, the Australian dollar down 0.06%, the yen down 0.20% to a two-week low — as Brent reached $90.97 and long-dated yields rose globally.

That reversal illustrates the constraint on sterling's upside. Risk-off moves boost the dollar and temporarily override rate differentials, and every escalation in the Strait of Hormuz reasserts the haven channel. The US-Iran memorandum expired Monday without replacement, Hormuz transits fell to five vessels Saturday and zero Sunday against 31 the prior weekend, and there is no diplomatic channel with US participation currently running.

For sterling specifically, energy escalation is a double hit. It strengthens the dollar through the haven bid and it damages the UK economy through the import channel, since Britain imports more of its energy than the United States produces domestically. Both central banks flagged energy-driven supply shocks in June, and a renewed spike historically hits the UK harder.

Low summer volatility and demand for higher-yielding currencies have underpinned the pound during quieter trading. That support disappears when volatility returns.

DXY holding above 99.00 caps Cable. Losing it resumes the advance toward 1.3600.

Q2 GDP at 0.4% and the Consumption Problem Underneath It

The UK economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, matching expectations and following 0.6% growth in the first. June monthly GDP rose 0.3%, stronger than anticipated.

On the surface that is a resilient economy — 1.0% cumulative growth across two quarters, outpacing the eurozone's 0.4% second quarter and roughly matching it on the half-year.

The composition is the problem. Household consumption growth slowed to 0.2%, highlighting continued pressure on consumers. Growth of 0.4% headline with consumption at 0.2% means the expansion is being carried by investment, government spending and net trade rather than by the household sector that represents the majority of the economy.

Sterling investors read it that way. The preliminary second-quarter estimate failed to ignite support because market participants voiced scepticism about whether that pace could be sustained through the second half of 2026.

The forward-looking data supports the scepticism. Six consecutive months of payroll decline, vacancies at 707,000 and a five-year low in private-sector wage growth are not inputs that produce accelerating consumption. Add Brent at $90.97 feeding through to household energy bills and the second-half consumption path deteriorates from a 0.2% base.

The growth outlook is tipped to slow after a strong first half, and that is the consensus position behind forecasts putting Cable at 1.3327 by September.

One genuine offset has emerged. AI-linked IT demand and business investment are adding a new source of growth to the UK economy that did not exist in prior cycles, and that investment channel is what carried the second quarter when consumption stalled.

Whether it scales is the open question. Business investment responds to financing conditions, and UK gilt yields have been rising alongside every other developed sovereign curve as the global term premium expands.

Friday's retail sales and composite PMI give the first read on the third quarter. Retail sales specifically test whether the consumption slowdown from 0.2% has continued or stabilized.

A weak print there compounds Wednesday's CPI risk.

The Fiscal Overhang: Gilts, the November Budget and a £850 Million VAT Cut

Sterling carries a political risk premium that the euro and the dollar do not, and the November Budget is when it gets priced.

UK gilt yields remain a pressure point for the currency, particularly as markets look ahead to the new Chancellor's first Budget in the autumn. That event now sits roughly ten weeks out, and every fiscal announcement between now and then is read as a signal about the scale of consolidation required.

The government's first cost-of-living measure has already landed. VAT on household electricity will be temporarily cut from 5% to zero for six months beginning October 1, reducing the typical annualized bill by around £45 at a cost of approximately £850 million in 2026–27. Ministers say it is funded by cancelling the previous government's planned £1.8 billion digital ID programme.

That funding claim is contested. The digital ID programme's money had never been fully identified, which weakens the argument that cancelling it creates a straightforward cash saving. For a market watching UK fiscal credibility ahead of a Budget, an £850 million giveaway funded from a questionable offset is a small number carrying a disproportionate signal.

The macro effect is modest but real. The measure mechanically lowers headline inflation from the fourth quarter and provides household relief at the margin, which further undercuts the case for the December Bank of England hike that money markets still carry.

Cabinet unity behind the Prime Minister has trimmed the political risk premium relative to earlier in the year, and sterling has traded better since. That improvement is fragile and reverses on any leadership or coalition headline.

The gilt channel is where fiscal risk transmits to the exchange rate. Long-dated sovereign yields rose across every major market Tuesday, with the US 30-year at 5.323% and the German 10-year Bund at 3.21% — a fifteen-year high. UK long-dated gilts are participating in that global repricing while carrying an additional domestic fiscal question.

A gilt market that sells off for UK-specific reasons weakens sterling rather than supporting it, which inverts the normal yield-currency relationship.

That inversion is the tail risk into November.

Cross-Rate Read: GBP/EUR at 1.1684 and GBP/JPY at 216.05

The cross-rate performance separates sterling weakness from dollar strength, and Tuesday's split is informative.

GBP/EUR traded around 1.1684, down 0.07% to 0.1% on the day, below Monday's close near 1.1697 after failing to hold above 1.1700. That failure matters because the cross has been pressing one-year highs on a 150 basis point Bank of England-ECB differential, and it is now stalling.

The reason is convergence from the other side. The ECB deposit rate sits at 2.25% after June's first hike since 2023, and money markets price roughly 70% to 90% odds of a further 25 basis point increase on September 10 taking it to 2.50%, with 2.75% fully priced by early 2027. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July with core at 2.5%, and second-quarter eurozone GDP printed 0.4% against a 0.2% forecast.

The eurozone now has the accelerating inflation problem and the improving growth data. The UK has decelerating wages, six months of payroll decline and consumption at 0.2%. That flips the relative story, and the consensus path for GBP/EUR runs 1.1612 by late 2026 and 1.1505 by early 2027 — roughly 0.6% and 1.5% below spot.

GBP/JPY rose 0.07% to 216.05, and sterling gaining against the yen while losing against the euro and dollar confirms this was not a broad pound liquidation. The yen is trading its own dynamic, with USD/JPY at 159.638 near a two-week high as the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.323% and prior intervention continues to shape positioning.

That mixed cross-rate performance underlines the influence of drivers outside the UK labour data. Renewed US-Iran tensions supported the dollar. Intervention history shapes yen trading. Neither permits clean attribution of the full session to the domestic release.

Sterling's genuine signal Tuesday was against the euro. Down 0.07% on a day when UK employment missed by 46,000 and private-sector pay hit a six-year low is a contained reaction, and it says the cross is being held up by the rate differential rather than by conviction.

That differential narrows every time the ECB prices another hike.

Technical Structure: 1.3580 Above, 1.3440 Below

The daily chart retains a bullish near-term bias with spot holding above both the 100-day simple moving average and the Bollinger middle band. Price is advancing toward the upper Bollinger band, which caps the topside, and the 14-period Relative Strength Index sits near 64 — positive territory, short of overbought, describing momentum that is constructive without being overstretched.

The four-hour structure is where the immediate levels sit. Cable found support near 1.3440, launched an advance above the 1.3500 resistance zone, and settled above 1.3520 along with both the four-hour 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages. It attempted to settle above 1.3565 and failed.

Resistance is layered and specific. The major hurdle is 1.3580, which coincides with Monday's 1.3571 high and the failed 1.3565 attempt. Above that, 1.3620 is the next barrier, and a close above 1.3620 opens a steady advance toward 1.3700 with 1.3750 behind it.

Support is equally defined. Bids sit near 1.3500, with a bullish trend line providing support at 1.3510. Beneath that, 1.3450 is the next major level alongside the four-hour 100-period average. The daily structure puts initial demand at the Bollinger middle band at 1.3440, then the 100-day SMA at 1.3420 as a deeper but still supportive layer, with the Bollinger lower band near 1.3275 marking a distant structural floor.

The compression between 1.3440 and 1.3580 is 140 pips, or roughly 1.0% of spot, and Cable has spent the past two weeks resolving from the bottom of that band toward the top.

Volatility has collapsed across the FX complex during the summer period, which has supported demand for higher-yielding currencies including sterling and has kept ranges tight. That regime ends when a catalyst arrives, and two land Wednesday.

The 1.3500 handle is the line that separates the constructive daily structure from a failed breakout. Holding it through Wednesday's CPI keeps 1.3580 in play. Losing it puts the 1.3440 to 1.3420 support cluster under immediate test.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: 1.3620 and 1.3440 Decide the Range

The forecast reduces to two levels and one 24-hour window.

Upside case. Cable at 1.3526 must first reclaim 1.3552 — Monday's close — and then clear 1.3571 to 1.3580, the zone that has capped two attempts. A daily close above 1.3580 opens 1.3600 and then 1.3620, which is the confirmation level. Clearing 1.3620 puts 1.3700 in play with 1.3750 behind it. The required inputs are specific: a stronger-than-expected UK headline CPI Wednesday morning that offsets the dovish labour report and keeps the December Bank of England hike priced, followed by dovish FOMC minutes that confirm the September hold. Both must land the same day.

Base case target for August: 1.3580. Bullish target on a confirmed break: 1.3700.

Downside case. Losing 1.3500 and the bullish trendline at 1.3510 puts 1.3450 under immediate test, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 1.3440 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3420. That cluster is the floor of the August advance. Below it, the pair reverts to the consensus path — 1.3327 by September and 1.3385 by December, drawn from a 25-provider survey carrying a bearish bias. A soft UK CPI print that kills December hike pricing, combined with hawkish Fed minutes, produces that outcome directly.

Downside target on a dovish CPI: 1.3440 initially, 1.3327 on continuation.

The variable neither scenario controls is crude. Brent at $90.97 with Hormuz transits at zero and the US SPR at 1982 lows is a stagflationary tax on a net energy importer, and Britain imports more of its energy than the United States. Every escalation strengthens the dollar through the haven channel and weakens the UK growth path simultaneously. That is a double hit sterling cannot offset with a 12.5 basis point rate advantage.

Verdict: this rally belongs to the dollar, not to the pound. UK employment missed by 46,000, payrolls fell for a sixth straight month, vacancies hit a 2021 low, and private-sector pay printed its weakest reading since late 2020 — and Cable lost 18 basis points. Sterling at 1.3526 is trading a Federal Reserve repricing with no domestic support underneath it. Wednesday decides whether 1.3620 or 1.3440 prints first, and the labour data argues for the lower number.

That's TradingNEWS