Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Falls to $3,965 as $134M Longs Wiped Out, ETF Outflows Pressure $4K Support
ETH-USD tests $3,875 support after 12% weekly slide; whales withdrew 210,452 ETH ($862M) while Grayscale sold $53.8M, leaving market torn between further downside to $3,626 or rebound toward $4,211 | That's TradingNEWS
Ethereum breaks $4,000 as liquidation wave rattles markets
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Macro and structural factors: Bitcoin dominance bites
Market context weighs heavily. Analysts such as Benjamin Cowen warn that Bitcoin’s dominance could climb back above 60%, siphoning liquidity away from altcoins. Ethereum also faces the challenge of absorbing supply shocks: 29% of circulating ETH is staked, reducing available liquidity but amplifying downside risk when demand cools. Meanwhile, anticipation builds around the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, 2025, which promises network efficiency gains. If institutional inflows resume alongside the upgrade, ETH could reestablish momentum toward $5,000 and beyond. Without it, downside probes toward $3,500–$3,800 remain likely.
Medium-term trajectory: path to $10,000 remains alive but delayed
Despite the near-term damage, structural forecasts still argue for ETH crossing $7,500–$10,000 by 2026, provided three pillars align: continued staking supply constraints, adoption of scaling upgrades, and institutional accumulation. ETF inflows, treasury strategies, and sovereign demand are critical variables. For now, ETH’s immediate narrative is defensive — holding $3,875–$3,900 is crucial. A confirmed rebound from here could quickly send price back to $4,211 resistance, while a failure exposes $3,626.At $3,965, Ethereum sits at a knife’s edge. Heavy liquidations, ETF outflows, and a collapsing long/short ratio argue for further downside, yet whale accumulation and oversold technicals hint at rebound potential. With December’s Fusaka upgrade looming and supply locked in staking, the long game remains bullish. In the near term, however, ETH-USD is a Hold with bearish bias, with tactical shorts favored unless $4,200 is reclaimed with conviction.
