Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD at $3,050 - Whale Selling Pressure Shape Outlook

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Faces Bearish Pressure But Retains Long-Term Upside Potential

ETH-USD Price Action and Whale Activity

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades near $3,045, down roughly 2%, after sliding from a local high of $3,248. The recent decline forms an evening star pattern at the resistance line of a falling wedge, a structure historically signaling potential short-term weakness. On-chain data shows that mid-tier holders — wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH — have been offloading positions since Ethereum’s prior peak near $4,955, creating persistent sell pressure. This group has reduced its collective holdings by nearly 5% since October, tightening short-term liquidity.

Technical Setup and Downside Risk Zones

Ethereum’s price is currently below key moving averages — the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs — confirming a bearish alignment. A breakdown under $3,000 would likely trigger further selling toward $2,500, aligning with wedge support around $2,115. A death crossover between the 100- and 200-day EMAs is forming, typically a precursor to deeper corrections. Still, the $3,000–$3,070 area remains a pivotal support zone; if defended with strong volume, a rebound to $3,466 or even $4,250 remains viable.

Fractal Formation Signals Potential Reversal

Despite the pullback, Ethereum’s structure mirrors Solana’s fractal pattern seen before its 23% rally in October 2024. Both assets exhibited a double-bottom breakout followed by a retest of neckline support around the 50-day MA. Ethereum’s current price movement replicates that setup, with the retest near $3,024 forming a bullish confluence. Should this fractal remain intact, a short-term upside toward $3,500 is possible before facing renewed resistance.

Network Strength and Fusaka Upgrade Impact

The Fusaka upgrade, featuring PeerDAS (EIP-7594), improves throughput and reduces congestion across Ethereum’s mainnet and Layer-2s. The upgrade expands blob data capacity, boosting rollup efficiency and cutting transaction fees — crucial for scaling DeFi and NFT activity. Developers report smoother Layer-2 performance and lower latency for high-volume protocols. This update strengthens Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals, mitigating network strain during bull cycles.

Market Structure and Institutional Dynamics

Institutional flows into ETH-based products remain stable, with CME open interest up 12% month-over-month, signaling sustained professional exposure. Meanwhile, spot volume on Binance and Coinbase declined 9% week-over-week as retail traders turned cautious. The ETH/BTC ratio sits at 0.034, still well below its historical mean of 0.0479, implying relative undervaluation. Some strategists expect parity normalization to push ETH toward $12,000 if Bitcoin (BTC-USD) retests $250,000, as projected by leading market analysts.

Whale Distribution and Emerging Competition

While Ethereum whales trim exposure, some large wallets are rotating into projects like Remittix (RTX), a new PayFi protocol offering real-world crypto-to-fiat settlement utility. Though speculative, this rotation underscores a shift toward yield-backed use cases amid Ethereum’s consolidation phase. However, Ethereum still dominates Layer-1 developer activity and remains the base for over 60% of DeFi TVL, maintaining its dominance in smart contract ecosystems.

Short-Term Outlook and Key Levels

If the $3,000 support breaks decisively, Ethereum could correct toward $2,800 and test the next demand zone at $2,400. Conversely, a strong defense with rising volume could push ETH above $3,200, restoring bullish structure. Volume confirmation remains key; fading liquidity would invalidate the bullish fractal.

Ethereum Price Forecast and Investment Bias

From a macro perspective, Ethereum’s mid-term outlook remains bullish despite the near-term bearish setup. The network’s scalability advances, consistent developer activity, and ETF inflow potential form a strong foundation. Near-term bias, however, leans neutral-to-bearish until $3,200 is reclaimed.

Verdict: Hold.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) consolidates near $3,045, with downside risk to $2,500 but long-term potential toward $12,000 if macro and technical catalysts align in 2026.

That's TradingNEWS