Ethereum (ETH-USD) Fights for $2,250 as Whales Sell, RSI Dips to 34, and Breakdown Targets $2,000

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Flirts With Breakdown as Bearish Confluence Aligns Below $2,250

ETH-USD Struggles as $2,515 Neckline Cracks Under Pressure

Ethereum's recent breakdown beneath the neckline at $2,515 signaled a pivotal structural shift in market sentiment. This level, once critical support during its May run to $2,568, failed to hold as the cryptocurrency dropped over 13% last week, slicing through its 50-day EMA at $2,416 and bottoming near $2,114. The breach of the $2,515 neckline finalizes a clear head-and-shoulders pattern, confirming bears are now in control of short-term direction. This technical failure is compounded by a bearish MACD crossover and a continued red histogram build beneath the neutral line — textbook signals of accelerating downward momentum.

ETH Price Bounces From $2,100, But Resistance Looms Near $2,340–$2,400 Range

After reaching as low as $2,131, ETH-USD staged a modest rebound toward the $2,200–$2,250 range. But traders are now eyeing two key resistance zones: the $2,280 area, where a descending trendline has formed on the hourly chart, and the broader $2,335–$2,402 band, which IntoTheBlock data identifies as the largest unrealized loss cluster. Over 65 million ETH sit trapped above this range — creating a heavy overhead barrier, as bag holders may sell aggressively to exit break-even.

Adding to the ceiling is the 50% Fib retracement level from the $2,568 high to the $2,114 low, which sits at $2,340. The next critical resistance above remains at $2,400 and $2,500. Only a clean break above $2,500 would invalidate this bearish trajectory and open a window for recovery toward $2,620.

Volume Spike Below Trendline Hints at Capitulation, Not Accumulation

ETH/BTC's technical structure failed dramatically on June 21, breaking down from a previously bullish flag formation. A large red daily candle on high volume confirmed trendline loss — suggesting institutions are not stepping in yet. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and MACD on the daily both signal heavy selling pressure. Even the RSI slipped to 34, well below neutral and nearing oversold, with no bullish divergence in sight. This confluence indicates Ethereum may continue to underperform Bitcoin in the near term. ETH/BTC historically serves as a macro risk gauge for altcoins, and the breakdown here speaks to systemic weakness.

Whale Movements Confirm Institutional Disinterest at Current Levels

Fresh on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence revealed a $45 million ETH transfer to Binance earlier this week, likely a strategic exit by a high-net-worth wallet anticipating further downside. This joins other large holders rotating out of ETH as it fails to reclaim key moving averages. The broader IOMAP shows lighter support volume between $1,924 and $2,263 — creating little cushion if ETH fails to hold $2,150. This further affirms that $2,000 remains the final strong psychological support before cascading toward $1,737 and $1,560 — levels tied to Fib retracements and March accumulation.

Geopolitical Volatility Amplifies ETH Fragility With $2,000 at Risk

The U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities this past weekend sent shockwaves through the crypto space. Ethereum dipped below $2,200 intraday, reinforcing the market's sensitivity to geopolitical catalysts. With Bitcoin also testing support near $100,000 and showing a weak RSI of 38, the risk-off mood is spilling into ETH. Should Middle East tensions escalate further, capital could rotate into stablecoins or cash, triggering accelerated liquidations below $2,100. As of press time, ETH is trading at $2,243, barely clinging above local support.

Technical Forecast: Lower Highs Confirm Bearish Structure — Recovery Needs $2,400 Flip

Ethereum remains below its 100-hour SMA and locked in a downward trend channel. The next attempt to retake $2,280 will likely define whether bulls can mount any credible short-term rally. If ETH can pierce $2,320 and hold above $2,400 — with volume confirmation — the upside opens toward $2,500 and potentially $2,550. But barring that, the weight of trapped sellers between $2,335 and $2,402 is expected to cap gains and pull the price back to $2,120 and eventually $2,000. RSI and MACD momentum do not yet support a sustained reversal.

Verdict: ETH-USD Is in a Bearish Breakdown With No Accumulation Signal Yet — Hold Bias Below $2,400, Bearish Below $2,150

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