Ethereum Defends $2,344 as $2.57B Dump Fails—Will ETH-USD Break Above $2,535?
With smart money buying the dip and ETF inflows steady, Ethereum’s breakout hinges on reclaiming $2,535—next target $2,850 | That's TradingNEWS
ETH-USD Absorbs $2.57B in Whale Selling as Key Support Holds Firm at $2,344
Ethereum has taken on more than $2.57 billion in selling pressure from large holders in just 48 hours—1.06 million ETH dumped by wallets in the 1M–10M range. Yet despite this outflow, ETH-USD has refused to break below its critical $2,344 demand zone. This area, where 65.83 million ETH were accumulated (valued at over $159 billion), has become the backbone of bullish defense. Until bears break this level decisively, the downside case remains unconfirmed.
Price Compresses Between $2,400–$2,476: Tension Builds Before the Break
Ethereum has flattened into a tight coil, trading sideways between $2,400 and $2,476. The $2,415 zone continues to act as short-term support, while resistance at $2,476—also aligned with the 200 EMA—blocks upside continuation. A breakout here exposes $2,535, and clearing that level flips the setup bullish, with targets at $2,732 and a possible extension to $2,850. Only a confirmed daily close above $2,850 sets the stage for a run toward $3,400.
Death Cross Alert: 50SMA Nearing Breakdown vs. 100SMA on Weekly Chart
The 50-week moving average is inches from slipping under the 100-week SMA, threatening a bearish death cross. The last time this formation emerged in November 2022, ETH collapsed 35% from $1,680 to $1,080. If the structure repeats, Ethereum could be vulnerable to a steep drop toward $1,700. Weekly momentum indicators remain split: RSI hovers near 51, while stochastic oscillators flirt with overbought zones, raising the stakes for the next move.
Smart Money Buys the Dip Despite Retail Fear and ETF Friction
Not all hands are selling. Whale wallets like 0x1fc7 and SharpLink have added over 3,800 ETH combined, totaling $9.3M+ in net inflows. These actions come despite retail fear and the market’s inability to rally on ETF news. On-chain data confirms that Ethereum accumulation just hit a record high, signaling smart money isn’t betting against the asset. Still, ETH's price hasn’t responded, showing sentiment and liquidity remain decoupled from fundamentals.
ETF Inflows Steady but Sentiment Cautious: $3,000 Resistance Remains the Wall
Even as ETF products tied to Ethereum saw modest inflows, ETH-USD has failed to reclaim $3,000—the level that’s acted as a ceiling since late Q1. Price topped out at $2,800 before retracing 31%, and now trades around $2,427. Analysts eye $2,535 and $2,850 as structural confirmation zones. Without those, it’s just a sideways grind beneath a macro lid.
Wyckoff Setup Forming: $2,850 Breakout Could Trigger Altseason Surge
Ethereum’s chart mirrors a Wyckoff reaccumulation structure, where prolonged sideways action leads to a vertical breakout. A clean breach of $2,850 would validate that pattern. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance sits at 65.77%—near the threshold that historically flips capital toward altcoins. If BTC crosses 70%, Ethereum stands to benefit directly from altseason inflows, pushing ETH-USD past $3,400.
Trump’s Tariffs and Fed Chair Drama Add Fire to the Macro Mix
Macro risk remains front and center. President Trump’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on Canadian dairy and digital services jolted crypto markets, pushing Ethereum briefly below $2,400. Meanwhile, Trump’s vow to replace Jerome Powell with a pro-cut candidate has sparked interest-rate volatility. The Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped 0.2%, which could act as a tailwind for ETH if dollar weakness persists into July.
Liquidation Flush Clears $50M in Leverage: Sentiment Still Subdued
Over the past day, Ethereum futures saw $50.31 million in total liquidations, skewed toward longs ($35.38M) versus shorts ($14.93M). Funding rates remain mildly negative, and volumes are stagnating. Sentiment has turned sour despite inflows and technical compression, showing traders need a breakout to reset positioning. Until then, fear dominates.
ETH-USD Trade Setup: Critical Levels for July Setup
Key resistance remains $2,470–$2,535. A clean close above $2,535 opens the way to $2,732, with $2,850 as the breakout trigger. A push through that unlocks $3,400. On the flip side, if ETH breaks below $2,390, expect fast acceleration toward $2,205 and potentially $1,700 in a worst-case death cross scenario.
Long-Term Projection Still Aims at $10,000 Peak as Cycle Structure Persists
Macrocycle analysts are holding firm. Ethereum’s current chart structure echoes the 2017 and 2021 cycle setups that led to 50–400x rallies. If that plays out, ETH-USD may be heading toward $10,000 this cycle. A sustained break of $3,000 would confirm that trajectory. Until then, it’s all about defending $2,344 and breaking $2,850.
Final Rating: Hold Ethereum Now—Buy Above $2,535, Sell Below $2,390
Ethereum remains structurally bullish, but sentiment, ETF friction, and macro risk are capping its upside. The verdict: Hold for now. If ETH-USD closes above $2,535, initiate Buy. If it slips below $2,390, the setup flips Bearish. This is a pressure cooker market—once it breaks, expect sharp momentum in either direction.
